Captain's log, July 23, 2026, east breeze, 2 to 3 foot reef seas, stormy tonight

Thursday, July 23. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:17 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line has a fishable summer chop with more weather in the forecast than I would ignore.

The setup is a weak easterly wave moving across the Keys waters today. NOAA expects mostly gentle to moderate breezes, with showers and thunderstorms increasing today and peaking overnight into early Friday. That is the part that matters. The sea state is workable. The sky gets a vote.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the west end of Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots today. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. That covers the reef run from Molasses down through Tennessee. It is not a glassy family postcard morning, but it is honest reef weather if the crew can handle some bounce.

The Straits are close to the same. NOAA has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, with northeast to east 3 feet at 4 seconds and a west 1 foot wave at 7 seconds. That short period keeps the ride a little busy.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay was reading 88.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is still hot water before the sun gets serious, even after the last few breezy days.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to northeast-east 10 to 15 knots
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet, light to moderate chop
Straits	2 to 3 feet, northeast to east 3 feet at 4 seconds
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms today, showers likely tonight
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	fair reef day, cautious offshore look, poor midday flats heat

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is workable, but it is not soft. East wind at 10 to 15 knots with 2 to 3 foot seas means the ride will have some chatter, especially on the longer runs.

For most crews, Davis, Crocker, and Alligator are the better first calls. Molasses is in play if you are starting up the road or want to keep an eye on the close Gulf Stream edge. Tennessee is still fishable, but I would not run past good bottom just to say I ran farther.

The anchor setup matters today. With the breeze pushing and short chop on the reef, get the boat sitting right before you start burning chum. A sloppy angle makes a good spot fish like a bad one.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable on paper, but not automatic. Two to 3 feet at 4 seconds is a working sea, not a lazy trolling sea. You can go, but the water needs to show a reason.

NOAA places the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 17. That puts blue water close to the upper reef line. Close is useful. Close is not a guarantee.

If there are birds, flyers, weed, bait, or a clean color edge, the mahi and blackfin look gets better. If it is empty water with a short chop on top, stay on the reef and put dinner in the box.

florida bay

Florida Bay is calmer than the ocean side, but it is hot. NOAA has northeast to east wind near 10 knots this morning, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters go from light chop to light to moderate chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Vaca Key water temperature at 88.7 F before 6 AM says the flats need help. Moving water helps. Cloud cover helps. Low light helps most of all.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still be caught in July, but the middle of the day is the rough shift. If you are hunting shallow, make the early window count.

tides for thursday, july 23

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the closest verified NOAA tide station for the Islamorada bay side.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	12:41 AM EDT	0.23 ft	overnight low
High	6:05 AM EDT	0.62 ft	early high
Low	2:53 PM EDT	0.06 ft	afternoon low
High	8:35 PM EDT	0.30 ft	evening high

That long fall from the 6:05 AM high toward the 2:53 PM low is the tide window I would build around. On the reef, watch the current before you marry a spot. If the chum slick is pulling right, give it time. If it lays under the boat or slides wrong, move.

The bay side has the same problem it usually has in late July. The water can move and still be hot. Early water gets the nod. The afternoon low may stage fish around drains, edges, and deeper cuts, but the heat will not make anything easier.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the best outside-water note because NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough to keep one eye outside the reef.

For the reef itself, yellowtail are fair to good in 45 to 70 feet if the current pulls clean. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and active slicks.

Do not turn this into a long offshore day unless the water talks. Molasses gives you the option to look outside without losing the reef plan.

conch reef

Conch should fish fair in this breeze. The east wind puts enough chop on the line that anchoring clean matters, but the bottom is worth it if the current behaves.

Yellowtail are the main target. Mangrove snapper are fair around harder structure, especially if the water has a little stain or the light stays down under cloud cover. A mutton bait on the edge is worth soaking while the tide is moving.

If the slick will not stretch, do not sit there waiting on a miracle. Slide until the chum starts doing work.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half-day call. Shorter run, enough protection from making the day too sporty, and plenty of bottom for yellowtail and mangroves.

The yellowtail bite should be fair to good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair on ledges. Cero mackerel are possible if bait stacks up and the slick gets life in it.

For families or first-timers, Davis makes sense today. You still get reef fishing without making the crew earn every mile.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good working grade. The sea state is manageable, and the falling tide should give the chum line a useful stretch if the current lines up with the wind.

Look from 50 to 80 feet depending on how the boat sits. Yellowtail are the first bet. Muttons are fair on deeper pieces, especially with a fresh bait pinned near the bottom.

This is one of those days where a reset can save the stop. If the boat is wrong, fix it early.

alligator reef

Alligator is in play, with a little outside upside. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so there may be cleaner water close enough to check if birds or bait give it away.

The reef should still be the first plan. Yellowtail are fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Mangroves are fair when the light is lower or the current has enough push to make them comfortable.

The tower pieces can get crowded. Fish the less obvious bottom if everybody is piled on the same marks.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is a fair to good option if you are already leaning west or want more room. The ride will have some chop, but the forecast is not keeping a reef boat tied up by itself.

Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are fair to good from 40 to 70 feet. A mutton bait deserves time while the water is falling. If the afternoon low slows the current down, be ready to adjust instead of soaking dead water.

The evening rise after 8:35 PM is more of a late-day note than a normal charter window, but it should wake up some edge pieces if the weather stays clear enough.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. The reef is fishable, the falling tide gives a decent window, and the water is not too rough for a proper chum setup. Go light enough to get bites, but do not get silly if the fish are eating.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee all deserve a bait while the current is moving.

Mangrove snapper are fair in the summer pattern. Low light, structure, and a little dirty water help. They are not usually impressed by bright sun and lazy current.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait. Keep wire close, but do not let wire rigs take over the spread if the yellowtail are being picky.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore. The Gulf Stream is close near Molasses and Alligator, but today is not a blind-run forecast. Look for weed, flyers, birds, bait, or a clean edge before committing.

Blackfin tuna are fair early around deeper current edges and bait. It is worth a look if you are already outside, not the reason I would leave biting reef fish.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are poor to fair after the sun gets high. Vaca Key at 88.7 F before breakfast is enough warning. Early, late, moving tide, and shade where you can get it.

the call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the easy half-day answer. Crocker and Alligator are the better snapper plays if the crew can take the ride. Molasses gets the Gulf Stream check if the water outside looks alive.

Keep the weather honest. NOAA has showers and thunderstorms increasing today and peaking tonight into early Friday. Seas and wind are manageable. Thunderstorms are not.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:17 AM EDT July 23, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970.

midday addendum, 10:27 AM NOAA update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:27 AM EDT. No big course change from the morning package, but the day has narrowed into a pretty clear read.

Hawk Channel is still east wind 10 to 15 knots this afternoon with 2 to 3 foot seas and a light to moderate chop. Tonight, NOAA now has northeast to east wind 10 to 15 knots with seas around 2 feet. That is a touch better on the sea height than the morning concern, but it is still not a night to ignore the sky.

The Straits did not get any kinder. NOAA kept northeast to east wind 10 to 15 knots this afternoon and tonight, with seas 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail this afternoon is northeast to east 3 feet at 4 seconds with a west 1 foot wave at 7 seconds. Tonight it stretches a hair to northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds, with the same west 1 foot wave at 7 seconds. That is still short-period water.

Florida Bay stayed close to the morning read too. Northeast to east wind near 10 knots increases to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, with bay waters going from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. Tonight it drops back near 10 knots after starting 10 to 15, with bay waters becoming a light chop.

The fishing call stays the same. Reef first, offshore only if the water shows you a reason, and keep a hard eye on showers and thunderstorms. NOAA still has storms increasing today and peaking tonight into early Friday. Winds and seas can jump fast in and around those cells.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:27 AM EDT July 23, 2026.

evening addendum, 4:22 PM EDT NOAA update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:22 PM EDT, and the evening package kept the same basic read with one thing worth underlining. The ocean side is still fishable by the numbers, but the weather window is not clean overnight.

The weak easterly wave is still moving through the Keys waters and should exit sometime Friday. NOAA expects showers and thunderstorms to peak tonight into early Friday. That matches the way the day was setting up. The reef was the sensible place to work this afternoon, with enough east breeze to keep the water honest and enough sky around to make a long offshore gamble feel like borrowed trouble.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the west end of Seven Mile Bridge is northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, and showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Winds and seas can run higher around storms, so that little 2 foot number does not mean much under a cell.

The Straits stay short and busy. NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots tonight, seas 2 to 3 feet, with wave detail northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds and west 1 foot at 7 seconds. That is still a working sea. If the outside water showed birds, bait, weed, or a sharp color edge this afternoon, it earned a look. If it did not, the reef was the better decision.

Florida Bay is northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots tonight with a light to moderate chop and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. That is not terrible bay weather, but it is not lazy either. The hot water is still part of the story, especially after Vaca Key was already 88.7 F before 6 AM.

Friday looks a little softer on wind but not dry. Hawk Channel is forecast east to southeast near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and a light chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The Straits are east to southeast near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, with seas around 2 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 5 seconds and west 1 foot at 7 seconds. Florida Bay is east to southeast near 10 knots with a light chop and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

So tomorrow’s plan is pretty plain. Let the morning storms clear or show their hand, then fish the reef if the current gives you anything to work with. Davis stays the easy half-day answer. Crocker and Alligator get the better snapper look. Molasses still has the Gulf Stream edge close, listed 2 NM southeast of the light as of July 17, but it only deserves fuel if the water is alive.

Evening source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:22 PM EDT Thursday, July 23, 2026.