Captain's log, July 11, 2026, lighter breeze, cleaner reef window

Saturday, July 11. The ocean finally took a little weight off its shoulders.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:24 AM EDT. The ridge is still holding over the Atlantic side, but the breeze is down compared with the last couple days. NOAA has gentle to moderate east to southeast wind through the weekend, with the wind usually peaking in the evening and easing some during the afternoon.

There can still be a brief shower or thunderstorm today, mostly during the first half of the day. After that, drier Saharan air should build in and keep rain chances low into early next week.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots today. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. That is a fishable reef forecast.

The Straits are also better. NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Not flat, but a lot friendlier than the short stacked water we have been dealing with.

At Long Key, the 5:40 AM EDT NDBC observation had east wind at about 14 knots with gusts near 18 knots. Sombrero Key at 5:40 AM EDT was northeast to east at about 8 knots with gusts near 11 knots. Vaca Key, Florida Bay read 87.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT on NOAA Tides and Currents, with the nearby NDBC feed around 88.2 F at 5:18 AM EDT.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet, light to moderate chop
Straits	2 to 3 feet
Wave detail	east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds in the Straits
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 10 knots, light chop
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 87.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look if the water shows life

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the best lane today. East to southeast 10 to 15 knots and 2 to 3 foot seas give us enough water movement to make the reef bite work without beating up the crew just to get there.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee are all in play. The better stop will be the one with clean water and a chum line that lays out right. It is still July, so the fish are not going to reward a lazy setup just because the forecast got nicer.

The tide falls through the middle of the day, then rises into the evening. If the morning current runs clean, fish it. If the boat swings wrong or the slick does nothing, move before the day gets old.

straits of florida

The Straits are not shut down today. NOAA has 2 to 3 foot seas with an east to southeast 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is still short period water, but it is a much better look than 4 to 5 feet at the same pace.

The Gulf Stream edge is listed 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps the outside close enough to check if there are birds, bait, flyers, weed, or a clean color edge. But I would still make it earn the fuel.

Mahi are possible. They are not the plan until the ocean gives you a reason. A reef box with yellowtails and a mutton bait down is the steadier bet.

florida bay

Florida Bay is lighter today. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots, bay waters a light chop, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The water is still hot. Vaca Key was 87.8 F before 6 AM EDT. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can feed, but the best shots are early, late, and tied to moving water. Midday skinny water in July asks a lot from the fish and from whoever is standing on the bow.

tides for saturday, july 11

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side read for the Islamorada reef line.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	12:41 AM EDT	0.21 ft	overnight low
High	6:16 AM EDT	1.32 ft	morning high
Low	1:06 PM EDT	-0.28 ft	early afternoon low
High	7:19 PM EDT	1.47 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	2:13 AM EDT	0.19 ft	overnight low
High	7:49 AM EDT	0.73 ft	morning high
Low	4:31 PM EDT	-0.14 ft	late afternoon low
High	10:07 PM EDT	0.31 ft	late high

For the reef, the morning starts after the 6:16 AM high at Whale Harbor and falls toward the 1:06 PM low. That is the first real window. The evening rise toward 7:19 PM should move water again, and the NOAA forecast keeps the breeze in the same 10 to 15 knot range tonight.

For the bay, the 7:49 AM high is the better early water. After that, it falls for a long stretch toward the 4:31 PM low. With water near 88 F early, I would keep the bay plan sharp and timed instead of grinding through the heat.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good mark today. The reef should be fishable in 45 to 75 feet, and the Gulf Stream edge being 6 NM southeast of the light gives the upper end a little outside interest.

Yellowtail should be fair to good if the current pulls clean. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and a steady slick. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth soaking, especially if the falling tide gives you a natural line.

If the outside shows birds or weed close enough, look. If it looks empty, stay on the reef and put groceries in the box.

conch reef

Conch is a solid working stop in this forecast. The wind is light enough to fish it without getting punished, but there is still enough chop that anchoring right matters.

Work 50 to 80 feet and do not marry the first number on the machine. Yellowtail are fair to good. Mutton snapper are fair deeper. Mangroves are fair around structure and lower light.

This is the kind of day where Conch can quietly save a trip if the current behaves.

davis reef

Davis is the clean half day call. Shorter run, good structure, and no need to gamble offshore just because the forecast is better than yesterday.

Yellowtail are fair to good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair near structure. Cero mackerel can show in the slick when bait gets nervous. It is a good family trip choice today because you can fish hard without making the ride the whole story.

crocker reef

Crocker is fair to good today, especially on the deeper edge. The 55 to 85 foot line gives you room for yellowtail and a better mutton soak.

Keep the chum steady and the leader sensible. If the current is too weak, do not dump bait trying to invent a bite. July reef fish can be picky in clear water, and a messy slick only teaches them bad habits.

alligator reef

Alligator is probably the best overall call. It has enough reef, edge, and room to adjust if the first set does not feel right. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so an outside peek is reasonable if the signs are there.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Permit are possible around cleaner moving water, but they are not the main meat and potatoes plan.

If the water has a little life, this is where I would spend the morning.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today and better than it has looked during the stronger east breeze. It still takes a longer ride from Islamorada, so make sure the crew and the plan match the run.

Yellowtail and mangroves are fair to good in 40 to 70 feet. Mutton snapper are fair deeper with moving water. If the reef closer to home is crowded or the current is wrong, Tennessee gives you a good reset without making the Straits the whole gamble.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef edge from Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 80 ft
Mangrove snapper	fair to good	structure, patch reef, and lower light
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks with bait present
Mahi mahi	fair	only if weed, birds, bait, or color show close
Blackfin tuna	fair	early around moving water and current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat builds
Permit	fair	clean moving water with less pressure
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade today. The reef forecast is finally friendly enough to let a good setup work, and the tide gives us moving water through the morning.

Mangroves are fair to good around structure, especially if the water has a touch of stain or the light is low. Muttons are fair, not automatic. Put one good bait down and leave it alone long enough to matter.

Mahi are a fair possibility, but not a blind mission. The Gulf Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator, and the Straits are much more reasonable today. Still, July mahi fishing is a sign game. No birds, no weed, no bait, no reason to burn circles.

The bay fish are still dealing with heat. Vaca Key near 88 F before sunrise means the shallow water bite needs early water, clean current, and a little mercy.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Alligator has the best mix today. Davis is the easy half day. Conch and Crocker are good working reefs if the current lines up. Molasses gets the outside tease with the Gulf Stream close, but the reef bite is the steadier play.

The morning fall from the 6:16 AM Whale Harbor high toward the 1:06 PM low is the first window. If it starts right, stay with it. If it does not, move. Today is too fishable to waste on a bad anchor set.

Sunday looks similar and maybe a touch softer nearshore. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots in Hawk Channel with 2 to 3 foot seas, and east wind 10 to 15 knots in the Straits with 2 to 3 foot seas. That keeps the reef program alive for the weekend.

midday addendum, 10:31 AM NOAA update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:31 AM EDT, and the main call did not move much. The reef is still the better bet.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is holding at east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Seas are still 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. That is basically the same as the morning read.

The Straits are also steady for the afternoon at east to southeast 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is still east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Tonight is the only place NOAA added a little teeth, with east wind 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.

Florida Bay is still light, east to southeast near 10 knots with a light chop this afternoon. The shower chance is now mostly a leftover note for the afternoon. The bigger change in the wording is drier air moving in behind the first half of the day, which should knock rain chances down into early week.

So I would not change the plan much. Reef first, stay honest about the short period water outside, and do not turn a decent snapper day into a fuel bill unless the ocean shows birds, weed, or bait close enough to make it worth the look.

evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

The afternoon held close to the NOAA update. No big rewrite to the plan, just a little more respect for the outside water tonight.

Hawk Channel stayed the better lane on paper, with NOAA keeping east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop through tonight. That is still workable reef water for a crew that wants snapper more than a sightseeing ride.

The Straits are where I would stay picky. NOAA has tonight at east wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That short period matters. It can look okay from the dock and still feel busy once you get outside the reef.

Florida Bay keeps the simple read tonight, east wind near 10 knots and a light chop. Good enough for protected water, but the heat is still part of the deal. Fish moving water and do not grind dead water just because the breeze is polite.

sunday preview

Sunday looks like another fishable reef day, not a free pass to run blind offshore.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet and a light to moderate chop. That keeps Alligator, Davis, Conch, Crocker, and Molasses in the conversation. I would start with the reef again and let the current decide how long to sit.

For the Straits, Sunday is east wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is better than tonight, but it is still July short-period water. Look outside if there are birds, weed, bait, or a clean edge. If it is empty, the reef is the smarter paycheck.

Bay side, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots and a light chop on Sunday. The better shots should be early and late, especially with water still running hot. Midday flats fishing needs a reason, not optimism.

My call for tomorrow is reef first, outside second, bay early. Yellowtail should stay the best table bet. Mangroves and muttons are worth time around structure and the deeper edge. Mahi are possible if the ocean shows signs close enough to justify the run.

---

Source notes: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:24 AM EDT and updated 10:31 AM EDT July 11, 2026. Evening addendum checked against the same 10:31 AM EDT NOAA update at 5:00 PM EDT. Tides from NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key. Water temperature from NOAA station 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay at 5:54 AM EDT, cross checked against NOAA/NDBC VCAF1 at 5:18 AM EDT. Wind observations from NOAA/NDBC Long Key station LONF1 and Sombrero Key station SMKF1 at 5:40 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of July 5, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.