Captain's log, July 8, 2026, east wind building over the reef

Wednesday, July 8. The ocean is still fishable, but it is not the soft little July window we had yesterday morning.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:27 AM EDT. The Atlantic ridge across Central Florida is strengthening, and the breeze is coming up with it. Light to gentle wind is giving way to moderate, then fresh at times tonight. NOAA is already talking about marine cautions for most Keys waters over the next few days.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots this morning, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters start as a light to moderate chop and become a moderate chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are rougher. NOAA has east wind near 15 knots today, seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with east wave detail at 4 feet every 5 seconds. That short period matters. It is not a clean swell. It is close stacked water, and it gets tiring fast in a smaller boat.

At Long Key, the 5:30 AM EDT NDBC observation had southeast wind at 13.0 knots with gusts to 15.0 knots. At Sombrero Key, the 5:20 AM EDT observation had east wind at 11.1 knots with gusts to 13.0 knots. Vaca Key in Florida Bay reported water temperature at 90.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT. Molasses Reef station MLRF1 still has no recent live observation because that station was disestablished in 2023.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet, becoming a moderate chop
Straits	3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, east 4 feet at 5 seconds
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 10 knots, becoming 10 to 15 knots
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	fair reef day, poor small boat outside run

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the working lane today. Not pretty. Workable.

East to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, building near 15 knots, puts some chop on the reef line. Seas of 2 to 3 feet are enough to make anchoring sloppy if the current fights the wind, but the upper reef is still a better plan than forcing a long outside run into short-period water.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee are all fishable for reef boats that can sit right and handle the bump. The best move is to pick a reef, set up clean, and keep the day efficient. If the chum line stretches and the fish climb, stay with it. If the boat swings sideways and the slick gets ugly, move before the morning gets away.

Tonight, NOAA brings Hawk Channel up to east to southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Seas build to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, and nearshore waters turn choppy. That is the part of the forecast I would respect.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are not the first choice today. NOAA has east wind near 15 knots with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east 4 feet every 5 seconds.

That is a short, square sea. A bigger boat can work through it, but it is not a casual mahi poke around. If the outside shows birds, weed, bait, or a hard edge close to the reef, take a look. If it looks empty from the reef line, do not donate fuel to blue water just because the calendar says July.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of July 5 sits 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps the edge close in theory. The sea state decides whether that look is worth it.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is easier on the hull, but it is hot water. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Bay waters go from a light chop to a light to moderate chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Vaca Key was 90.5 F before sunrise. That is summer water, plain and simple. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still possible, but the clean flats work is early, late, or on moving water with some life in it.

tides for wednesday, july 8

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	3:08 AM EDT	1.25 ft	overnight high
Low	10:02 AM EDT	-0.05 ft	morning low
High	4:05 PM EDT	1.30 ft	afternoon high
Low	10:35 PM EDT	0.26 ft	evening low

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	5:00 AM EDT	0.59 ft	early high
Low	1:12 PM EDT	0.05 ft	midday low
High	6:10 PM EDT	0.36 ft	evening high

For the reef, the 10:02 AM low into the 4:05 PM high is the main water. That should give yellowtail enough current to line up if the wind does not make the anchor angle stupid.

The afternoon tide is useful, but the breeze is also forecast to keep building into tonight. That makes the first half of the rising water the cleanest part of the day. Get set before the chop starts bossing the boat around.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses is fair today. The Gulf Stream edge is listed 6 NM southeast of the light, so there may be life outside, but the Straits forecast makes that a careful decision.

Fish the reef first. Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 70 feet if the current runs the right way. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge with a real bait down and patience. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks in the slick.

Conch reef

Conch is a better fit than a long outside run. The 50 to 80 foot line gives enough depth for yellowtail and a mutton bait without committing the day to the Straits.

The wind angle should let some boats sit fine and make others fight the hook. Do not marry the first set if the boat lays wrong. Resetting is cheaper than feeding a bad chum line.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada half day call. Shorter ride. Enough reef. Less temptation to turn a fair day into a hero mission.

Yellowtail are fair to good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Cero mackerel are fair when bait shows. This is the place to make a clean box without trying to prove anything.

Crocker reef

Crocker is worth a deeper edge look if the current holds. I would start in 55 to 80 feet and keep one honest mutton bait soaking while the yellowtail rods work.

The bite may not be automatic with the chop. Keep the chum steady, keep the baits small for yellowtail, and do not overfeed them. July fish will make you pay for sloppy rhythm.

Alligator reef

Alligator is probably the best all around reef call today. It gives room to adjust depth, enough structure to find life, and the Gulf Stream edge is listed 7 NM southeast of the light.

Yellowtail are fair to good from 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Mangroves are fair near structure. The tower will get attention, but the better water may not be right under the crowd.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but it is not my first pick from Islamorada unless you already have a reason to run west. The forecast gets rougher later, and that ride home matters.

If Tennessee is the plan, stay disciplined. Work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Put a mutton bait on the deeper edge when the current gives you a clean line. If the wind keeps building early, shorten the day instead of grinding into the evening push.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef edge from Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 75 ft
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge at Conch, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, patch reef, and evening current
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks with bait on the reef
Mahi mahi	poor to fair	only worth a short look if life shows close
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around current edges, if the sea allows
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat stacks up
Permit	fair early	moving water near cleaner edges
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef is the sensible lane today. The tide gives a real rising-water window from the 10:02 AM low into the 4:05 PM high at Whale Harbor Channel. That should fish if the current and wind agree.

Muttons are fair, not automatic. Put one good bait where it belongs and leave it alone. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee all have enough deeper edge for a shot.

Mahi are downgraded because of the sea state. The Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator, but close does not mean comfortable. Birds, weed, bait, or color have to earn the run today.

The bay species are heat limited. At 90.5 F before sunrise, the fish can still feed, but the windows get narrow. Early moving water is the best bet.

the call

Fish the reef first. Alligator has the best mix of options. Davis is the clean half day. Crocker and Conch are worth time if you want a better mutton shot. Molasses has the outside temptation, but the Straits forecast says do not chase empty water.

The key window is the ocean side rise from the 10:02 AM low toward the 4:05 PM high at Whale Harbor Channel. Start clean, watch the sky, and keep an eye on the wind. NOAA has tonight going choppy, and Thursday stays stiff.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:17 AM EDT, and it did not give us a softer story. The morning forecast has held up. The change is mostly timing, with the same building east breeze now aimed at this afternoon and tonight.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA still has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas stay 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop to a moderate chop, with only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are still the rougher ride. NOAA keeps east wind near 15 knots this afternoon with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, and east wave detail at 4 feet every 5 seconds. That is the same short-period stuff from the morning report. It is workable in the right boat, but it is not a lazy offshore look.

Tonight is where the forecast gets more bossy. Hawk Channel comes up to east to southeast 15 to 20 knots with 2 to 4 foot seas, occasionally to 5 feet. The Straits build to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, with east to southeast wind 15 to 20 knots.

Florida Bay is also ticking up, just not as ugly. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, with bay waters becoming a light to moderate chop. By tonight, the bay goes near 15 knots and a moderate chop.

So the midday call is simple. The reef is still the right lane, but the clock matters. Make the rising water work now, keep the ride home in mind, and do not treat tonight’s 15 to 20 like background noise.

evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

NOAA Key West put out the 4:22 PM EDT coastal waters forecast, and the late day read is still a building east wind story. No surprise there. The ridge is tightening up, the evening breeze is the peak, and small craft should exercise caution in Hawk Channel for increasing winds.

The afternoon played about how it was advertised. Long Key had east wind at 13.0 knots with gusts to 15.9 knots at 4:40 PM EDT. Sombrero Key had east wind at 13.0 knots with gusts to 17.1 knots at 4:30 PM EDT. That is not blown out, but it is enough to put the chop in your teeth if the boat is sitting wrong on the reef.

Vaca Key in Florida Bay was 93.0 F at 4:54 PM EDT. That is hot bathwater. The bay can still give you a window around moving water, but the fish are not going to tolerate sloppy pressure or long hero drifts in that heat.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is forecast east to southeast near 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas run 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with nearshore waters going from a moderate chop to choppy. The Straits are rougher, with east to southeast wind 15 to 20 knots, seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, and east wave detail at 5 feet every 5 seconds.

Thursday does not back off much. Hawk Channel stays east to southeast near 15 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, and a moderate chop. The Straits hold east wind 15 to 20 knots with seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, and east to southeast wave detail at 5 feet every 6 seconds.

So tomorrow is a reef day if you are going. Alligator, Davis, Crocker, and Conch make more sense than pretending the outside is friendly. Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are the practical meat play. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth soaking when the current gives you a clean line. Mahi are still a maybe, not a plan, unless life shows close and the ride lets you look without being stupid.

Friday is when the rain chances start climbing with that weak low level trough moving west across the area. For Thursday, the main problem is wind and short-period east sea. Pick the right boat, keep the run tight, and do not let the forecast talk you into a long outside loop.

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Data sources: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:27 AM EDT and updated 10:17 AM EDT and 4:22 PM EDT July 8, 2026; NOAA NDBC Long Key station LONF1 observations at 5:30 AM EDT and 4:40 PM EDT July 8; NOAA NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1 observations at 5:20 AM EDT and 4:30 PM EDT July 8; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel, 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key, and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of July 5, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.