Captain's log, July 12, 2026, east wind, reef chop, dry sky

Sunday, July 12. This is not a glassy summer morning, but it is fishable if you pick the right job. NOAA Key West has east wind 10 to 15 knots across Hawk Channel and the Straits today, with 2 to 3 foot seas. That puts some chop on the reef line and keeps the offshore run honest.

The good news is the sky. NOAA says a large area of Saharan dust is sitting over the Keys, and that keeps the forecast rain-free through at least the middle of the week. Dust is not pretty for sunset photos. It is pretty useful when you are trying to fish a full day without dodging thunderheads.

For Islamorada, I would call it a working reef day. Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee are all in play, but the east wind matters. The reef can fish well in this setup. It just will not be lazy.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east 10 to 15 knots
Hawk Channel	seas 2 to 3 feet, light to moderate chop
Straits	seas 2 to 3 feet, east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 10 knots, light chop
Rain	rain-free forecast tied to Saharan dust
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 86.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 6 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef bite if current runs, fair offshore, fair bay early

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

NOAA has Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the west end of Seven Mile Bridge at east winds 10 to 15 knots today. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop.

That is enough to keep people awake on the ride, especially in smaller boats. It is not enough to cancel the reef if the crew is ready for it. The reef line will be choppy, but the wind direction is clean and steady, which is better than a sloppy variable mess.

This is a day to set the boat right the first time. If the anchor angle is wrong or the chum is sliding under the boat, fix it. A little chop is fine. Bad positioning wastes the tide.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are fair, not automatic. NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds.

That short period keeps the outside from feeling as small as the number sounds. The Gulf Stream edge is close by local standards, 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 5. Close still has to show life.

If you see birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a hard color edge, take the look. If the water is empty and the reef current is running, do the grown-up thing and go catch dinner.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is the softer side today. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 10 knots and bay waters a light chop. Vaca Key in Florida Bay reported 86.7 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That temperature is warm, but not the brutal 90 degree bath we had earlier this month. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still an early and late game. Midday can work only if the water is moving and the fish are not already cooked out of the mood.

tides for sunday, july 12

Whale Harbor Channel gives the better ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	1:41 AM EDT	0.14 ft	overnight low
High	7:21 AM EDT	1.39 ft	morning high
Low	2:05 PM EDT	-0.35 ft	afternoon low
High	8:18 PM EDT	1.55 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	3:13 AM EDT	0.18 ft	overnight low
High	8:51 AM EDT	0.77 ft	morning high
Low	5:28 PM EDT	-0.18 ft	late afternoon low
High	10:59 PM EDT	0.32 ft	late high

The ocean-side fall from the 7:21 AM high toward the 2:05 PM low is the main reef window. It is a big enough drop to get the chum working, and with east wind on the water you want current that gives the boat a clean line.

The evening rise toward 8:18 PM can fish too, especially for snapper, but watch the comfort level. NOAA keeps the east wind at 10 to 15 knots tonight and Hawk Channel seas at 1 to 2 feet.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses gets the outside temptation today because the Gulf Stream edge is listed 6 NM southeast of the light. That is close enough to inspect if the water shows signs.

The reef itself is the better first move. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 70 feet if the current runs clean on the falling tide. Cero mackerel are fair when bait gets nervous in the slick. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth the soak, but do not waste the whole morning feeding dead water.

Conch reef

Conch should fish steady in this setup. East wind gives it some chop, but the depth range is right and the reef has room to work around boat traffic.

Start in 50 to 80 feet and let the current decide whether you stay. Yellowtail are the main play. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge, especially if you can keep a clean bait away from the little stuff.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada call. Shorter ride, enough reef to work, and a good option when the crew does not need a long bumpy run to prove anything.

Yellowtail should be good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure and broken bottom. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks up behind the boat.

For a half-day, Davis makes sense. It is not fancy. Fish do not care.

Crocker reef

Crocker gets a good grade if the current has direction. The 55 to 80 foot line is where I would spend time, especially through the late morning fall.

Yellowtail are good. Muttons are fair with a real bait and some patience. Fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or a small live grunt beats dropping tired bait and hoping the ocean feels charitable.

If the wind and current fight each other, move until the stern sits right. Crocker rewards clean setup more than stubbornness.

Alligator reef

Alligator is probably the best all-around call today. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of the light, and the reef gives you a lot of workable bottom without committing to the outside.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and moving water.

The tower will pull traffic. Let it. There is plenty of reef if you fish the water instead of the landmark.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but from Islamorada it needs a reason. The forecast is not bad. It is just choppy enough that time matters.

If you are already headed west, work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper edge has a fair mutton shot. If the goal is maximum fishing time, Davis, Crocker, and Alligator are cleaner choices today.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 75 ft
Mutton snapper	fair	Conch, Crocker, Alligator, Tennessee deep edge
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, patch reef with moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks with bait on the reef
Mahi mahi	fair	short outside look only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat builds
Permit	fair early	moving water near cleaner edges
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best mark. The reef has enough sea on it to keep the water alive, and the falling tide gives the morning a real current window.

Muttons are a fair shot, not a guarantee. Put a good bait on the deeper edge and leave it alone long enough to matter. Conch, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all deserve a look if the current is clean.

Mahi are fair because the Stream is close off Molasses and Alligator. Fair means go look when the ocean gives you a reason. It does not mean point the bow east and burn fuel because the map said blue water is nearby.

The bay side is fair early. Vaca Key water at 86.7 F is warm, but still workable before the day stacks up. Once the sun gets high, the better fishing is usually where there is moving water and shade from depth.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Alligator has the best mix. Davis is the easiest half-day choice. Crocker is the better deeper-edge snapper play if the current lines up.

Molasses gets the outside option because the Gulf Stream edge is close, but the reef should earn the first hour. If the chum works and the tails get right, stay with the groceries. If the slick is dead and the outside has birds or weed, go look.

Today is not about being a hero. East wind at 10 to 15 knots and 2 to 3 foot seas rewards crews that make clean decisions. Set up right, fish the falling water, and do not let a close Stream edge talk you out of a good reef bite.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:18 AM EDT, and the midday read is a touch softer inshore than the first morning call.

Florida Bay backed down to east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, increasing to near 10 knots late. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop. That is a better bay ride than the earlier near 10 knot, light chop call.

Hawk Channel also eased a little for the front half of the afternoon. NOAA now has east to southeast winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Seas are still 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters a light chop becoming a light to moderate chop. So the reef is still bouncy, but not worse than advertised.

The Straits did not really change. NOAA still has east winds 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet, and the wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That keeps the offshore run fair, not pretty.

The dry sky holds. The same Saharan dust setup is still keeping the rain-free forecast in place through at least the middle of the week. For the rest of today, I would still fish the reef first, especially as the water turns after the 2:05 PM ocean-side low.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:32 PM EDT, and the day finished about like it looked on paper. Not flat. Not ugly. Just that steady July east breeze that makes you earn the reef.

The updated synopsis keeps gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes in place through early next week. NOAA still expects the wind to peak in the evening and overnight, then ease a little during the morning and afternoon. The Saharan dust is still the big weather story, with a rain-free forecast through at least the middle of next week.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is forecast east wind near 10 knots early, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas build from 1 to 2 feet to 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters going from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. That matches what we planned around all day. The reef was the right kind of work, but it was never a lazy Sunday drift.

The Straits are a little more honest tonight. NOAA has east to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots, with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 4 seconds. That short period is the part that matters. A 3 foot sea at 4 seconds can feel like it has an attitude.

Florida Bay stays the soft side. Tonight is east to southeast near 10 knots, with bay waters a light chop. If somebody wanted a quiet evening ride or a last-light look, the bay had the better comfort call.

Tomorrow, Monday, is still fishable. Hawk Channel gets east to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. The Straits are east to southeast 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet, and wave detail east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Florida Bay is near 10 knots, briefly down to 5 to 10 knots, with smooth to light chop at times.

The Gulf Stream edge updated today too. NOAA lists it 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 3 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough to keep the outside interesting, but the same rule stands for Monday. Fish the reef first unless the outside shows birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a hard color edge. Alligator, Crocker, Davis, and Molasses all stay in the conversation.

Monday’s best plan is simple. Start with the reef while the breeze is down a touch, keep a mutton bait honest on the deeper side, and only spend fuel offshore if the water gives you a real reason.

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Data sources: NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:23 AM EDT and updated 10:18 AM EDT and 4:32 PM EDT July 12, 2026; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel, 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key, and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of July 12, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.