Captain's log, July 20, 2026, south breeze, reef chop, close Gulf Stream

Monday, July 20. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:50 AM EDT, and the morning has some shove in it, but not enough to ruin the reef plan.

The big weather piece is Tropical Depression Two sitting over the northeastern Gulf of America at 5:00 AM EDT. NOAA expects it to move slowly northwest, then turn west, while an Atlantic ridge keeps the Florida Peninsula in the pattern for the next several days. For the Keys, that means the breeze peaks overnight and lulls during the day through Thursday.

For Islamorada reef boats, today is a south wind morning with an easing trend. Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is south 10 to 15 knots, decreasing near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters going from a light to moderate chop to a light chop.

The Straits start at south 10 to 15 knots, then go southeast to south and ease to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and west 1 foot at 5 seconds.

That is fishable water. Not lazy water. Fish the reef clean, pay attention to the current, and do not make a blind run outside unless the surface gives you a reason.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	south 10 to 15 knots, easing near 10 in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet, light to moderate chop becoming light chop
Straits	2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Florida Bay	southeast to south 10 to 15 knots, easing near 10
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day as the breeze eases, fair outside look

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is workable, but it starts bumpy enough to matter for lighter crews. NOAA has south wind 10 to 15 knots this morning, dropping near 10 knots, with 2 to 3 foot seas. Nearshore waters start as a light to moderate chop and settle to a light chop.

That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee in play. The first part of the morning may ride a little square with that south wind, especially where the current is not helping. The better piece is the easing trend.

If the crew wants comfort, do not race past good bottom just to say you ran farther. Davis, Crocker, and Alligator make plenty of sense today.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are the improving side of the forecast. NOAA starts them at south 10 to 15 knots with 2 to 3 foot seas, then drops the wind to southeast to south at 5 to 10 knots and lets the sea subside to 1 to 2 feet. The wave detail is southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds with a west 1 foot wave at 5 seconds.

That is enough to look outside if there is life. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge close, listed July 17 at 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close blue water can help the mahi and blackfin conversation, but it does not catch fish by itself.

Birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a sharp color change earn the fuel. Pretty water with nothing in it does not.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay is not flat this morning. NOAA has southeast to south wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming south and easing near 10 knots. Bay waters start as a light to moderate chop and become a light chop.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 88.7 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot, but not the 90 degree soup we have seen on some July mornings. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still better early, late, and anywhere the water is moving clean.

tides for monday, july 20

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side tide read for the Islamorada reef line.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	1:59 AM EDT	1.323 ft	overnight high
Low	8:22 AM EDT	0.098 ft	morning low
High	2:29 PM EDT	1.010 ft	afternoon high
Low	8:12 PM EDT	0.146 ft	evening low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the bay side water movement.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	6:13 AM EDT	0.870 ft	early high
Low	12:02 PM EDT	0.216 ft	midday low
High	6:39 PM EDT	0.617 ft	evening high
Low	11:50 PM EDT	0.366 ft	late low

For the reef, the best meat of the day is the push from the 8:22 AM low toward the 2:29 PM high at Whale Harbor. That lines up with the wind easing, which is what you want. Get the chum line stretched right and make the current do some work.

For the bay, the fall into the midday low and the late rise toward 6:39 PM are the better pieces. The heat still matters. So does boat traffic.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses has the closest outside option today, with NOAA placing the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of the light as of July 17. That is close enough to watch the outside while you fish.

The reef bite should still come first. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 70 feet if the current stretches the chum. Cero mackerel are fair where bait shows in the slick. A mutton bait belongs on the deeper edge, especially during the rise into the afternoon high.

If the outside has birds or a real edge, take a look. If it is just blue and quiet, keep catching dinner.

Conch reef

Conch should fish steady once the boat lays right. The south wind can make some setups feel different than a clean east wind, so do not marry the first anchor drop if the slick is wrong.

Yellowtail are the main play in 50 to 80 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side with live bait or fresh cut bait. Mangroves are fair around structure, especially with moving water.

The forecast easing through the day helps Conch. The current still gets the vote.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada half day call. Short ride, enough reef, and no need to spend the whole morning proving the boat can take spray.

Yellowtail should be good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair around the ledges and patchy pieces. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks in the chum.

For families, Davis is a smart call today. The fish do not care how far you ran.

Crocker reef

Crocker is a good deeper edge option as the breeze eases. I would look in 55 to 80 feet on the rise, especially if the water cleans up and the current points right.

Yellowtail are good. Mutton snapper are fair with a live bait, pinfish, fresh ballyhoo, or a small grunt. If the stern does not sit right, fix the angle before blaming the fish.

Crocker can make a day when the setup is clean. It can also waste one if you sit through dead water.

Alligator reef

Alligator gets the best all around mark today. The Gulf Stream edge is 6 NM southeast of the light, and the reef gives you room to work without committing to a full outside hunt.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Ceros are fair around bait and active chum.

The tower will pull boats because it always does. Work the water, not the landmark.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today, especially later as Hawk Channel drops closer to a light chop. From Islamorada, it needs a reason because Davis, Crocker, and Alligator are closer and plenty workable.

If you are already pointed west, fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper side has a fair mutton shot on the right bait. Watch the evening timing if the breeze starts its overnight climb.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	Molasses through Tennessee in 40 to 75 ft
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge on the rise toward afternoon high
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and patch reef with moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks where bait is showing
Mahi mahi	fair	outside look only around birds, weed, bait, or color
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the heat builds
Permit	fair early	moving water near cleaner bay edges
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef is fishable, the ocean side tide gives a good rise, and the wind is forecast to ease instead of build through the day.

Muttons are a fair shot on the deeper reef edge. Give one good bait a job, but do not turn the trip into staring at one rod while the yellowtail are eating behind the boat.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator. Fair means conditional. No birds, no weed, no bait, no hard edge, no long wander.

The bay species are heat limited. With Vaca Key at 88.7 F before sunrise, I would rather fish moving water early or late than bake on slack water at noon.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Alligator has the best mix of distance, bottom, and outside option. Davis is the easy half day. Crocker is the deeper snapper call if the current behaves.

Molasses is tempting because the Stream edge is right there, and it deserves a look if the surface shows life. But the reef should get the first clean shot.

Today is not slick calm. It is a working summer reef day with south breeze early, better water later, close blue water, and enough tide to make the chum line matter.

midday addendum, 11:30 am noaa update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:27 AM EDT. The morning plan still holds, with a little more confidence in the afternoon easing trend.

The synopsis now has Tropical Depression Two centered over the northeastern Gulf of America at 8:00 AM EDT. NOAA still expects it to move slowly northwest during the next day or two, then turn west, while the Atlantic ridge keeps the Florida Peninsula in the pattern. For Keys boats, the useful part is the same: breezes peak overnight and lull during the day through Thursday. NOAA also says the moderate breezes, especially across the southeast Gulf, should slacken to gentle to moderate this afternoon.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge stayed steady. This afternoon is still south wind 10 to 15 knots, decreasing near 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop to a light chop. That is not a new ocean, it is the morning read aging the right way.

The Straits are still the better outside window if the surface shows life. NOAA kept south wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast to south and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas stay 2 to 3 feet early, then subside to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail remains southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and west 1 foot at 5 seconds.

Florida Bay did not change enough to rewrite the bay plan. Southeast to south wind 10 to 15 knots becomes south and drops near 10 knots, with bay waters settling from a light to moderate chop to a light chop. The heat is still the limiter, not the wind number.

For the rest of the day, I would keep it simple. Fish the reef while the breeze lays down, use the push toward the 2:29 PM Whale Harbor high, and only poke outside if there are birds, weed, bait, or a real edge. Tonight the breeze comes back near 15 knots out of the southeast, so do not build the evening around flat water staying flat.

evening addendum, 4:37 pm noaa update

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:37 PM EDT, and the afternoon stayed in the same working-water lane. Not nasty. Not flat. Just enough south and southeast breeze to keep the reef honest.

The updated synopsis has Tropical Depression Two centered over the northeastern Gulf of America as of 2:00 PM EDT, with a slow northwest move expected during the next day or two, then a turn toward the west. For the Keys, NOAA still has the Atlantic ridge extending into the Florida Peninsula, with breezes peaking overnight and laying down some during the day through Thursday.

Tonight the wind comes back a bit. Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is southeast to south near 10 knots, becoming southeast and increasing near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters go from a light chop to a moderate chop. That is fishable for a crew that knows what they signed up for, but it is not the evening to promise anybody glass.

The Straits have the same basic shape tonight. Southeast to south winds near 10 knots become southeast near 15 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds with a west 1 foot wave at 5 seconds. The Gulf Stream edge is still listed close, 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 17. Close water is worth watching, but only if the surface shows birds, weed, bait, or a clean edge.

Florida Bay also builds from light chop to moderate chop tonight as southeast to south wind near 10 knots becomes southeast near 15 knots. The bay had the 6:39 PM high at Vaca Key, then falls toward the 11:50 PM low. That is enough movement for an evening bridge or edge look, but the heat still has a say.

For Tuesday, July 21, the morning looks workable again, just not slick calm. Hawk Channel is forecast southeast near 15 knots, becoming east to southeast and dropping near 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet. The Straits hold southeast 10 to 15 knots and 2 to 3 feet, with east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds and a west 1 foot wave at 6 seconds. Florida Bay starts southeast near 15 knots, then drops near 10 knots.

My call for tomorrow is reef first. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses all stay in play for yellowtail, mangroves, and a deeper mutton bait if the current sets up right. The outside is a conditional look, not the whole plan. If the Stream edge has life on it, go take your shot. If it is empty blue water, keep the chum working and put dinner in the box.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:50 AM EDT and updated 10:27 AM EDT and 4:37 PM EDT Monday, July 20, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA stations Whale Harbor Channel and Vaca Key, Florida Bay. Water temperature from NOAA station Vaca Key, Florida Bay.