Captain's log, July 13, 2026, east breeze, easing reef chop, dry sky

Monday, July 13. NOAA Key West has a useful July setup for Islamorada today, not flat at daylight, but improving as the day goes on. The forecast came out at 4:28 AM EDT, and the story is steady east to southeast breeze under a dry Saharan dust sky.

Hawk Channel starts with east to southeast wind near 15 knots, then drops to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas are 2 to 3 feet early, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters going from a moderate chop to smooth to a light chop. That is a much better reef forecast after lunch than it looks before coffee.

The Straits are still the honest side. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet early, then settling to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds.

So the call is pretty simple. Fish the reef first, especially if you can work the late morning and afternoon as it eases. Look offshore only if the water gives you a reason.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 15 knots, easing to 5 to 10 in Hawk Channel this afternoon
Hawk Channel	seas 2 to 3 feet early, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Straits	seas 2 to 4 feet early, occasionally to 5, then 2 to 3 feet
Florida Bay	near 15 knots easing to 5 to 10, moderate chop becoming smooth to light chop
Rain	rain-free forecast tied to Saharan dust
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 87.1 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 3 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day as the wind eases, fair offshore, fair bay early

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the better improving story today. NOAA starts it with east to southeast wind near 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters a moderate chop. By afternoon, the wind is forecast down to 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop.

That matters for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee. The morning ride can still have some punch in it, but the forecast is not building against you. It is laying down.

If I had a half day with a family or a crew that does not love getting slapped around, I would not rush the longest run. Let the wind take a step down, then fish where the current looks clean.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are workable, but not pretty enough to make a blind run. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 15 knots, becoming east and dropping to 10 to 15 knots. Seas start 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, then subside to 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds.

That short period is the part to respect. A 3 foot sea at 5 seconds can make the ride feel bigger than the number sounds, especially before the breeze backs down.

The Gulf Stream edge is close, listed by NOAA as 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 3 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 12. Close blue water is good. Empty close blue water is still empty. Birds, bait, a hard color change, or a weed edge should make the decision, not the chart line alone.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay starts with east to southeast winds near 15 knots and a moderate chop, then eases to 5 to 10 knots with smooth to light chop. Vaca Key, Florida Bay showed 87.1 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is warm water. Early and late are the better bay windows for bonefish, permit, and tarpon. Midday can still work where there is moving water, but the heat makes fish less forgiving and people less patient.

tides for monday, july 13

NOAA predictions for Vaca Key, Florida Bay show the bigger movement late today.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	11:15 AM EDT	1.21 ft	late morning high
Low	6:52 PM EDT	-0.15 ft	evening low

NOAA predictions for Upper Matecumbe Key give the bay-side read closer to Islamorada.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	4:14 AM EDT	0.16 ft	early low
High	9:51 AM EDT	0.81 ft	morning high
Low	6:19 PM EDT	-0.19 ft	evening low
High	11:44 PM EDT	0.35 ft	late high

The useful fishing window is the fall after the morning high. That lines up well with the forecast easing in Hawk Channel. Current should have time to get organized without the wind beating the reef up all day.

For snapper, I would rather fish moving water after the high than sit through slack and pretend chum is magic. The evening low is low enough to matter, but watch the ride home and the light.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses gets the outside temptation today because NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge only 3 NM southeast of the light. That is close. It is also the easiest place to talk yourself into leaving fish to go look at water.

Fish the reef first if the current is moving. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 70 feet with a clean chum line. Cero mackerel are fair when bait shows in the slick. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth setting, especially once the morning chop starts to back down.

If the outside has birds or a real edge, take a look. If it is just blue and pretty, do not marry it.

Conch reef

Conch should be steady as the sea eases. Start in 50 to 80 feet and let the current tell you if you are in the right place.

Yellowtail are the main play. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side with a good bait. Mangroves are fair around broken bottom, especially with the summer spawn still part of the reef conversation.

The trick today is not fancy. Get the stern right. Keep the slick clean. Move if the current and wind fight each other.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada call. Shorter ride, good bottom, and no need to beat up a crew just to prove the boat can run farther.

Yellowtail should be good in 40 to 60 feet once the water moves. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure and patchy bottom. Cero mackerel are fair if bait piles in the chum.

For a family trip, Davis makes plenty of sense today. Fish do not hand out bonus points for running past them.

Crocker reef

Crocker is a good deeper-edge option after the wind eases. I would look at 55 to 80 feet, especially on the falling water after the morning high.

Yellowtail are good. Mutton snapper are fair with a live bait, fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or a small grunt on the right piece of bottom. Do not keep feeding dead water. If the slick is wrong, fix the boat or move.

Crocker rewards a clean setup. It punishes stubborn.

Alligator reef

Alligator has the best all-around grade today. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of the light, and the reef gives you room to work without committing to the outside.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around active bait.

The tower will pull boats. That does not mean the tower is the only place with fish. Work the water, not the postcard.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but it needs a reason from Islamorada. The forecast is improving, but the better time saver is still Davis, Crocker, or Alligator unless you are already pointed west.

If you do run it, work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangrove snapper. The deeper edge has a fair mutton shot. The afternoon easing wind makes Tennessee a better call than it would have been at first light.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 75 ft
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and patch reef with moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside look only around birds, weed, bait, or a hard edge
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat builds
Permit	fair early	moving water near cleaner edges
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best mark today because the reef has moving water, enough chop to keep it alive early, and a better afternoon sea state. That is a useful combination.

Muttons are a fair shot, not a promise. The fish are there, but the bait and placement have to be right. Put one good bait down and give it time. Do not turn the whole trip into watching a rod tip do nothing.

Mahi are fair because the Gulf Stream edge is close, especially off Molasses and Alligator. Fair does not mean automatic. If the outside is showing life, take the swing. If not, the reef is the grocery store today.

The bay is fair early. With 87.1 F water at Vaca Key, I would rather fish the cooler edges of the day and moving water than ask a flat to perform under the high sun.

captain’s call

Fish the reef. Alligator is the best mix of distance, bottom, and outside option. Davis is the easiest half-day call. Crocker is the deeper snapper play if the current sets up right.

Molasses is tempting because the Stream edge is close, and it deserves a look if the surface shows life. But the reef should get the first clean shot today.

The day is improving, not falling apart. Morning chop, easing afternoon, dry sky, warm water. Set up right, fish the fall after the morning high, and do not let close blue water talk you out of fish already behind the boat.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:38 AM EDT, and the midday read is a little kinder than the first one.

Hawk Channel is now east to southeast near 10 knots, easing to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas are still 2 to 3 feet early, then 1 to 2 feet, but the wind number came down from the near 15 knots we had in the morning forecast. That is the main improvement for the reef.

The Straits also cleaned up on paper. The morning forecast had 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet early, then 2 to 3 feet. The midday update has this afternoon at 10 to 15 knots with 2 to 3 foot seas and an east to southeast wave detail of 3 feet at 5 seconds. Still short-period water, still not slick calm, but less ugly than the first read.

Florida Bay eased too. The morning had near 15 knots before backing off. The midday forecast has east to southeast near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, with bay waters going from a light chop to smooth to a light chop.

The only catch is tonight. NOAA brings the breeze back up after dark, with Hawk Channel building to 2 to 3 feet and the Straits building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. So the afternoon window is the better one. Fish it clean and do not drag the ride home too late.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:18 PM EDT, and the afternoon read stayed about where it needed to be. The reef side was the better window once the day settled down. The sky stayed on the dry side too, with Saharan dust still keeping rain out of the forecast for now.

Tonight is not a green light to get lazy on the ride home. Florida Bay is east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots, with smooth to light chop becoming a light chop. Hawk Channel is east near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with 1 to 2 foot seas and nearshore waters building from a light chop to a light to moderate chop.

The Straits are the side to respect after dark. NOAA has east winds near 10 knots increasing to near 15 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet building to around 3 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That short-period stuff still rides tight, especially when everybody is tired and the light is gone.

Tuesday looks fishable, not soft. Florida Bay is east to southeast near 10 knots with a light chop. Hawk Channel is east to southeast 10 to 15 knots with seas around 2 feet and a light to moderate chop nearshore. The Straits are east near 15 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, and an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds.

So tomorrow is still a reef-first call out of Islamorada. Yellowtail and mangrove snapper get the cleanest plan. Muttons are worth a bait on the deeper edge if the current gives you something to work with. Offshore only earns the run if there are birds, weed, bait, or a real color edge. Otherwise, there is no shame in staying where the groceries live.

Conditions report based on NOAA National Weather Service Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:28 AM EDT, updated 10:38 AM EDT, and updated again at 4:18 PM EDT Monday, July 13, 2026, NOAA tide predictions for Vaca Key and Upper Matecumbe Key, and NOAA water temperature observations from Vaca Key, Florida Bay.