Captain's log, July 24, 2026, softer reef wind, morning storms, hot bay water

Friday, July 24. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:18 AM EDT, and the main story is a wet morning easing into a more workable reef day.

An easterly wave is moving through the Keys this morning. That is bringing more showers and thunderstorms early, then the breeze is forecast to soften by afternoon and evening. So the ocean is not a hard no. But the sky gets watched close until the morning weather clears out.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the west end of Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east winds 10 to 15 knots early, becoming east to southeast near 10 knots. Seas start 2 to 3 feet and subside to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop to a light chop.

That covers the reef line from Molasses down through Tennessee. It is a decent reef setup once the morning cells move on, especially for crews who do not need to prove anything offshore.

The Straits are rougher early. NOAA has east winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast near 10 knots, with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds, with a west 1 foot wave at 7 seconds. That short period makes the outside ride busier than the reef number.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay was reading 88.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before breakfast. It does not kill the fishing by itself, but it does make timing matter.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east 10 to 15 knots early, east to southeast near 10 knots later
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Straits	3 to 4 feet, occasionally 5, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly this morning
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef window after the morning weather, fair offshore only if it cleans up

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the better side of the day. The early 10 to 15 knot east wind will still put some chop on the reef, but NOAA has it easing near 10 knots and seas dropping into the 1 to 2 foot range.

That is fishable water for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee. The catch is the morning weather. Thunderstorms can make a clean forecast dirty in a hurry, so do not judge the whole day from the first squall line.

Once the cells clear, the reef should set up well enough for yellowtail, mangroves, and a mutton bait on the deeper edge. The boat still needs to sit right. A softening breeze does not fix lazy current.

straits of florida

The Straits need a better reason than “it is July and mahi exist.”

NOAA has seas 3 to 4 feet early, occasionally to 5 feet, with an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is not dangerous by itself for the right boat, but it is short, busy water. Later, the Straits are forecast to settle to 2 to 3 feet, which makes the outside look more reasonable if the weather has opened up.

NOAA places the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 17. That keeps the blue water close to the upper reef line. Close water is useful. It is not a promise.

If there are birds, flyers, weed, bait, or a clean edge, take the shot. If it is just gray water with leftover morning chop, the reef is the smarter box-filling plan.

florida bay

Florida Bay has east to southeast winds near 10 knots today and a light chop. The water temperature is the harder part of that report. Vaca Key was 88.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT, and that is before the sun does its worst.

Flats fishing should be treated like a timing game. Early light, moving water, and cloud cover are the friends. Midday slack water is where good plans go to sweat.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still in the mix, but I would rather take a sharp early window than grind hot water just because the calendar says summer.

tides for friday, july 24

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay is the closest verified NOAA tide station for the Islamorada bay side.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	1:32 AM EDT	0.24 ft	overnight low
High	7:02 AM EDT	0.62 ft	morning high
Low	3:54 PM EDT	0.03 ft	afternoon low
High	9:41 PM EDT	0.30 ft	evening high

The useful daytime movement is the fall from the 7:02 AM high toward the 3:54 PM low. That is a long outgoing tide, and on the reef it should give the chum line time to work if the current angle lines up with the wind.

For the bay side, the same falling water can help around drains, banks, and edges. The heat is the tax. Fish it early or fish it with a purpose.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the best outside-water note because the Gulf Stream edge is listed 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough to keep an eye outside the reef if the weather clears and the water shows life.

On the reef, yellowtail snapper should be fair to good in 45 to 70 feet with clean current. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gathers in the slick.

Do not let the close Gulf Stream trick you into burning the whole morning in lumpy water. Start with the reef. Earn the outside look.

conch reef

Conch should fish well enough once the morning showers ease. The wind direction is fine for a normal reef setup, and the later 1 to 2 foot Hawk Channel sea is a friendly number.

Yellowtail are the main play in 45 to 70 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure, especially if cloud cover keeps the light down. A mutton bait on the edge is worth soaking while the tide falls.

If the chum slick stretches clean, stay with it. If it hangs under the boat or gets shoved sideways, move before the crew starts staring at the bait bucket.

davis reef

Davis is the easy half-day call. Short run, plenty of bottom, and enough protection that the day does not become a contest.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair around ledges and harder pieces. Cero mackerel are possible if bait is active and the water has a little bite to it.

For families, kids, or anyone who does not need the hero ride, Davis makes sense today. Fish smart after the weather passes and put dinner in the box.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good working grade. The forecast is settling, the outgoing tide has room to run, and there is enough depth range to adjust if the current is not right on the first stop.

Look from 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the first bet. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper pieces with a fresh bait near bottom.

This is one of those days where ten minutes spent fixing the boat angle can save the whole stop. Get the slick right before blaming the fish.

alligator reef

Alligator is in play, with a little outside upside. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so a clean color edge may be close enough to inspect if the sky settles down.

The reef plan is still the first plan. Yellowtail are fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Mangroves are fair when the light stays lower or the current gives them cover.

The obvious pieces can get busy. If everybody is stacked on the tower line, fish the less obvious bottom and let the chum do the talking.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should be fair to good if you are already leaning west or want room away from the busier Islamorada marks. The early ocean may have some leftover chop, but the reef forecast improves through the day.

Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are fair to good in 40 to 70 feet. A mutton bait deserves time during the outgoing water. If the current quits near the afternoon low, do not soak dead water just because the spot has a good name.

The evening rise after 9:41 PM is mostly a late-day note, but it may wake up some edge pieces if the weather stays quiet enough.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. The reef is fishable, the wind is easing, and the outgoing tide gives the chum line a real window. Go light enough to get bites, but do not get cute if the current is running and the fish are sharp.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee all deserve a bait while the tide is moving.

Mangrove snapper are fair in the summer pattern. Low light helps. Structure helps. A little stain in the water can help too, especially after a stormy morning.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait. Keep a wire option ready, but do not let it take over if the yellowtail are line shy.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore after the Straits settle, not before. The Gulf Stream is close near Molasses and Alligator, but the early sea state is not a blind-run invitation. Find birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a clean edge.

Blackfin tuna are fair early around deeper current edges and bait. Worth a look if you are already outside. Not worth leaving a good reef bite for empty water.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are poor to fair once the sun is high. Vaca Key at 88.7 F before 6 AM says enough. Early, late, moving tide. That is the play.

the call

Wait out the morning weather if it is sitting on the reef line. Then fish the reef.

Davis is the practical half-day answer. Crocker and Alligator get the better snapper look if the crew can handle a little ride. Molasses has the close Gulf Stream edge, but it only deserves an offshore poke if the water is alive. Tennessee is a good room-to-work option when the current lines up.

NOAA has the breeze easing and the seas improving through the day. That is good news. Still, thunderstorms get the final vote, and winds and seas run higher around them.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:30 AM EDT, and the main call has not changed much. The easterly wave is still the reason for the weather, but the storm wording is now focused mainly through early afternoon instead of just a broad morning problem.

Hawk Channel is still the better side of the day. NOAA keeps east wind near 10 knots, becoming east to southeast, with seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. That is basically the morning forecast holding steady, with the same caution that winds and seas run higher near storms.

The Straits did not get worse on paper. NOAA still has east wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast near 10 knots, with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail remains east 3 feet at 5 seconds and west 1 foot at 7 seconds. So if you are going outside, it still needs to be for a real sign, not just hope.

Florida Bay is steady too. East to southeast wind near 10 knots, bay waters a light chop, and rougher water around thunderstorms. The afternoon low at Upper Matecumbe is still 3:54 PM EDT, so the last part of that outgoing tide is the useful window if the sky gives you room.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the 4:15 PM EDT coastal waters forecast, and the day is ending softer than it started. The easterly wave that made the morning twitchy has moved through, and NOAA now has a weak pressure setup over the Keys tonight into Saturday. That means a short stretch of light, sometimes variable wind before the breeze turns more west and northwest later in the weekend.

afternoon recap

The right move today was patience. Morning storms made the first half of the day a watch-the-sky deal, then the reef became the better working water as the breeze eased. That lined up with the morning call.

For tonight in Hawk Channel, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots, becoming southeast late. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters a light chop. There is still a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, so nobody gets to ignore the radar just because the wind number looks friendly.

The Straits are also easing. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots tonight, with seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to around 2 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 5 seconds and west 1 foot at 7 seconds. That is a cleaner number than this morning, but it is still July offshore water. Run for sign, not for a daydream.

Florida Bay is laying down the most. East to southeast wind near 10 knots decreases to 5 to 10 knots tonight, and bay waters go from a light chop to smooth to a light chop. Showers remain possible, with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

saturday outlook

Saturday looks workable. Hawk Channel gets southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest to west near 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas are around 1 foot, and nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop to smooth. That is good family reef weather if the storms stay scattered.

The Straits get southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and west 1 foot at 7 seconds. That is enough to make a mahi look reasonable if the water gives you birds, weed, bait, or a hard color edge.

For the bay, NOAA has southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots Saturday, becoming southwest to west near 5 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming smooth. Flats and backcountry crews still need to beat the heat, but the wind is not the problem.

My call for Saturday is reef first, with an outside look only if the signs are real. Yellowtail and mangroves should be the practical play on the reef. Muttons get a bait on the edge while the water moves. Mahi are fair outside, better if the Gulf Stream edge near Molasses and Alligator is holding life.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:18 AM EDT July 24, 2026, with midday update from the 10:30 AM EDT issuance and evening update from the 4:15 PM EDT issuance. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970.