Captain's log, July 22, 2026, east southeast breeze, 2 to 3 foot reef seas, hot bay water

Wednesday, July 22. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:16 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line has a workable summer look.

Not flat. Not ugly. Just enough east and southeast breeze to keep the boat honest.

The local setup is still being shaped by the Atlantic ridge across the Florida Peninsula. Tropical Storm Bertha is over the northern Gulf waters, and around the Keys the wind pattern is more about that ridge holding in place. NOAA has gentle breezes becoming moderate overnight into early Thursday, then easing back by Friday. Light wind is expected this weekend.

For today, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots, briefly easing near 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters run light to moderate chop early, then settle toward a light chop.

The Straits are similar on paper. East to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, with wave detail east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds and a west 2 foot wave at 7 seconds. That is short-period summer water with a little leftover push underneath it.

At 5:40 AM EDT, Long Key was reading southeast wind around 12 knots with gusts near 15 knots. Sombrero Key was east wind around 10 knots with gusts near 12 knots at 5:30 AM EDT. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 88.7 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, easing near 10 at times
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet, light to moderate chop becoming light chop
Straits	2 to 3 feet, east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds
Florida Bay	light to moderate chop becoming light chop
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day if the crew is fine with a little morning chop

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is fishable today. East to southeast at 10 to 15 knots is enough to put texture on it, but 2 to 3 foot seas along the reef line are normal working water for July.

The better piece is the afternoon easing trend. That helps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all stay on the table. If the crew is green, start closer and let the ocean settle before stretching the run.

For most Islamorada trips, Davis, Crocker, and Alligator make the cleanest sense. You get good reef bottom without making the whole morning about the ride.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are not a no, but they need a reason. NOAA has 2 to 3 feet with east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds and a west 2 foot wave at 7 seconds. That mix can make the outside feel busier than the number looks.

NOAA lists the Gulf Stream edge as of July 17 at 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps blue water close to the upper reef line.

Close water does not mean automatic fish. Birds, weed, flyers, bait showers, or a hard color edge make the outside worth a look. If it is blank, keep the chum working on the reef.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay starts with east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, decreasing near 10 knots. Bay waters go from light to moderate chop to light chop.

The water is hot. Vaca Key was 88.7 F before 6 AM, so the bay side is on a clock. Early movement matters. Midday slack in July can feel like asking fish to work overtime in a sauna.

tides for wednesday, july 22

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef line.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	3:31 AM EDT	1.230 ft	early high
Low	10:34 AM EDT	0.088 ft	late morning low
High	4:24 PM EDT	1.239 ft	afternoon high
Low	11:04 PM EDT	0.405 ft	late low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side water movement.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	12:33 AM EDT	0.410 ft	overnight low
High	7:25 AM EDT	0.950 ft	morning high
Low	2:31 PM EDT	0.034 ft	afternoon low
High	8:10 AM EDT Thursday	0.953 ft	next morning high

For the reef, the cleanest window is the rise from the 10:34 AM Whale Harbor low toward the 4:24 PM high. That lines up with the forecast easing closer to 10 knots.

For the bay, the fall after the 7:25 AM high gives movement, but the heat is the tax. If I am hunting bonefish, permit, or tarpon, I want the early part of that water, not the tired middle of the day.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses has the closest Gulf Stream edge on the NOAA read, listed 2 NM southeast of the light as of July 17. That makes it tempting.

Fish the reef before you gamble outside. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 70 feet if the current runs clean on the rising tide. Cero mackerel are fair where bait stacks up in the slick. A mutton bait belongs on the deeper edge, but it should not stop the whole boat from fishing.

If the outside shows birds or a real edge, look at it. If it looks dead, do not turn a good reef day into an expensive boat ride.

Conch reef

Conch should fish fair to good once the wind eases a touch. The east and southeast breeze can make the anchor angle matter, so do not marry the first set if the slick is wrong.

Yellowtail are the main play in 50 to 80 feet. Mutton snapper are fair deeper with a live bait or fresh cut bait. Mangroves are fair where ledges have enough current to make them feed.

The rule today is simple. Make the chum line clean, keep the bait natural, and move if the boat is not sitting right.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada call. Short ride, plenty of bottom, and enough protection from making the morning harder than it needs to be.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair on structure. Ceros are fair if bait shows in the slick.

For families, kids, or mixed comfort crews, Davis is the honest pick. Plenty of good boxes come from not trying to prove anything.

Crocker reef

Crocker gets a better look as the tide starts rising after the late morning low. I would look in 55 to 80 feet and pay attention to how the current lays over the edge.

Yellowtail are fair to good. Muttons are fair on the deeper side with a real bait. Fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or a small live grunt is worth the effort.

If the current is weak or crooked, do not force it. Crocker rewards a clean setup and punishes stubborn anchoring.

Alligator reef

Alligator has the best all-around grade today. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of the light, close enough to keep an outside option alive without making the reef feel like plan B.

Yellowtail should be good if the current stretches the chum. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and active slicks.

The tower draws every eye out there. Fish the water, not the landmark.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, especially later in the day as nearshore waters settle toward a light chop. From Islamorada, it needs a purpose because Davis, Crocker, and Alligator are already giving you good options closer to home.

If you run that way, work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper side has a fair mutton shot when the current behaves.

Watch the clock. NOAA has the breeze holding 10 to 15 knots tonight, and a long ride home feels longer when everyone is cooked from July sun.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef edge in 40 to 75 ft with clean current
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge on the rise toward afternoon high
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges and patch reef with moving water
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait is nervous
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the water heats harder
Permit	fair early	clean moving bay water
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade today because the reef is fishable and the tide gives us a clean rise through the middle of the day. Keep the chum steady. Keep the leader light enough. Do not let tiny fish train you into feeding them all morning.

Muttons are a fair shot, not a sure thing. Put one good bait on the deeper edge and let it soak while the rest of the boat keeps working.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator. But fair means conditional. The ocean needs to show life before it earns the fuel.

The bay species are heat limited. With Vaca Key already at 88.7 F early, the best bay windows are early and late, especially where the water is moving.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. The morning has enough chop to notice, but the forecast gives us 10 to 15 knots and 2 to 3 foot seas, then a better afternoon as the breeze eases near 10 knots.

Alligator is my best all-around pick. Davis is the smart half day. Crocker gets the better deeper snapper look if the current lays right. Molasses deserves an outside look only if the surface gives you a reason.

This is a real summer workday on the reef. Put the boat where the current helps you, keep the chum doing its job, and do not burn the morning chasing empty blue water just because the Stream is close.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:16 AM EDT Wednesday, July 22, 2026. NOAA NDBC Long Key station LONF1 observation at 5:40 AM EDT July 22. NOAA NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1 observation at 5:30 AM EDT July 22. NOAA Tides and Currents stations 8723797 Whale Harbor Channel and 8723970 Vaca Key, Florida Bay. NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of July 17, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:30 AM EDT. The main reef call did not move much. Hawk Channel is still east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, briefly easing near 10 knots, with seas holding 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are still forecast to slide from light to moderate chop toward a light chop.

The Straits also held steady on the numbers. East to southeast wind stays 10 to 15 knots, seas remain 2 to 3 feet, and the wave detail still shows east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds with a west 2 foot wave at 7 seconds. That is the same short-period water we had in the morning report, so the outside is still a “show me life first” deal.

The bay side got a little friendlier for the afternoon than the early forecast. Florida Bay is now east to southeast near 10 knots for this afternoon with a light chop. Tonight, NOAA brings it back up to 10 to 15 knots and a light to moderate chop. So if you are working the bay, the softer piece is now, not later.

Bertha is still north of us in the Gulf picture, and NOAA still has the local Keys pattern tied to the Atlantic ridge. Gentle breeze now, moderate overnight into early Thursday, then lighter again by Friday. Same fishing answer as this morning. Reef first, outside only if the water earns it, and do not wait around for the bay to cool off in July.

Midday source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:30 AM EDT Wednesday, July 22, 2026.

evening addendum, 4:27 PM EDT NOAA update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:27 PM EDT, and the late day read stayed in the same lane with a little more night breeze. The afternoon was fishable summer water, not slick calm and not nasty. Reef first was still the right call, especially for crews that wanted to work instead of just run.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile Bridge is east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters a light to moderate chop and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. That is manageable, but it is not the kind of night where you pretend the chop is gone just because the sun is low.

The Straits stay worth respect. NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots tonight, seas 2 to 3 feet, with wave detail east 3 feet at 5 seconds and west 1 foot at 7 seconds. That short period still makes the outside a conditional move. If there are birds, weed, bait, or a clean color change, take the look. If not, the reef is the better paycheck.

Florida Bay builds a touch tonight too. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with bay waters going from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. The bay can still fish around moving water, but the heat and the night breeze both matter.

Tomorrow, Thursday, looks workable with more weather around. Hawk Channel is forecast east wind 10 to 15 knots, seas around 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The Straits are northeast to east 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, with northeast to east 3 feet at 4 seconds and west 1 foot at 7 seconds. Florida Bay is east 10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop and a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

So the Thursday plan does not need to get cute. Start on the reef, keep the chum honest, and let the sky make the outside decision for you. Davis and Crocker are still the practical Islamorada plays. Alligator gets the best all-around look if the current lines up. Molasses gets the outside temptation because the Gulf Stream edge is still listed 2 NM southeast of the light, but the ocean has to show life before it earns the fuel.

Evening source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:27 PM EDT Wednesday, July 22, 2026.