Captain's log, July 15, 2026, lighter reef chop and close Gulf Stream water

Wednesday, July 15. This is a workable July morning for Islamorada, with enough east breeze to keep the reef honest and enough easing in the forecast to make the day better as it goes.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:27 AM EDT. High pressure is stretched from the central North Atlantic back toward the Florida Peninsula, and that keeps the Keys under gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes through the rest of the week. The breeze should peak more in the evening and overnight, then lay down a little late morning and afternoon.

The Saharan dust is still part of the story. It should keep rain and thunder chances limited for the next several days. That is good for dodging storms. It also means the sun gets mean fast.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has northeast to east wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east to southeast near 10 knots today. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters going from a light to moderate chop to a light chop.

For the Straits, NOAA has northeast to east wind near 15 knots becoming east to southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is not a big sea, but it is close together.

At 5:18 AM EDT, Vaca Key reported northeast wind around 12 knots with gusts around 14 knots, pressure at 1018.6 mb, and water near 88.0 F. NOAA CO-OPS at Vaca Key, Florida Bay showed 87.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT. Sombrero Key had east wind around 12 knots with gusts around 16 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Molasses Reef station MLRF1 is disestablished and does not have a current live NDBC observation.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	northeast to east 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast near 10
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet, light to moderate chop easing to light chop
Straits	2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet
Wave detail	east 3 feet at 5 seconds in the Straits
Florida Bay	10 to 15 knots early, easing to 5 to 10 knots
Rain	slight shower and thunder chance, limited by Saharan dust
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 87.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator, 3 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look, hot bay water

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the main play today. Two to three feet is not flat, but it is clean enough to work if the crew is dressed right and the captain sets up with the current instead of fighting it.

The reef line from Molasses to Tennessee should be fishable. The best window is late morning into afternoon as the breeze settles closer to 10 knots. If you are yellowtailing, that matters. A little less wind makes it easier to keep the stern right, keep the chum line clean, and see what the fish are doing.

Do not overthink the first stop. If the current is moving and the slick looks right, give it a real chance. If the chum hangs under the boat or the wind lays you sideways, pick up and fix it.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are not shut down, but they are not a blind-run gift either. NOAA has 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with east 3 feet at 5 seconds. A 5 second period makes the ride feel tighter than a lazy swell.

NOAA lists the Gulf Stream edge as of July 12 at 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 3 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough to matter. It is also close enough to tempt people into wasting half a trip looking at empty water.

If the outside has birds, bait, a weed line, flyers, or a hard color change, take the look. If it is just blue water with no life on it, the reef is the better use of time.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay starts with northeast to east wind 10 to 15 knots, then becomes east to southeast and drops to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters go from light to moderate chop to smooth to light chop.

The water is hot. Vaca Key was 87.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That keeps the shallow game on an early and late schedule. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but midday heat makes everybody pickier, including the people on the boat.

tides for wednesday, july 15

NOAA tide predictions for Whale Harbor, Windley Key, Hawk Channel give the ocean side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	4:28 AM EDT	-0.10 ft	early low
High	10:15 AM EDT	1.58 ft	morning high
Low	4:50 PM EDT	-0.39 ft	afternoon low
High	10:52 PM EDT	1.66 ft	evening high

NOAA tide predictions for Islamorada, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay show the bay side water.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	12:25 AM EDT	0.39 ft	overnight high
Low	6:10 AM EDT	0.11 ft	morning low
High	11:44 AM EDT	0.82 ft	late morning high
Low	7:51 PM EDT	-0.13 ft	evening low

For the reef, the falling water after the 10:15 AM ocean side high is the cleanest piece of the day. That gives yellowtail and muttons a real current window while the wind is supposed to ease. I would rather fish that than burn fuel early just because the Stream edge is close.

The bay has a late morning high and a long fall into the evening low. Good moving water, hot surface temperature. Fish the cleaner edges and do not ask the flats to be forgiving at noon.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses gets the outside option because NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 3 NM southeast of the light. That is close water.

Start on the reef before chasing it. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current pulls clean. Cero mackerel are fair in the slick when bait shows. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth soaking.

The old Molasses live station is gone, so do not lean on fake buoy talk. Read the water with your eyes. If the edge has life, peek outside. If the snapper are eating, stay put and fill the box.

Conch reef

Conch should fish steady in this setup. East breeze, 2 to 3 feet in Hawk Channel, falling tide after the morning high. That is normal working water for July.

Yellowtail are the main target in 50 to 80 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge with live bait or fresh cut bait. Mangroves are fair around structure and broken bottom, especially later in the day if the light softens a little.

This is not a hero run. It is a clean setup spot. Get the chum right and let the fish climb.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical half day reef. Shorter ride, good bottom, and plenty of room to work without turning the trip into a sightseeing run.

Fish 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail. Keep a mutton bait down if the current has direction. Cero mackerel are fair when bait gets pushed through the slick.

If the crew is mixed or the wind is still hanging closer to 15 knots, Davis makes sense. There is no extra credit for running past fish.

Crocker reef

Crocker is a good call once the breeze eases. I like the 55 to 80 foot edge today, especially on the fall after the ocean side high.

Yellowtail should be good if the slick stretches. Mutton snapper are fair with a patient bait on the deeper side. Mangroves are fair around structure when the current is not too hard.

The trick is staying honest. If the current is wrong, move. Crocker can be very good, but it does not pay for stubborn.

Alligator reef

Alligator has the best all around grade today. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of the light, and the reef gives you plenty of places to work before you decide whether the outside deserves fuel.

Yellowtail are good in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and chum. The tower will pull boats, but the bite is not married to the tower.

If the outside has birds or a weed edge, Alligator gives you a reasonable look. If not, the reef itself is enough of a plan.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today, but it needs a reason from Islamorada. The forecast is workable, not slick. Davis, Crocker, and Alligator are cleaner time choices unless you already planned to run west.

If you do fish it, work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Put one good bait on the deeper edge for a mutton. The afternoon low at Whale Harbor gives a useful falling-water window.

Do not let the map make the decision. Let the sea and current do it.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 80 ft
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and evening current
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks with bait on the reef
Mahi mahi	fair	outside look only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Sailfish	fair	current edge near Molasses and Alligator
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat gets heavy
Permit	fair early	moving water near cleaner bay edges
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The reef is fishable, the tide gives a real falling-water window, and the forecast eases instead of building through the middle of the day. Keep the chum steady. Fish light enough to get bites. Stop feeding dead water.

Muttons are fair. That means a couple good chances, not a guarantee. Fresh bait and placement matter more than wishful thinking.

Mahi are fair because the Gulf Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator. The Straits have a short-period sea, so do not make a blind run unless the ocean shows something worth chasing.

The flats are heat limited. Vaca Key was already near 88 F before 6 AM. Early and late are the honest windows for bonefish, permit, and tarpon. Midday is for shade, patience, and lower expectations.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Alligator, Crocker, Davis, and Conch are the clean calls from Islamorada. Molasses gets the outside peek because the Stream edge is tight, but the reef bite should decide whether you leave.

The ocean is workable. Not glass, not ugly. Just July east breeze, hot water, dry air, and enough current to make the snapper line worth setting.

If the wind eases like NOAA says, the late morning and afternoon should be better than daybreak. Set up on the fall after the 10:15 AM Whale Harbor high, keep one mutton bait honest, and only go offshore if the water gives you a real reason.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:26 AM EDT. The main call did not change much, which is useful by itself. The wind has clocked more straight east for the midday forecast, instead of the earlier northeast to east start, and it is still expected to ease toward east to southeast later today.

Hawk Channel is still 10 to 15 knots becoming east to southeast near 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are still a light to moderate chop, easing to a light chop. That keeps the reef plan intact.

The Straits are also holding steady. NOAA now has east winds near 15 knots becoming east to southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas stay 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with the same east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. So the outside did not get worse, but it did not lay down into anything soft either.

Florida Bay eased a little from the morning wording. The new forecast has east wind near 10 knots becoming east to southeast and dropping to 5 to 10 knots, with bay waters going from a light chop to smooth to light chop. That is better than the earlier 10 to 15 knot start.

The dry Saharan dust pattern is still in place, and NOAA still only carries a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The honest update is simple: less north in the wind, same reef seas, same short-period Straits chop, and a better bay ride as the afternoon goes on.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West issued the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:32 PM EDT. The afternoon played about like the midday call said it would. The wind backed off enough to keep the reef fishable, but the outside never turned into a slick ride.

At Vaca Key, the 4:18 PM EDT observation had east wind around 8 knots with gusts around 12 knots, pressure at 1018.2 mb, and water at 32.1 C, about 89.8 F. Sombrero Key was still a little breezier at 4:40 PM EDT, with east wind around 11 knots and gusts around 13 knots.

For tonight, NOAA has Hawk Channel east wind near 15 knots early, dropping to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop. The Straits stay at 2 to 3 feet with an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That short period is still the part you feel in your knees.

Florida Bay gets the softer ride tonight, with east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast to east. Bay waters stay smooth to a light chop. There is still only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the Saharan dust helping keep rain chances low.

Thursday looks better for the reef than it does for a blind offshore run. Hawk Channel is forecast for east wind near 10 knots, easing to 5 to 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet dropping to around 1 foot. The Straits hold east wind 10 to 15 knots and 2 to 3 feet, with an east 3 foot wave at 4 seconds.

So the plan for tomorrow is pretty plain. Start with the reef, especially Alligator, Crocker, Davis, and Conch. Yellowtail should still be the best bet if the current has any manners. Keep a mutton bait down and take the outside look only if the water shows birds, weed, bait, or a hard color change. The Gulf Stream edge is still close off Alligator and Molasses, but close water is not the same thing as alive water.

The bay side is worth an early look before the heat stacks up. With Vaca Key water near 90 F this afternoon, the shallow game needs moving water and timing. Do not ask the flats to be generous in the middle of the day.

Conditions report based on NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:27 AM EDT Wednesday, July 15, 2026, with midday addendum from the 10:26 AM EDT update and evening addendum from the 4:32 PM EDT update, NDBC latest observations from Vaca Key and Sombrero Key, NOAA CO-OPS water temperature at Vaca Key, and NOAA tide predictions for Whale Harbor, Windley Key, Hawk Channel and Islamorada, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay.