Captain's log, July 19, 2026, southeast breeze and fishable reef water

Sunday, July 19. The reef is open for business, but it is not a lazy glass calm morning.

NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:26 AM EDT. A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of America is sliding northward through Monday, with gentle to moderate south to southeast breeze over the Keys. The Atlantic ridge hangs close enough to keep that southeast pattern in the forecast for the next several days, with overnight pushes and afternoon lulls.

That is the part that matters on deck. Morning has some breeze on it. Afternoon should get more comfortable if the wind backs down like NOAA has it.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has southeast to south winds near 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots this afternoon. Seas are 2 to 3 feet early, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from a moderate chop to a light chop. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

For the Straits, NOAA has southeast to south winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is a short sea early, then a better ride if the afternoon laydown happens.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay was showing 88.7 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. It is July hot. Fish early, fish moving water, and do not expect the flats to forgive a late start.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast to south near 15 knots, easing near 10 knots in Hawk Channel and 5 to 10 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet early, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Straits	2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet early, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Wave detail	southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds in the Straits
Florida Bay	southeast to south near 15 knots easing near 10 knots, moderate chop becoming light chop
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef day for the right crew, fair offshore look after the morning bump, fair bay bite early

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the best working lane today. Not flat, but very doable.

The morning starts with southeast to south wind near 15 knots and 2 to 3 foot seas. That can make the run wet if you are pointed wrong, especially around the open stretches. By afternoon NOAA has the wind easing near 10 knots and the seas falling to 1 to 2 feet.

That setup favors a reef-first plan. Get the chum going, let the current show itself, and move if the boat will not sit clean. Yellowtail fishing does not need heroics. It needs a straight slick and enough patience to let the better fish climb.

straits of Florida

The Straits have more edge this morning. NOAA is calling 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with a southeast 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is not a big ocean, but it is tight enough to make a small crew pay attention.

The afternoon forecast is better, with winds dropping to 5 to 10 knots and seas falling to 1 to 2 feet. If that happens, the outside look gets a lot more interesting.

The Gulf Stream edge is close. NOAA lists it 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 17. That keeps Molasses and Alligator in play for a short outside check, but I would still make the water earn it. Birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a sharp color edge are worth a turn of the wheel. Empty water is just fuel leaving the tank.

florida bay

Florida Bay starts with southeast to south winds near 15 knots, then eases near 10 knots. Bay waters are forecast as a moderate chop becoming a light chop.

The water temperature at Vaca Key was 88.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is warm enough to make the shallow stuff moody after the sun gets up. Tarpon, bonefish, and permit can still eat, but the good window is early or on moving water.

tides for sunday, july 19

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, Hawk Channel gives the ocean-side read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	1:10 AM EDT	1.50 ft	overnight high
Low	7:55 AM EDT	-0.10 ft	morning low
High	1:42 PM EDT	1.44 ft	early afternoon high
Low	8:18 PM EDT	0.09 ft	evening low

Islamorada, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	2:59 AM EDT	0.57 ft	overnight high
Low	10:14 AM EDT	0.11 ft	morning low
High	3:12 PM EDT	0.55 ft	afternoon high
Low	10:33 PM EDT	0.12 ft	night low

For the reef, the morning low at 7:55 AM and the push toward the 1:42 PM high should give the chum a job if the current lines up. If it is running too hard against the wind, shorten the leader, keep the presentation clean, and do not overfeed the slick.

On the bay side, the 10:14 AM low into the 3:12 PM high is the main piece. The tide is usable. The heat is the tax.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses has the best blue water connection today because the Gulf Stream edge is only 2 NM southeast of the light. That does not mean run offshore blind. It means you can fish the reef and still keep an eye on the outside lane.

Start in 45 to 75 feet if the water is clean. Yellowtail should be good with steady current. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side with a clean bait down low. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and a good chum line.

If the morning sea is still standing up, keep the plan tight. Fish the reef first. Let the ocean calm down before stretching the trip.

conch reef

Conch is a good practical reef stop in this southeast flow. It gives enough depth to work yellowtail and muttons without betting the whole morning on a long outside ride.

Fish 50 to 80 feet. If the current is steady, yellowtail should be good. If the current is lazy or swinging, do not sit there and hope it fixes itself. Move until the chum line points somewhere useful.

davis reef

Davis is the efficient Islamorada call. Shorter run, plenty of structure, and enough protection from wasting half the trip in transit.

In 40 to 60 feet, yellowtail are the first target. Mangrove snapper are fair around the structure, especially if the water moves. Keep one bait down for a mutton once the slick settles.

This is the reef I like for mixed crews today. You can get fish in the box without turning the morning into a test ride.

crocker reef

Crocker should fish in the 55 to 80 foot range if the boat sits right. The southeast breeze can make the anchor angle annoying, so pay attention early.

Yellowtail are good when the slick straightens out. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Mangroves are fair later in the day or tighter to structure.

A bad set will ruin a good spot. If the bait is walking sideways or the chum is sliding under the boat, pick it up and reset.

alligator reef

Alligator has one of the better all-around looks today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so the reef and outside edge are both close enough to matter.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair deeper. Mangroves are fair if the evening fall has enough pull.

The tower area can get busy. If the fleet is stacked up, slide off the obvious marks and fish your own water.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but the westward run has to make sense for the crew. In a southeast breeze, that ride can feel longer than it looks on the chart.

Work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Keep a bottom bait ready for mutton snapper. If the water is clean and the current behaves, it can be a solid pick. If the sea stays lumpy early, Davis, Crocker, or Alligator are the smarter first swings.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef edge from Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 80 ft
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge, clean bottom bait, patient presentation
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure and patch reef, better on moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	bait schools and chum slicks on the reef
Mahi mahi	fair	only if weed, birds, flyers, or a hard edge show outside
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge bite, birds and bait required
Sailfish	poor	possible, but July is not prime sailfish time
Tarpon	fair	early bay and bridge water before the heat builds
Bonefish	fair	early flats with clean moving water
Permit	fair	channel edges and flats before midday heat

the captain’s call

This is a reef-first Sunday.

Molasses and Alligator get the bonus because the Stream edge is close. Davis and Crocker are the cleaner Islamorada work choices if the crew wants fish in the box without a long bounce. Conch is steady if the current is right. Tennessee is worth it only if the ride west makes sense after you see the morning ocean.

Yellowtail are the best bet. Muttons get a fair shot on the deeper edges. Mangroves can happen around structure. Offshore is a maybe, not a plan, until the ocean shows birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a proper color change.

Do the simple stuff right today. Clean anchor set. Controlled chum. Sharp hooks. No long run just because the chart looks pretty.

midday addendum, 11:24 am noaa update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 11:24 AM EDT, and the main change is outside in the Straits. The reef lane still looks about like the morning read. The blue water has a little more teeth on it.

The morning forecast had the Straits easing down to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, with seas falling from 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, to 1 to 2 feet. The midday update keeps south wind near 15 knots longer, only dropping near 10 knots late. Seas are now 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, then settling to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail stays southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds.

Hawk Channel did not change much. NOAA still has southeast to south wind near 15 knots decreasing near 10 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet dropping to 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters going from a moderate chop to a light chop.

Florida Bay also holds close to the morning call, southeast to south near 15 knots easing near 10 knots, with bay waters a moderate chop becoming a light chop.

The other news is the Gulf system now has a name on the board as Tropical Depression Two. At 11:00 AM EDT it was centered over the northeastern Gulf of America, about 280 nautical miles northwest of Key West Harbor, moving north-northwest at 2 knots. For our water, NOAA still keeps gentle to moderate south to southeasterly breeze in place through Thursday.

So the plan stays reef first. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses still make sense. Offshore is less friendly than the early writeup wanted, and I would not burn fuel into the Straits unless the signs are right there in front of you.

evening addendum, 4:54 pm noaa update

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:54 PM EDT, and the afternoon read cleaned up some of the sharper edges from midday.

The Straits are no longer carrying the midday 3 to 4 foot call into tonight. NOAA now has south to southwest wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast to south late, with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds and west to northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. There is still a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, so keep an eye west and south after dark.

Hawk Channel sits in the better working lane. Tonight is south wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast to south and increasing near 15 knots after midnight. Seas stay 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop to a moderate chop. That is fishable water, just not the kind of night where you stop paying attention because the dock looks calm.

Florida Bay is similar. Southeast to south wind 10 to 15 knots, increasing near 15 knots after midnight, with bay waters building from a light to moderate chop to a moderate chop.

Tropical Depression Two is still the weather name on the board. At 5:00 PM EDT it was centered over the northeastern Gulf of America and is expected to move slowly northwestward or north-northwestward during the next day or two before turning west. For the Keys, NOAA keeps gentle to moderate south to southeasterly breeze across the coastal waters through Thursday.

For Monday, July 20, the simple call is another fishable day with some south wind on it.

Hawk Channel has south winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. The Straits have south winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and east to southeast wave detail at 2 feet every 4 seconds. Florida Bay has south winds 10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.

Monday tides are usable for a reef plan. Whale Harbor, Windley Key, Hawk Channel shows a low at 8:47 AM EDT at -0.04 ft, then a high at 2:34 PM EDT at 1.36 ft. Islamorada, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay shows a low at 11:23 AM EDT at 0.11 ft, then a high at 4:09 PM EDT at 0.46 ft.

That gives the reef a clean morning low into afternoon push if the current behaves. Yellowtail stay the best bet. Muttons are still a patience play on the deeper edge. Mangroves are worth keeping honest around structure, especially if the evening water has some pull.

Offshore is a maybe, not a promise. With the Gulf Stream edge still listed 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, you can check outside without making a big speech about it. If there are birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a hard color edge, look. If it is empty, go back to work on the reef.

Data sources: NOAA NWS Key West Coastal Waters Forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT and updated 11:24 AM EDT and 4:54 PM EDT Sunday, July 19, 2026; NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel, 8723808 Upper Matecumbe Key, and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay; NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of July 17, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.