Captain's log, July 9, 2026, fresh east breeze, reef bite has to earn it

Thursday, July 9. This is not the slick little summer window we had last week. It is still fishable, but the east breeze has some shoulder in it, and that changes the whole attitude of the day.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:38 AM EDT. The setup is moderate to fresh east to southeast breeze under an Atlantic ridge across Central Florida. Marine caution headlines are up for the local waters outside Florida Bay. NOAA expects the wind to peak in the evenings, lull a little during the day, then ease gradually through the weekend.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east wind near 15 knots today. Seas are 2 to 3 feet and nearshore waters are a moderate chop. Tonight bumps to east to southeast 15 to 20 knots, seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with choppy nearshore water and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are rougher. NOAA has east wind near 15 knots today with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east 4 feet at 6 seconds. Tonight stays 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with east to southeast wind 15 to 20 knots and an east 4 foot wave at 5 seconds.

The nearby stations were already showing the breeze before sunrise. At 5:40 AM EDT, Sombrero Key was east at 13 knots with gusts to 16 knots. Long Key was southeast at 12 knots with gusts to 16 knots. Sand Key was southeast at 18 knots with gusts to 20 knots. That lines up with NOAA’s caution wording. It is not scary water, but it is not lazy water.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east near 15 knots in Hawk Channel and the Straits
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet, nearshore waters a moderate chop
Straits	3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet
Florida Bay	east near 15 knots, bay waters a moderate chop
Rain	slight chance today, better chance tonight and Friday
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.4 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Reef water	Upper Matecumbe Key ocean station, 86.3 F at 4:00 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	fair reef day, poor blind offshore run, bay heat still a problem

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the working lane today. East wind near 15 knots and 2 to 3 foot seas means the reef is still in play, but the boat needs to be set up right. Sloppy anchoring, bad angle, or dead current will waste a lot of time in a hurry.

From Molasses through Tennessee, I would fish the reef with a short leash. If the chum line lays out clean and the current runs with the wind, stay with it. If the boat sits sideways or the slick piles under the transom, move before the clock gets expensive.

Tonight gets bumpier. NOAA has Hawk Channel east to southeast at 15 to 20 knots with 2 to 4 foot seas, occasionally to 5 feet. That makes the morning and midday the cleaner fishing window.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are not the first call today. NOAA has east wind near 15 knots, seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with an east 4 foot wave at 6 seconds. That is workable for the right boat and the right reason. It is a bad setup for a blind mahi run just because somebody saw blue water on a phone.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of July 5 was 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough to keep in mind. Close does not mean automatic.

If there are birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a hard color edge, the outside can earn a look. If the ocean looks empty, take the hint and fish the reef.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is choppy today. NOAA has east wind near 15 knots and bay waters a moderate chop. Tonight goes east to southeast 15 to 20 knots and choppy, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The heat is still the bigger problem for shallow water. Vaca Key, Florida Bay read 89.4 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before breakfast. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon need early or late current, not a high sun grind over warm water.

tides for thursday, july 9

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	4:05 AM EDT	1.25 feet	early high
Low	11:03 AM EDT	-0.12 feet	late morning low
High	5:10 PM EDT	1.34 feet	afternoon high
Low	11:39 PM EDT	0.25 feet	late low

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	12:26 AM EDT	0.17 feet	overnight low
High	5:51 AM EDT	0.63 feet	morning high
Low	2:22 PM EDT	-0.02 feet	afternoon low
High	7:43 PM EDT	0.32 feet	evening high

For the reef, the tide falling toward the 11:03 AM low is the first serious window. The afternoon rise toward 5:10 PM can be useful too, but the breeze will be more of a factor later in the day. If the current is already moving clean in the morning, do not wait around trying to make the perfect plan prettier.

On the bay side, the tide is small and the water is hot. The 2:22 PM low into the evening high gives some movement, but I would not build the day around skinny water in that heat unless the timing is very deliberate.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses has the closest useful outside hint today, with the Gulf Stream edge listed 6 NM southeast of the light. That matters, but the Straits forecast keeps the leash short.

Start on the reef in 45 to 75 feet. Yellowtail are fair to good if the current runs and the slick stays clean. Cero mackerel are fair in the chum when bait is around. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth the soak, but it needs to fish naturally. Dragging a bait through short chop and bad angle is just donating tackle.

If the outside edge shows life, look. If it does not, stay honest on the reef.

Conch reef

Conch should fish like a working reef stop today, not a layup. The water will have enough texture that boat placement matters more than usual.

Fish 50 to 80 feet and watch the current before getting married to the spot. Yellowtail are fair to good. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Mangroves are fair around structure if the water has a little stain and movement.

The reef can produce in this breeze, but it will punish lazy setup.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada call if you want dinner without turning the day into a long ride. Hawk Channel is moderate chop, and Davis gives you room to adjust fast.

Yellowtail are fair in 40 to 60 feet when the chum gets carried. Mangroves are fair on patchier bottom. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows in the slick.

This is a good family trip reef today because it keeps the run short and lets the captain work the conditions instead of fighting them.

Crocker reef

Crocker gets a fair mark. It can be good when the deeper edge has clean current, but it is not a place to sit through dead water just because you like the number on the machine.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are fair to good if the current lines up. Mutton snapper are fair with a real bait set deep and left alone. Cero mackerel are fair when the bait is nervous.

If the boat will not settle right, reset. Today is not a day to pretend angle does not matter.

Alligator reef

Alligator is the best all-around reef call today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of the light, and the reef gives enough room to find a better lane if the obvious water is too sloppy or too crowded.

Yellowtail are fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair deeper. Cero mackerel are fair in the slick. Permit are fair around cleaner moving water, but the breeze makes sight work harder.

The tower area will draw eyes. Fine. The fish do not all live under the landmark. Find the water that is moving right and fish it clean.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is a solid lower-end reset if the upper reef feels too busy or too bumpy. The run is longer, so make sure the weather and crew match the idea before pointing that way.

Look in 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper side has a fair mutton look when the current behaves. Tennessee can be productive in a breeze, but it still needs the slick to work away from the boat.

With thunderstorms becoming more likely tonight and Friday, keep an eye on the western sky late in the day.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best water
Yellowtail snapper	fair to good	reef edge from Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 75 feet
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edges when current moves clean
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, patchier bottom, stained moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks with bait on the reef
Mahi mahi	poor to fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper moving water
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat stacks up
Permit	fair	cleaner moving water around reef and deeper edges
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes early or late with current

Yellowtail snapper still get the best grade, but it is not an easy-money forecast. The wind is enough to make a bad setup obvious. Keep the chum steady, keep the leader sensible, and move when the current tells you to.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee all have a shot if the tide starts pushing clean. Use a real bait. Let it sit.

Mahi are not the main plan. The Gulf Stream is close enough off Molasses and Alligator to tempt you, but the Straits are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Make the ocean show birds, weed, bait, or a real color edge before you spend fuel.

The flats are heat-limited again. Vaca Key water at 89.4 F before 6 AM says what needs saying. Fish early or late, and do not ask skinny hot water to act like spring.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first, but fish it like the breeze matters. Alligator has the best overall mix. Davis is the practical dinner run. Molasses has the outside temptation, but the Straits need to prove they are worth it. Crocker and Conch get better if the current lines up clean. Tennessee is the reset when the obvious spots do not behave.

Today is not a dock day. It is also not a hero run day. Put the boat where the chum works, watch the sky, and do not let close blue water talk you into a rough empty ride.

midday addendum, 10:19 AM EDT NOAA update

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:19 AM EDT. The biggest change is timing, not a full rewrite. The breeze is lulling a little through late morning and early afternoon, then it is forecast to freshen again this evening.

Hawk Channel is a touch softer than the early package for the middle of the day. The morning report had east wind near 15 knots. The midday update has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots this afternoon. Seas are still 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop to a moderate chop.

The Straits did not really get easier. NOAA still has 3 to 4 foot seas, occasionally to 5 feet, with east wave detail at 4 feet every 6 seconds. The wind wording is east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. That is enough to keep the offshore call the same. Look only if the water shows you a reason.

Florida Bay also eased a hair for the afternoon, with east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots and a light to moderate chop. Tonight is the part to respect. NOAA has the bay building to 15 to 20 knots and choppy, while Hawk Channel goes 15 to 20 knots with 2 to 4 foot seas, occasionally to 5 feet. The Straits stay 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

So the midday call stays reef first. If you are already fishing the rising water toward the 5:10 PM Whale Harbor high, keep the boat set clean and do not waste time on a bad angle. The little midday lull is useful, but it is not a pass to run around careless. The evening breeze is still coming.

evening addendum, 4:43 PM EDT NOAA update

The evening forecast came in right on the script NOAA had been hinting at all day. The breeze did not disappear. It waited until later, then started leaning on the water again.

NOAA Key West issued the 4:43 PM EDT coastal waters forecast with small craft exercise caution wording for increasing winds across Florida Bay, Hawk Channel, the Straits, and the Gulfside waters. The synopsis still has moderate to fresh breezes holding steady through at least Friday night while the Atlantic ridge sits across Central Florida. Winds are expected to peak in the evenings and lull a little during the day.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is the part to respect. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 15 knots early, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with nearshore waters going from a moderate chop to choppy. That is not a sunset joyride forecast. It is get-your-work-done-and-get-home water.

The Straits get a little nastier after dark. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 15 knots early, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas build from 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, up to 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail is east 5 feet at 5 seconds. If the outside did not give you birds, weed, bait, or a hard edge this afternoon, there was no good reason to keep beating on it.

Tomorrow is still fishable, but it is not slick. NOAA has Hawk Channel east to southeast near 15 knots Friday with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, and a moderate chop nearshore. The Straits are east near 15 knots, seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with east to southeast wave detail at 4 feet every 6 seconds. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast.

Friday’s better plan is the same honest plan, reef first. Davis and Alligator make sense for a practical Islamorada trip. Molasses can get a look if the current runs clean and the crew is right for the ride. The blind offshore mahi hunt still gets a poor grade unless the ocean shows real life. For the bay, expect a moderate chop and hot water. Early current matters more than optimism.

By Friday night, the forecast starts to loosen a notch after midnight. Hawk Channel goes from east to southeast 15 to 20 knots to southeast 10 to 15 knots, with seas settling to 2 to 3 feet east, though west of Cosgrove Shoal Light can still run 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The Straits go from 15 to 20 knots down to 10 to 15 knots after midnight, with seas subsiding from 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, to 2 to 3 feet.

So the evening recap is simple. The reef was the right call, the offshore run needed proof, and tomorrow needs the same discipline. Fish the window NOAA gives you. Do not let the little daytime lull talk you into ignoring the evening push.

Data sources: NOAA NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:38 AM EDT and updated 10:19 AM EDT and 4:43 PM EDT July 9, 2026; NOAA NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1, Long Key station LONF1, and Sand Key station SANF1 observations at 5:40 AM EDT; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel, 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key, and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay; NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key ocean station MUKF1; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of July 5, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.