Captain's log, July 7, 2026, light morning wind, building east breeze tonight

Tuesday, July 7. The morning starts friendly, but it is not staying flat all week.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:26 AM EDT. Light to gentle breezes hold across the Keys coastal waters today, then the breeze starts trending up tonight as the Atlantic ridge strengthens and lifts north into Central Florida. That matters. Today is the soft window. Wednesday night into Thursday gets a lot less comfortable.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots today. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are fishable, not glassy. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots today, seas 1 to 2 feet, and east to southeast wave detail at 2 feet every 4 seconds. Tonight the Straits build to 2 to 3 feet, with east to southeast wave detail at 3 feet every 5 seconds.

At Long Key, the 5:40 AM EDT NDBC observation had southeast wind at 9.9 knots with gusts to 13.0 knots. At Sombrero Key, the 5:40 AM EDT observation had east-southeast wind at 8.0 knots with gusts to 9.9 knots. Vaca Key in Florida Bay reported water temperature at 90.5 F at 5:18 AM EDT. Molasses Reef station MLRF1 still has no recent live observation because that station was disestablished in 2023.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots
Hawk Channel	around 1 foot, smooth to a light chop
Straits	1 to 2 feet, east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast 5 to 10 knots, smooth to a light chop
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.5 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef morning, fair outside look, watch the evening build

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the right lane this morning. East to southeast wind at 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot gives the reef boats enough comfort to fish right instead of just hanging on.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee are all fishable in this setup. The sea state is not the problem. Current and storm timing are the problem. If the chum pulls clean and the boat lays right, stay on it. If the slick hangs under the boat and the rods go quiet, move before the heat cooks the day.

Tonight is the shift. NOAA brings Hawk Channel up to east winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters becoming a light to moderate chop.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are fair today. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and a short 4 second wave period. That is not rough, but it is enough to make a small chop stack up if the current runs against the breeze.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of July 5 sits 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps the outside close enough to inspect from the upper reef line.

Close does not mean automatic. If there are birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a clean color edge, take the look. If it is just pretty water with no life, the reef is the better use of time.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is quiet early. NOAA has southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, bay waters smooth to a light chop, and a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The bay water is hot. Vaca Key was 90.5 F before sunrise. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat in that, but the clean work is early and late. Midday skinny water in July is a grind.

tides for tuesday, july 7

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	2:19 AM EDT	1.27 ft	overnight high
Low	9:04 AM EDT	0.01 ft	morning low
High	3:04 PM EDT	1.28 ft	afternoon high
Low	9:32 PM EDT	0.24 ft	evening low

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	4:17 AM EDT	0.55 ft	early high
Low	11:59 AM EDT	0.11 ft	midday low
High	4:44 PM EDT	0.42 ft	afternoon high
Low	11:42 PM EDT	0.14 ft	late low

For the reef, the morning low at 9:04 AM into the 3:04 PM high is the main piece of the day. Get set while that water starts to move. The yellowtail bite should be best once the current has enough direction to stretch the chum line.

The evening fall toward 9:32 PM can fish too, especially for mangroves and yellowtail, but the wind is forecast to build tonight. That makes the afternoon plan more important. Do the clean work before the ocean gets choppier.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses gets the outside option today because NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of the light. That is close enough to look if the reef bite slows or the water shows life outside.

Start with the reef. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 70 feet with moving water. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge with a real bait and patience. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows in the slick.

Conch reef

Conch should be steady in this wind. The 50 to 80 foot line gives room to yellowtail and still keep a mutton bait working.

Light morning wind lets you set the boat where it belongs. Use that. If the current runs wrong, reset instead of soaking a bad angle because the anchor is already down.

Davis reef

Davis is the clean Islamorada half day call. Short ride, reef depth, and enough structure to keep rods bent if the current cooperates.

Yellowtail are good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure and patch reef. Cero mackerel are fair when the bait gets pushed around the slick.

Crocker reef

Crocker is worth the deeper edge look today. I would spend time in 55 to 80 feet if the current points right on the rise.

Yellowtail are good. Muttons are fair, maybe better with fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or a small live grunt. If the current dies, do not sit there polishing the same dead spot.

Alligator reef

Alligator is the best all around call. The Gulf Stream edge is listed 7 NM southeast of the light, and the reef gives plenty of room without turning the whole day into a run.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and moving water.

The tower will draw boats. Let it. Fish the water, not the landmark.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable in this forecast. From Islamorada, the main question is time. The sea state is fine early, but the breeze comes up tonight and the week gets rougher.

If you are already running west, work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper side has a fair mutton shot. I would still spend the cleanest tide closer to Davis, Crocker, or Alligator unless Tennessee is already the plan.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef edge from Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 75 ft
Mutton snapper	fair	Conch, Crocker, Alligator, Tennessee deeper edge
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure and patch reef with moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks with bait on the reef
Mahi mahi	fair	short outside look only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat stacks up
Permit	fair early	moving water near cleaner edges
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The reef has enough comfort and the tide gives a real window from the 9:04 AM low into the 3:04 PM high. Keep the chum steady. Fish light enough. Do not feed them like you are trying to sink the boat.

Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Tennessee all deserve one good bait in the right place when the current runs. That is not a numbers game. It is a patience game.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator. Fair means go only if the ocean gives you a reason. No birds, no weed, no bait, no color, no run.

The flats are heat limited. Vaca Key was 90.5 F at 5:18 AM EDT. Early and late are the only honest windows.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Alligator has the best mix today. Davis is the easy half day. Molasses is worth a look if you want the outside option close by, but do not ignore a good reef bite to chase empty blue water.

The best window is the ocean side rise from the 9:04 AM low into the 3:04 PM high at Whale Harbor Channel. Watch the sky and watch the clock. NOAA keeps thunderstorms in the wording, and the east wind starts building tonight.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:17 AM EDT. The short version is that the morning call still holds, but the climb after dark deserves a little more respect.

For this afternoon, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is still east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are still east to southeast 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet, and the wave detail stayed at east to southeast 2 feet every 4 seconds. That is still fishable water. Not slick calm, but plenty good enough for reef work if the sky behaves.

The change is not really the middle of the day. It is tonight and the next couple of evenings. NOAA now spells out the ridge building north into Central Florida, with easterly to southeasterly breeze trending up tonight. They also added that winds may peak in the evening, periodic cautions may be needed for parts of the Keys waters, and advisories cannot be completely ruled out.

Tonight, Hawk Channel comes up to east winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. The Straits build to east winds 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet, with east to southeast wave detail at 3 feet every 5 seconds. Wednesday still looks workable but stiffer, then Wednesday night into Thursday is the rougher turn with 15 to 20 knots in Hawk Channel and the Straits.

So the midday call is simple. If you are fishing the reef, finish the clean work before the breeze gets teeth. Yellowtail and mangroves are still the right meat-and-potatoes play. I would not burn a bunch of afternoon fuel outside unless the ocean shows birds, weed, bait, or a sharp color change.

evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

NOAA updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:31 PM EDT, and the afternoon ended about how it looked on paper. The early window was the better water. By late day the east side of the forecast started showing itself, with the breeze set to lean more easterly to southeasterly tonight as the Atlantic ridge builds north into Central Florida.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is east at 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. The Straits are east at 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Florida Bay is east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots with smooth to a light chop.

That keeps the reef fishable this evening, but it is not the same soft water we had early. The smart play is still snapper work close to the reef line, especially yellowtail and mangroves where the current stretches the chum right. If the boat sits wrong or the slick gets lazy, move. July heat punishes stubborn fishing.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, is workable but stiffer. NOAA has Hawk Channel east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. The Straits go east near 15 knots with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Bay waters run a light to moderate chop.

The better Wednesday plan is reef first, not a long hero run. Alligator, Crocker, Davis, Conch, and Molasses all stay in play for yellowtail, mangroves, and a mutton bait on the deeper edge. The outside only earns fuel if it shows life, birds, weed, bait, or a hard color line. Wednesday night gets rougher with 15 to 20 knots and the Straits building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, so do the clean work before that evening push.

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Data sources: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT and updated 10:17 AM EDT and 4:31 PM EDT July 7, 2026; NOAA NDBC Long Key station LONF1 observation at 5:40 AM EDT July 7; NOAA NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1 observation at 5:40 AM EDT July 7; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel, 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key, and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of July 5, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.