Captain's log, July 21, 2026, southeast breeze, 2 to 3 foot reef seas, hot bay water

Tuesday, July 21. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:40 AM EDT, and the reef is fishable, but it has some shoulder on it early.

Tropical Storm Bertha is sitting over the northeastern Gulf waters as of 5:00 AM EDT. NOAA expects Bertha to move slowly northwest or west northwest today, then turn west by the middle of the week. Around the Keys, the Atlantic ridge stays in place, and the useful part for boats is simple enough. The breeze peaks overnight and lays down some during the day.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has southeast to south wind near 15 knots this morning, becoming east to southeast and decreasing near 10 knots this afternoon. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters start as a moderate chop and settle to a light chop.

The Straits are a little bigger. NOAA has southeast wind near 15 knots, becoming east to southeast near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds with a west 2 foot wave at 6 seconds.

That is a reef-first forecast. Not a bad one. Just not the morning to sell anybody glass water.

At 5:30 AM EDT, Long Key was reading southeast at about 15 knots with gusts near 17 knots. Sombrero Key was east southeast at about 15 knots with gusts near 18 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 89.1 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast to south near 15 knots, easing near 10 this afternoon
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet, moderate chop becoming light chop
Straits	2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet
Florida Bay	moderate chop becoming light chop
Rain	slight chance tonight, mainly dry wording for today
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.1 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	fair to good reef day, conditional outside look

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is workable with a little bump early. Southeast to south wind near 15 knots and 2 to 3 foot seas will make the first ride feel like a real boat ride, especially for a light crew.

The afternoon easing trend is the good piece. Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all stay in play if the crew is comfortable and the sky behaves.

I would not overrun good reef bottom this morning. Davis and Crocker make plenty of sense for a half day. Alligator gets a better look as the wind settles. Molasses is tempting because of the Gulf Stream edge, but the reef still gets the first clean shot.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are fair, with size. NOAA has 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, easing to 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail matters too, east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds with a west 2 foot wave at 6 seconds. That is short-period water with a second little push in it.

NOAA lists the Gulf Stream edge as of July 17 at 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps blue water close to the upper reef line.

Close water is worth watching. It does not mean burn fuel on a blank ocean. Birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a hard color edge earn the outside run. Empty blue water can stay empty while the chum slick makes dinner.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay starts choppy too. NOAA has southeast to south wind near 15 knots, becoming southeast and decreasing near 10 knots this afternoon. Bay waters go from a moderate chop to a light chop.

The water is hot. Vaca Key showed 89.1 F before 6 AM. That keeps bonefish, permit, and tarpon on a short clock. Moving water early is the cleanest shot. Midday slack in July is a poor place to ask fish for favors.

tides for tuesday, july 21

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef line.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	2:42 AM EDT	1.309 ft	overnight high
Low	9:40 AM EDT	0.030 ft	morning low
High	3:28 PM EDT	1.290 ft	afternoon high
Low	10:08 PM EDT	0.334 ft	evening low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side water movement.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	6:45 AM EDT	0.927 ft	morning high
Low	1:15 PM EDT	0.121 ft	midday low
High	10:13 PM EDT	0.493 ft	late high
Low	12:33 AM EDT	0.410 ft	early Wednesday low

For the reef, the best window is the rise from the 9:40 AM Whale Harbor low toward the 3:28 PM high. That lines up with the wind easing, which is about as clean as today gets.

For the bay, the fall into the 1:15 PM low has movement, but the heat is the tax. I would rather work early water or wait for evening flow than sit in hot dead water at noon.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses has the most obvious outside temptation today. NOAA places the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of the light as of July 17.

Fish the reef first. Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 70 feet if the current runs clean on the rise. Cero mackerel are fair where bait shows in the slick. A mutton bait belongs on the deeper edge, but do not let one bait turn the whole trip into waiting.

If the outside has birds or a clean rip, take a look. If it is empty, turn back and keep the chum working.

Conch reef

Conch should fish fine once the breeze comes down a touch. Early, the southeast wind can make some anchor angles annoying, so reset if the slick is wrong.

Yellowtail are the main play in 50 to 80 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side with a live bait or fresh cut bait. Mangroves are fair where the structure has moving water.

The fishable part today is not complicated. Make the boat sit right, get the chum away from the stern, and do not feed tiny fish all morning because moving feels inconvenient.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada call today. Short ride, enough bottom, and no need to prove anything in a morning chop.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair around the ledges. Ceros are fair if bait gets nervous in the slick.

For families or mixed comfort crews, Davis is the honest choice. Plenty of days are won close to home.

Crocker reef

Crocker gets better as the morning tide turns and the wind starts easing. I would look in 55 to 80 feet and pay close attention to how the current pulls over the edge.

Yellowtail are fair to good. Muttons are fair with a real bait on the bottom. Fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or a small live grunt is worth more than a cooler full of lazy options.

If the stern does not sit right, fix the angle. Crocker rewards clean setup more than stubborn patience.

Alligator reef

Alligator is my best all-around mark today. The Gulf Stream edge is listed 6 NM southeast of the light, and the reef gives you room to work without making the whole trip about the outside.

Yellowtail should be good if the current stretches the chum. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait schools and active slicks.

The tower will draw attention because it always does. Fish the water around it, not the postcard.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, especially later once Hawk Channel drops closer to a light chop. From Islamorada, it needs a reason because Davis, Crocker, and Alligator are closer and already make sense.

If you are pointed west, work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper side has a fair mutton shot when the current behaves.

Watch the ride home if you stretch the day. NOAA has the breeze coming back near 15 knots tonight.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef edge in 40 to 75 ft with clean current
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper edge during the rise toward afternoon high
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges and patch reef with moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait is showing
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the water cooks
Permit	fair early	cleaner moving water on the bay side
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef is fishable and the tide gives us a real rise through the middle of the day. Keep the leader light enough and the chum steady enough to make them climb.

Muttons are a fair shot on the deeper reef edge. Put one good bait where it belongs. Then keep fishing instead of staring at it like it owes you rent.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator. Fair does not mean automatic. The ocean needs to show life before it gets fuel.

The bay species are heat limited. Vaca Key was already 89.1 F at 5:54 AM EDT, so early and late matter more than wishful thinking.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first and let the day improve. The morning has southeast breeze and a short sea, but the forecast eases this afternoon and the Whale Harbor tide rises from 9:40 AM to 3:28 PM.

Alligator gets the best mix of reef, distance, and outside option. Davis is the smart half day. Crocker is the deeper snapper play if the current points right. Molasses deserves an outside look only if the surface gives you a reason.

Today is a working summer reef day. Not slick. Not ugly. Put the chum in the water, keep the boat honest, and make the fish tell you where to spend the rest of the tide.

midday addendum, 10:29 AM NOAA update

NOAA Key West issued the late-morning coastal waters forecast at 10:29 AM EDT. The main change from the morning read is that the easing trend is more settled now, especially on the bay side.

Florida Bay cleaned up the most. The morning forecast had southeast to south wind near 15 knots easing near 10, with a moderate chop becoming light. The 10:29 AM package now has southeast wind near 10 knots this afternoon and bay waters a light chop. That is a better bay ride than we had at daylight.

Hawk Channel did not change much where it matters for the reef. NOAA still has southeast to south wind near 15 knots becoming southeast and decreasing near 10 knots this afternoon, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters go from a moderate chop to a light chop. So the reef call stays the same, fishable, not flat, better later than early.

The Straits are still the bigger water. NOAA keeps southeast wind near 15 knots easing near 10 knots, with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds with a west 2 foot wave at 6 seconds. That outside look still needs a reason, birds, weed, bait, or a real edge.

Tonight, the breeze comes back some. Expect east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots in Hawk Channel and the Straits, near 15 at times offshore, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. If you stretch the afternoon, plan the ride home like the ocean gets a little more attitude after dark.

evening addendum, 4:31 pm noaa update

NOAA Key West issued the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:31 PM EDT, and the afternoon finished about how the morning forecast advertised it. The breeze backed off enough to make the reef work better than it did at daylight, but it never turned into slick water.

Tropical Storm Bertha was centered over the northeastern Gulf waters as of 2:00 PM EDT. NOAA expects Bertha to keep moving slowly northwest or west northwest today, then turn west by the middle of the week. Around the Keys, the Atlantic ridge is still the local driver. Breezes keep peaking overnight and lulling during the day through Friday.

Tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is east to southeast near 10 knots, becoming southeast and increasing near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light chop to a moderate chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. That is still fishable water, but the ride home gets more honest after dark.

The Straits hold a little more push. NOAA has southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing near 15 knots tonight, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds and west 2 feet at 6 seconds. Close Gulf Stream water is still part of the story, with the edge listed 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 17.

Florida Bay builds some tonight too. East to southeast wind near 10 knots becomes southeast and increases to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters go from a light chop to a light to moderate chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

For Wednesday, July 22, the forecast looks workable again, especially if you let the morning settle instead of forcing the longest run first. Hawk Channel is forecast southeast near 15 knots, becoming east to southeast and dropping near 10 knots. Seas stay 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters go from a moderate chop to a light chop.

The Straits are forecast east to southeast 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds and west 2 feet at 7 seconds. That keeps the outside in the conditional bucket. Birds, weed, bait, or a hard color edge can make it worth a look. Empty blue water does not get a free pass.

My call for tomorrow is reef first again. Davis is the easy half day. Crocker and Alligator get the better snapper look if the current lays right. Molasses is worth watching because the Stream edge is close, but the fish still have to show you something before you burn the morning looking for them.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:40 AM EDT and updated 10:29 AM EDT and 4:31 PM EDT Tuesday, July 21, 2026. NOAA NDBC Long Key station LONF1 observation at 5:30 AM EDT July 21. NOAA NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1 observation at 5:40 AM EDT July 21. NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay. NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of July 17, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.