Captain's log, July 10, 2026, east breeze, reef bump, hot bay

Friday, July 10. The wind did not quit overnight, it just settled into that summer east and southeast push that makes the reef fishable and the outside a little mean.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:17 AM EDT. The ridge is still sitting across central Florida, and that keeps moderate breezes over the Keys waters today. NOAA expects the wind to peak more in the evenings and ease back a little through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are still possible through early Saturday, then drier air should start working in.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 15 knots today. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with nearshore waters a moderate chop. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms, and any stronger cell can make the wind and seas worse fast.

The Straits are the rougher water. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 15 knots, seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, with east wave detail 4 feet at 6 seconds. That is short-period water. It is not a long easy roll. It stacks up and makes every extra mile feel expensive.

At Long Key, the 5:30 AM EDT NDBC observation had east southeast wind at about 17.1 knots with gusts near 19.0 knots. Sombrero Key at 5:40 AM EDT had east wind at about 15.9 knots with gusts near 19.0 knots. Vaca Key in Florida Bay showed water temperature at 88.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT on NOAA Tides and Currents, and the nearby NDBC feed was around 89.1 F at 5:18 AM EDT.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 15 knots
Hawk Channel	2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet
Straits	3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet
Wave detail	east 4 feet at 6 seconds in the Straits
Florida Bay	moderate chop, east to southeast near 15 knots
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	fair reef day, poor casual offshore day

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is workable, but not soft. East to southeast wind near 15 knots and 2 to 4 foot seas will put some punch on the reef line, especially where the current runs against it.

This is not a day for sloppy anchoring. Pick the reef, set the boat right, and make the chum line do something useful. If the boat lays sideways or the slick runs under the hull, move. Waiting for a bad setup to become a good one is how you feed fish you never catch.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee are all fishable for the right boat today. The best reef choice depends less on the name and more on clean water, current direction, and how much ride you want to sign up for.

Tonight, NOAA keeps the breeze near 15 knots, then eases it to 10 to 15 knots. Hawk Channel seas drop to 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters go from a moderate chop to light to moderate chop. That is better, but the daylight reef window still deserves respect.

straits of florida

The Straits are not the casual play. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 15 knots, seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, with east wave detail 4 feet at 6 seconds.

A bigger boat can fish that. A small boat can get humbled by it. The important part is not the headline sea height by itself, it is the 6 second period. Short, stacked, and wet.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream edge as of July 5 sits 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps the edge close enough to pay attention to, but close does not mean comfortable. If birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a clean color edge show near the reef, take a look. If the ocean looks empty, do not burn the morning proving it.

florida bay

Florida Bay is easier than the Straits, but it is still breezy and hot. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 15 knots today with bay waters a moderate chop. Showers and thunderstorms are possible.

The water is already near 89 F before sunrise. That is summer bay water. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still feed, but the clean windows are early, late, and tied to moving water. Long midday pressure on hot skinny water is mostly punishment with a rod in your hand.

tides for friday, july 10

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side read for the Islamorada reef line.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	5:09 AM EDT	1.27 ft	early high
Low	12:05 PM EDT	-0.19 ft	midday low
High	6:16 PM EDT	1.40 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	1:16 AM EDT	0.19 ft	overnight low
High	6:48 AM EDT	0.68 ft	morning high
Low	3:29 PM EDT	-0.09 ft	afternoon low
High	9:03 PM EDT	0.30 ft	late high

For the reef, the first half of the day is falling water into the 12:05 PM low at Whale Harbor. The afternoon rise toward the 6:16 PM high should give another push, but the wind will still matter. If the current lines up against the east breeze, expect a lumpier anchor set.

For the bay, the morning high at 6:48 AM is the early water. After that, the bay falls toward the 3:29 PM low. With hot water and breeze, I would rather fish the bay early than grind it in the middle of the afternoon.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses is fair today. The Gulf Stream edge is listed 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, so there is a reason to look beyond the reef if the signs are real. But the Straits forecast is not friendly enough for a blind blue water lap.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 75 feet if the current pulls clean. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and active chum. If the outside looks alive and close, check it. If not, stay where the groceries live.

conch reef

Conch is a solid working reef in this wind because you can adjust depth without turning the whole day into a long ride. Start where the water looks clean and the current gives the chum some shape.

Yellowtail are fair to good in 50 to 80 feet. Muttons are fair deeper when the tide moves. Mangroves are fair around structure and lower light. The wind may make the boat hunt on the hook, so do not get stubborn with a bad lie.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half day call. Shorter run, plenty of structure, and less temptation to chase the Straits when the Straits are already telling you what kind of mood they are in.

Yellowtail should be fair in 40 to 60 feet, better if the water cleans up and the current holds. Mangroves are fair near structure. Cero mackerel can slide through the slick if bait is stacked. This is the place to fish clean and put a box together without making the day dramatic.

crocker reef

Crocker is worth a deeper edge look. The 55 to 85 foot line gives enough room for yellowtail and a patient mutton bait. The bite may take some sorting because the wind is going to push the boat around.

Keep the chum steady. Do not overfeed them. July yellowtail can get picky in clear water, and they get even pickier when the boat is swinging and the bait presentation looks wrong.

alligator reef

Alligator is probably the best all around call today. It gives you reef, edge, and enough room to slide if the first set does not feel right. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, which keeps the outside interesting but not automatic.

Yellowtail are fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Mangrove snapper are fair near structure. If the water is dirty or the current fights the wind too hard, move before the morning disappears.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but it is not the first pick from Islamorada in this forecast unless you already have a reason to work west. The ride home in an east breeze is part of the decision.

If Tennessee is the plan, stay reef disciplined. Yellowtail and mangroves in 40 to 70 feet are the practical play. Put a mutton bait down when the current gives you a clean shot. If the wind keeps the boat from sitting right, shorten the plan and fish closer.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef edge from Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 80 ft
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, patch reef, and lower light
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks with bait present
Mahi mahi	poor to fair	only if life shows close to the reef
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around current edges, if the sea allows
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat builds
Permit	fair early	clean moving water with less pressure
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef is the sensible lane today. There is enough wind to make it bumpy, but not enough to shut down a reef boat that can anchor right.

Muttons are fair. Not automatic. Put one good bait down on the deeper edge and leave it there. Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Tennessee all have enough bottom for a shot if the current gives you a line.

Mahi are a maybe, not the plan. The Gulf Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator, but the Straits are 3 to 5 feet with a short period. Signs need to earn the run today.

The bay fish are heat limited. Vaca Key water near 89 F before sunrise means the best shots are early and tied to water movement. By midday, shade and patience matter more than hero casting.

the call

Fish the reef first. Alligator has the best mix. Davis is the clean half day. Conch and Crocker are worth time if you want a better mutton shot. Molasses has the outside tease, but the Straits forecast says do not chase empty water.

The tide goes from the 5:09 AM high down to the 12:05 PM low at Whale Harbor, then rises toward the 6:16 PM high. I would make the morning fall work if the current runs clean, then reassess before committing to a late push in the chop.

Saturday improves a little on paper. NOAA has Hawk Channel east to southeast 10 to 15 knots with seas around 2 to 3 feet and only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The Straits settle to 2 to 3 feet. That is still not flat, but it is a better look than today’s short stacked water.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:17 AM EDT. The ridge is still holding across central Florida, and NOAA now calls for moderate breezes with occasional strong gusts to hold steady through tonight. That is a little sharper than the early read.

The main change is the wind window. This morning’s report had Hawk Channel near 15 knots. The midday forecast has Hawk Channel east to southeast 15 to 20 knots this afternoon, briefly decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas stayed 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, but the wording moved to choppy nearshore waters and small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease.

The Straits did not get better. NOAA now has east to southeast wind 15 to 20 knots this afternoon with seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail is still east 4 feet at 6 seconds. That keeps it short, stacked, and wet. Small craft should exercise caution out there.

Florida Bay is about the same on paper, east to southeast near 15 knots with bay waters a moderate chop. Showers and thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon and tonight, and NOAA says winds and seas can run higher around those cells.

So the call has tightened up, not changed completely. Reef first still makes sense, but pick the set carefully and do not treat the outside like free money. If you are in a smaller boat, Saturday’s 10 to 15 knot forecast with 2 to 3 foot seas is the cleaner swing.

evening addendum, 4:34 PM EDT NOAA update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:34 PM EDT, and the evening read finally gives us a little bit of a step-down after a bumpy afternoon. Not flat. Just better.

The afternoon did what the midday forecast said it would do. The reef side had enough east and southeast breeze to make anchoring matter, and the outside water was never a casual run. Long Key showed east wind at about 13.0 knots with gusts near 17.1 knots at 4:30 PM EDT. Sombrero Key was about the same, east wind near 13.0 knots with gusts near 15.9 knots at 4:30 PM EDT.

Tonight, NOAA keeps small craft in caution mode until winds decrease. Hawk Channel has east to southeast wind 15 to 20 knots, dropping to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas run 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, then the nearshore water backs off from choppy to a light to moderate chop. That is the turn we were looking for, but I would still let the wind actually fall before trusting it.

The Straits are still the rougher side tonight. NOAA has east wind 15 to 20 knots, becoming east to southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, with east wave detail 5 feet at 6 seconds. Short-period water like that does not get polite just because the sun is low.

Florida Bay stays breezy early, then eases after midnight. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots, with bay waters going from a moderate chop to a light to moderate chop. Vaca Key, Florida Bay hit 91.2 F at 4:54 PM EDT, so the bay is hot enough that early and late water still matter more than wishful thinking.

For Saturday, the forecast is better but still a working forecast. Hawk Channel goes east to southeast 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The Straits settle to 2 to 3 feet with east to southeast wave detail 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is a cleaner look for the reef, and a possible outside peek if the water shows birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a clean edge close enough to justify it.

Tomorrow’s first call is still reef first. Alligator, Davis, Conch, and Crocker make sense for yellowtail, mangroves, and a patient mutton bait. Molasses gets a look if the upper end has clean water, but I would not make mahi the plan unless the ocean earns it before you spend the fuel.

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Source notes: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:17 AM EDT July 10, 2026, with midday update issued 10:17 AM EDT and evening update issued 4:34 PM EDT July 10, 2026. Tides from NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key. Water temperature from NOAA station 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay at 5:54 AM EDT and 4:54 PM EDT, cross checked against NOAA/NDBC VCAF1. Wind observations from NOAA/NDBC Long Key station LONF1 and Sombrero Key station SMKF1. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of July 5, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.