Captain's log, July 25, 2026, light reef wind, close Gulf Stream, hot bay water

Saturday, July 25. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:17 AM EDT, and the short version is simple enough. The ocean gets lighter today.

A weak pressure setup is sitting over the Keys, what NOAA calls a col, and that gives us a brief run of light and variable wind through this evening. That is good news for the reef. It is also July, so the radar still gets watched. Light wind does not mean dry sky.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the west end of Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming variable near 5 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop to smooth.

That is the kind of reef forecast we like to see for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee. Not fancy. Just fishable.

The Straits are also workable. NOAA has southeast wind near 10 knots early, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds, with a west 1 foot wave at 7 seconds.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay was reading 89.6 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is very warm water before the sun gets high. Reef crews should be fine if the current moves. Flats crews need to treat the heat like part of the plan.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable near 5 knots in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	1 to 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot
Straits	around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.6 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore if the signs are real

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest call today. East to southeast wind starts 5 to 10 knots, then turns variable near 5 knots. Seas drop from 1 to 2 feet to around 1 foot.

That opens up the reef line without making the boat work too hard. Molasses through Tennessee should all be in play, and the better stops will be the ones with clean moving water. When the breeze goes light, boat angle can get weird. Fix that before blaming the fish.

Yellowtail snapper should be the main meat play in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure, especially with low light or a little stain. Mutton snapper deserve a bait on the deeper side while the tide is still moving.

straits of florida

The Straits look reasonable on paper, but I would still want a reason to go. NOAA has southeast wind near 10 knots early, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, then 1 to 2 feet.

The wave detail is not bad. East to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds, plus a west 1 foot wave at 7 seconds. That is fishable for the right crew. It is not a promise that the bluewater bite is worth passing a good reef stop.

NOAA places the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 17. That puts the edge close to the upper Keys reef line. If birds, flyers, bait, weed, or a clean color break are showing, the outside look is fair. If not, do not turn a good snapper day into a fuel bill.

florida bay

Florida Bay is light today. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots early, becoming southeast to south near 5 knots. Bay waters go from smooth to a light chop to smooth.

The problem is the water temperature. Vaca Key, Florida Bay was 89.6 F at 5:54 AM EDT, and that is not a midday reading. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still possible, but the best shot is early, on moving water, before the flats bake.

If you are fishing the bay, keep the plan sharp. Long dead-water drifts in July heat do not make anyone look smart.

tides for saturday, july 25

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay is the closest verified NOAA tide station for the Islamorada bay side.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	2:26 AM EDT	0.25 ft	overnight low
High	7:57 AM EDT	0.63 ft	morning high
Low	4:46 PM EDT	0.01 ft	afternoon low
High	10:24 PM EDT	0.32 ft	late high

The main daytime water is the outgoing tide from the 7:57 AM high toward the 4:46 PM low. That is a long fall. On the reef, it gives the chum line time to settle if the current has enough push.

The late incoming after 4:46 PM is worth noting for bay edges and any evening reef work, but the afternoon heat will still be part of the deal.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses has the best outside-water note today because NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close. Close does not mean automatic, but it does mean you can keep one eye outside if the reef bite is slow and the water shows life.

The reef itself should be good for yellowtail in 45 to 70 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge if the current keeps moving.

If the slick lays clean, stay with it. If the boat swings all over in the light wind, reset.

conch reef

Conch should fish well in the light forecast. Seas near 1 foot later in the day make it a good reef choice for crews who want action without getting beat up.

Yellowtail are fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair near harder bottom. A mutton bait is worth soaking while the outgoing tide has shape.

The best bite should come when the current and chum line agree. When they do not, move. The reef is too calm today to waste time on a bad angle.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half-day call. Short run, good bottom, and friendly sea state. On a light-wind July day, that is a good place to put people on fish without turning the morning into a boat ride.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair around ledges. Cero mackerel are possible if bait stacks up in the slick.

For kids, families, and crews that just want dinner, Davis makes sense today.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good working grade. It has enough depth range to adjust if the current is too soft shallow or too touchy deep.

Start looking from 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the main target. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper pieces with fresh bait near bottom. Mangroves can show if the water has a little cover or the light stays low.

Light wind can make the boat lazy. Take the extra minute to get the anchor set right.

alligator reef

Alligator is a strong reef option today, with a fair outside look if the signs are there. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so the blue water is close enough to matter.

The reef plan is still first. Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. Mangroves are fair around structure when the current gives them cover.

If the obvious spots are crowded, slide off the parade. There is plenty of bottom that still fishes when the tower line looks like a parking lot.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should be fair to good, especially for anyone already leaning west or trying to stay away from the busier Islamorada marks.

Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are the practical targets in 40 to 70 feet. A mutton bait gets time during the outgoing tide. If the current quits near the afternoon low, do not sit there admiring the name of the spot.

The late incoming can help if the weather stays quiet and the heat starts to ease.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. The reef is calm enough, the outgoing tide is long, and the water should give the chum line a real chance. Use enough finesse to get bites, but do not go silly light if the sharks or bigger fish move in.

Mangrove snapper are fair. Summer fish like structure, cover, and low light. They should be better early or wherever the water has a little stain.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee all deserve a bait while the water is moving.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait schools. Keep a wire option handy, but do not let it ruin the yellowtail bite if the fish are picky.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore. The Gulf Stream is close near Molasses and Alligator, and the Straits are forecast to settle. Still, I would want birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a clean edge before running past a good reef setup.

Blackfin tuna are fair early around deeper current edges and bait. Worth a look if you are already outside. Not worth forcing if the water is empty.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are poor to fair after the sun gets high. Vaca Key at 89.6 F before 6 AM says plenty. Fish early, fish moving water, and do not camp on hot slack water.

the call

Fish the reef.

Molasses gets the close Gulf Stream edge. Davis is the easy half-day answer. Crocker and Alligator give you better depth options. Tennessee is good room-to-work water if you are willing to slide west.

The offshore look is fair, not mandatory. NOAA has light wind and settling seas, so if the water is alive, take a shot. If it is not, put the boat where the chum can work and make the reef pay.

midday update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:29 AM EDT, and the morning call is still holding. The wind has not jumped. If anything, the forecast leans harder into the light and variable setup for this afternoon.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA still has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming variable near 5 knots. Seas are still forecast to ease from 1 to 2 feet to around 1 foot, with nearshore waters becoming smooth. That is no worse than the morning read.

The Straits are also about the same. Southeast wind near 10 knots becomes variable 5 to 10 knots, with seas dropping from around 2 feet to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is still short and manageable, east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds with a west 1 foot wave at 7 seconds.

The one thing I would watch closer this afternoon is weather. Florida Bay now carries a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, and Hawk Channel and the Straits both keep at least a slight chance of showers and storms. NOAA also added better confidence in a more active pattern starting Sunday night. That does not wreck today, but it means the radar earns its keep.

So the midday call stays simple. Reef is still the best bet. Offshore is still fair if the water gives you a reason. If clouds stack up or the breeze goes squirrelly around a cell, move early and do not let a pretty forecast talk you into sitting under weather.

evening addendum, 4:26 pm noaa update

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:26 PM EDT, and the soft-water call held. The col over the Keys gave us the light and sometimes variable wind we were looking for. That made the reef the cleanest afternoon work, with the usual July warning still attached. When the wind quits, storms can build their own rules fast.

afternoon recap

This afternoon was a reef-first afternoon. The 4:46 PM low at Upper Matecumbe was the turn to watch, and the late rise after it gave bay edges and evening reef pieces another chance if the sky stayed polite.

Hawk Channel is laying down tonight. NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots becoming southwest, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth. That is about as friendly as the reef forecast gets in July. Still, NOAA keeps a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, so the radar does not get the night off.

The Straits cleaned up too. NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots tonight with seas around 1 foot. Wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds and west 1 foot at 6 seconds. That is small water, but it is not a blank check to run around in the dark under building weather.

Florida Bay is smooth tonight with southeast to south winds near 5 knots becoming southwest. NOAA carries a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms there as well. The wind is not the problem. The heat, slack water, and storms are the things that can make a good idea get sour.

sunday outlook

Sunday is still workable, just more unsettled. NOAA has the breeze backing west to northwest as a surface trough develops, with growing confidence in a more active weather pattern starting Sunday night.

For Hawk Channel, Sunday brings southwest to west winds near 5 knots, becoming west to northwest 5 to 10 knots. Seas stay around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth, then a light chop. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast, so fish the clean windows and do not get married to one piece of bottom.

The Straits look small on paper. NOAA has west to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail east 1 foot at 3 seconds. That makes an offshore look reasonable if the water is alive. I would still want birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a sharp color change before running past a good reef bite.

Florida Bay gets southwest to west winds near 5 knots Sunday, becoming west to northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters are smooth, then smooth to a light chop. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Fish early, fish moving water, and do not ask hot slack water to save the day.

My Sunday call is reef first again. Yellowtail are still the practical bet. Mangroves should be fair around structure if the light and current help. Muttons deserve a bait on the deeper edge. Offshore mahi are fair only if the ocean shows something real.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:17 AM EDT, updated 10:29 AM EDT, and updated again at 4:26 PM EDT July 25, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970.