Captain's log, July 18, 2026, southeast breeze and reef water with some bump

Saturday, July 18. The reef is still on the board, but this is not the glassy little gift we had yesterday.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:34 AM EDT. A closed upper level low is sitting just off the west coast of Florida, with high pressure over the western North Atlantic starting to push more influence back into the Keys. The practical read is simple enough. Southeast breeze, a little stronger overnight, then some afternoon lull.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has southeast to south wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast and easing to near 10 knots. Seas are around 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

For the Straits, NOAA has southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast and decreasing to near 10 knots this afternoon. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with east to southeast wave detail of 2 feet at 4 seconds. Tonight builds a little, with 2 to 4 feet and occasional 5 footers in the forecast.

At 9:40 AM UTC, Long Key was showing southeast wind at 12.1 knots with gusts to 15.9 knots and pressure at 1016.0 mb. Sombrero Key was showing southeast wind at 11.1 knots with gusts to 15.0 knots and pressure at 1016.8 mb. Vaca Key, Florida Bay last had usable water temperature from July 17 at 14:00 UTC, with 89.6 F water.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast to south 10 to 15 knots, easing near 10 knots this afternoon
Hawk Channel	around 2 feet
Straits	2 to 3 feet
Wave detail	east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast wind near 10 knots, bay waters a light chop
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.6 F, latest usable reading July 17 at 14:00 UTC
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef fishing if the crew can handle some chop, fair offshore look, tough midday flats heat

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is fishable, just not flat. Southeast to south at 10 to 15 knots puts a little rattle in the ride and a little swing on the hook, especially if the current is weak.

The reef side should get cleaner as the breeze eases toward near 10 knots this afternoon. Morning trips need a crew that is fine with a little salt spray. Afternoon trips get the better comfort if the forecast lull shows up.

Yellowtailing is still the first play. Keep the chum tight, fish the current you actually have, and do not force a spot if the boat will not sit right.

straits of Florida

The Straits are open, but not wide open. NOAA has 2 to 3 feet today with a short 4 second east to southeast wave. That is a quick sea, not a big one.

The Gulf Stream edge is close again. NOAA has it 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 17. That keeps the outside option honest, especially if birds, weed, or bait show along the edge.

I would not burn the morning running blind. Fish the reef first. If the water outside looks alive, go look. If it is empty blue water with no birds and no flyers, let somebody else donate the fuel.

florida bay

Florida Bay is a light chop today with southeast wind near 10 knots. It is not ugly, but the heat is still the problem. The latest usable Vaca Key water temperature was 89.6 F.

Tarpon, bonefish, and permit can still eat in July. The good water is early, shaded, or moving. Once the sun gets high and that shallow water starts cooking, the bite gets picky fast.

tides for saturday, july 18

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, Hawk Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	7:03 AM EDT	-0.14 ft	morning low
High	12:51 PM EDT	1.51 ft	midday high
Low	7:25 PM EDT	-0.05 ft	evening low

Islamorada, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	2:19 AM EDT	0.52 ft	overnight high
Low	9:08 AM EDT	0.09 ft	morning low
High	2:15 PM EDT	0.65 ft	afternoon high
Low	9:54 PM EDT	0.04 ft	night low

The reef tide is workable. The incoming water into the 12:51 PM high should be the cleaner part of the day if the current has enough push to carry chum. After that, the fall toward 7:25 PM can fish too, especially for mangroves and a mutton bait down on the edge.

The bay side has a small low at 9:08 AM and a modest high at 2:15 PM. That can work, but only if you respect the heat. Early shots matter more than long shots today.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets the cleanest blue water option because the Gulf Stream edge is only 2 NM southeast of the light. That is close enough to keep one eye outside while still making a real reef trip.

Start in 45 to 75 feet. Yellowtail should be good if the current lines up. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and chum.

The southeast breeze will put some texture on the outside. If the crew is green, do not turn a good reef bite into a bouncy scouting mission.

conch reef

Conch is a steady half-day reef choice in this wind. It gives enough depth for yellowtail and muttons without adding unnecessary running.

Fish 50 to 80 feet and keep the chum consistent. Yellowtail are good. Muttons are fair if you keep a clean bait on the bottom and give it time.

davis reef

Davis is the efficient Islamorada call when you want time fishing instead of time riding. Around 2 feet in Hawk Channel is manageable here, especially if the afternoon ease shows up.

Yellowtail are good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure. A mutton bait is worth soaking once the slick starts tracking straight.

crocker reef

Crocker should fish if the current behaves. The 55 to 80 foot edge is the better bet, with enough water to find yellowtail and still keep a bottom bait in the game.

The short-period sea can make the boat move around. Reset if the anchor angle is wrong. A bad slick wastes more time than a five minute move.

alligator reef

Alligator is probably the best all-around Islamorada reef call today. The Gulf Stream edge is 6 NM southeast of the light, so the reef and outside edge are both within reach.

Yellowtail are good in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. Mangroves are fair later if the falling tide has some pull. The tower can stack boats, so slide away from the crowd if needed.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but the run west matters more in a southeast breeze. If the crew is solid, it is worth a look. If not, there is no shame in keeping the trip tighter.

Work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Keep a bottom bait ready for a mutton. If the water looks pretty but the current is lazy, keep moving until the chum has a job.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef edge from Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 80 ft
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edges, clean bottom bait, patient drift back
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure and patch reef, better on moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	bait schools and chum slicks on the reef
Mahi mahi	fair	only if weed, birds, flyers, or a hard edge show outside
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge bite, birds and bait required
Sailfish	poor	possible, but July numbers are not the reason to go
Tarpon	fair	early bay and bridge water before the heat gets rude
Bonefish	fair	early skinny water with movement
Permit	fair	edges of channels and flats before midday heat

the captain’s call

This is a reef-first day. Not rough enough to stay tied up, not calm enough to pretend the ocean is asleep.

Molasses and Alligator have the best outside connection because the Stream is close. Davis and Crocker are the practical Islamorada plays if the goal is to put fish in the box without turning the morning into a scouting mission.

Yellowtail should be the meat fish today. Muttons get a fair shot if the current straightens out. For the blue water side, wait for signs before you commit. Birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a real color edge. No signs, no long hero run.

midday addendum, 10:33 am noaa update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:33 AM EDT, and the water has a little more bite than the early read.

The morning forecast had Hawk Channel southeast to south 10 to 15 knots, easing to near 10 knots this afternoon, with seas around 2 feet and nearshore waters going from a light to moderate chop to a light chop. The midday update now has southeast to south wind near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are still around 2 feet, but nearshore waters start as a moderate chop before settling into a light to moderate chop.

The Straits are the bigger change. This morning NOAA had 2 to 3 feet with an east to southeast wave detail of 2 feet at 4 seconds. The 10:33 AM update has south wind near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail is southeast 3 feet at 4 seconds. That is still fishable water for the right crew, but it is a quicker, wetter ride than the morning writeup showed.

Florida Bay also came up a notch. The first forecast had southeast wind near 10 knots and bay waters a light chop. The update has southeast to south wind near 15 knots, easing to 10 to 15 knots, with bay waters a moderate chop becoming light to moderate.

The plan does not need a full rewrite. It just needs a little more respect for the bump. Reef first still makes sense, especially Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses. Offshore is still a look only if the ocean gives you real signs. Tonight still builds in the Straits, with NOAA calling for 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.

Data sources: NOAA NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:34 AM EDT and updated 10:33 AM EDT July 18, 2026; NOAA NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1, Long Key station LONF1, and Vaca Key station VCAF1 observations; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of July 17, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.

evening addendum, 4:49 pm noaa update

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:49 PM EDT. The broad low over the eastern Gulf is still sliding northward through Monday, while the Atlantic ridge noses back toward the Florida Peninsula. That keeps the Keys in a southeast flow tonight and Sunday, with the usual overnight push and afternoon ease.

The afternoon did not turn into a layup. The midday bump was the right warning. Hawk Channel stayed fishable, but the southeast breeze had enough edge to make the ride wet in places and keep the anchor work honest. Reef first was still the right plan. Yellowtail and mangrove water needed current, clean chum, and a boat that would sit right. Offshore was still a look, not a promise.

For tonight, NOAA has Hawk Channel southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. The Straits are east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, with wave detail east to southeast 3 feet at 4 seconds. Florida Bay is southeast 10 to 15 knots with bay waters a light to moderate chop. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the local waters.

Sunday looks usable, with a better comfort window later in the day if the forecast easing shows up. Hawk Channel is forecast southeast to south 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas stay 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop to smooth to a light chop. The Straits are forecast southeast to south 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon, with seas 2 to 3 feet and east to southeast wave detail of 3 feet at 5 seconds. Florida Bay starts southeast to south near 15 knots, then backs down near 10 knots in the afternoon.

The Gulf Stream edge is still close enough to matter. NOAA lists it as of July 17 at 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, and 13 NM south of Sombrero Key Light. That gives Molasses and Alligator the outside bonus, but I would still make the reef earn the morning before burning fuel. Birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a hard color edge can change the plan. Empty blue water cannot.

Tomorrow’s call is reef first again. Davis and Crocker are the efficient Islamorada plays. Alligator and Molasses get the best shot at mixing reef fishing with a short outside look. Yellowtail remain the best grade. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Mahi are fair only if the signs are there. The bay is fishable on paper, but hot July water means early, shaded, or moving water gets the respect.

Evening addendum based on NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:49 PM EDT Saturday, July 18, 2026.