Captain's log, July 26, 2026, light west turn, one foot reef seas, hot bay water

Sunday, July 26. NOAA Key West put the coastal waters forecast out at 4:21 AM EDT, and the reef read is small water with weather in the deal.

The morning starts light. South to southwest around 5 knots in Hawk Channel, then the breeze backs west to northwest and builds to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon as a surface trough develops. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to smooth with a light chop.

That is fishable water for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs. It is not a free pass to ignore the sky. NOAA is calling for a chance of showers and thunderstorms today, then showers likely tonight. The wind is not the problem. The cells are.

The Straits look small too. Variable wind near 5 knots becomes west to northwest 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas are around 1 foot, with an east 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. Offshore is possible if the water gives you a reason, but I would not run past a working reef bite just because the forecast is pretty.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay was already 90.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before breakfast. Flats crews need moving water and an early plan. Reef crews can still work, but the better bite should come where current keeps the bait and chum alive.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	south to southwest near 5 knots, becoming west to northwest 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth to a light chop
Straits	seas around 1 foot, east 1 foot at 3 seconds
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms today, showers likely tonight
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	3 NM southeast of Alligator, 1 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef water, fair offshore, poor hot slack bay water

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest fishing lane today. NOAA has south to southwest winds near 5 knots this morning, turning west to northwest and increasing to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas stay around 1 foot.

That puts the reef in play from Key Largo down through Islamorada and west toward Tennessee. A west turn can make some anchors sit different than they did yesterday, so do not get lazy with the setup. If the chum is running under the boat or the stern is hunting, fix the boat before blaming the bite.

Yellowtail snapper are the main table fish today in 45 to 75 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair where the structure has cover or the light stays low. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge while the tide is moving.

straits of florida

The Straits are friendly on paper. NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots, becoming west to northwest 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas are around 1 foot. Wave detail is east 1 foot at 3 seconds.

That is not much sea. The question is whether the water is alive enough to justify the run. NOAA places the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 26. That is close water. Close water still has to show bait, birds, weed, flyers, or a clean color edge before I get excited.

Mahi are fair if you find the signs. Blackfin tuna are fair around deeper current edges and bait, especially early. If the outside looks empty, turn around and make the reef pay.

florida bay

Florida Bay has small water and big heat. NOAA has south to southwest winds near 5 knots this morning, becoming southwest to west 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Bay waters are smooth, then smooth to a light chop.

Vaca Key at 90.7 F before 6 AM says enough. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are possible, but the best window is early and tied to moving water. The middle of the day is not where I would ask a flat to save the trip.

If you are fishing back there, keep it short and sharp. Hunt current, do not sit in dead water.

tides for sunday, july 26

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay is the closest verified NOAA tide station for the Islamorada bay side.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	3:21 AM EDT	0.24 ft	overnight low
High	8:47 AM EDT	0.66 ft	morning high
Low	5:29 PM EDT	-0.01 ft	afternoon low
High	10:56 PM EDT	0.34 ft	late high

The main daytime move is the outgoing tide from the 8:47 AM high toward the 5:29 PM low. That gives the reef a long falling tide to work with. If the current has enough push, the chum line should have time to settle and draw fish.

The late high at 10:56 PM matters more for night work and bay edges. For normal daytime fishing, the outgoing water is the piece to plan around.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the strongest outside-water note again today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 1 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough that a reef crew can keep one eye on the outside without turning the day into a gamble.

The reef itself should be good for yellowtail in 45 to 70 feet if the current lays right. Mangroves are fair around structure. Mutton snapper deserve a bait on the deeper side while the outgoing tide has shape.

If the water is clean and moving, stay patient. If the boat will not sit right in the west turn, reset early.

conch reef

Conch should fish well in today’s small sea state. Around 1 foot in Hawk Channel is comfortable water for a family reef trip, and the long outgoing tide gives the chum a chance.

Yellowtail are fair to good from 45 to 75 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair where the bottom has enough relief. A mutton bait is worth soaking, especially on the deeper edge when the current is not too soft.

Conch can punish sloppy anchoring in light wind. Get the slick right or move.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half-day call. Short run, plenty of fishable bottom, and not much sea. That is a good mix for kids, visitors, and crews who want dinner without a long ride.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair around ledges and broken bottom. Cero mackerel are possible if bait stacks up behind the boat.

I would start simple here. Chum, watch the current, and do not sit through dead water too long.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good working grade today because it gives you room to change depth without making a major move. If the shallower yellowtail bite is soft, slide deeper. If the deeper edge feels slow, come back inside while the tide still runs.

Yellowtail are the first target in 50 to 80 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper pieces with fresh bait near bottom. Mangroves can show if cloud cover or stain helps the bite.

The weather is the main watch item. Crocker is fishable, but a July cell can make any pretty forecast look dumb in a hurry.

alligator reef

Alligator is a good reef choice today and a fair outside look if the ocean gives you real signs. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. That puts blue water close enough to matter.

The reef plan still comes first. Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Mangroves are fair around structure if the current has enough bite.

If you see birds, flyers, bait, weed, or a sharp edge outside, take a look. If not, there is no shame in staying on the reef and filling the box the honest way.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should be fair to good for crews willing to slide west and work away from the more obvious Islamorada marks. Seas around 1 foot make the run easy enough, and the west to northwest afternoon breeze should stay manageable.

Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are the practical targets in 40 to 70 feet. A mutton bait should get time during the outgoing tide. Cero mackerel are fair if bait is present.

If the current quits close to the afternoon low, move or wait for the next push. Sitting still in July heat does not make the fish sentimental.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. The reef forecast is calm, the tide gives us a long outgoing run, and the water should be good enough where the current moves. Use light tackle if you need it, but keep enough backbone for sharks and bigger fish.

Mangrove snapper are fair. They should be better early, around structure, or anywhere the water has a little cover.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Tennessee all deserve a bait near bottom while the tide moves.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait schools. Keep a wire option ready, but do not let it ruin the yellowtail bite if the fish get picky.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore. The Gulf Stream is close off Molasses and Alligator, and the Straits are only around 1 foot. I still want signs before running. Birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a clean edge matter more than wishful thinking.

Blackfin tuna are fair early around deeper current and bait. Worth a look if you are already outside. Not worth forcing over a good reef bite.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are poor to fair after the sun gets high. Vaca Key at 90.7 F before 6 AM is the whole warning label. Fish early, fish moving water, and treat hot slack water like a bad bet.

the call

Fish the reef first.

Molasses and Alligator get the close Gulf Stream note. Davis is the easy half-day answer. Crocker gives you depth options. Tennessee gives you room to work.

Offshore is fair if the water shows life. The forecast is small enough for it, but the reef has the better odds today. Keep the radar up, use the outgoing tide, and do not let one July thunderstorm sneak up on a good day.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:39 AM EDT, and the main call did not change much on sea state. Hawk Channel still has south to southwest wind near 5 knots early, becoming west to northwest 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas stay around 1 foot, with nearshore waters smooth to a light chop.

The Straits are still small on paper too. Variable wind near 5 knots early, then west to northwest 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas around 1 foot. Wave detail remains east 1 foot at 3 seconds. That keeps the outside fishable, but it does not erase the weather.

The bigger change is confidence in the wet pattern. NOAA now says pop up showers and thunderstorms will crawl across the local waters, and there is growing confidence in a more active weather pattern starting tonight. Hawk Channel has showers likely tonight with a chance of thunderstorms, then showers likely again Monday.

So the midday adjustment is simple. The reef is still the better bet, but keep the day tight and keep watching the sky. If the west to northwest turn makes the anchor sit wrong, reset. If storms start building, do not try to win an argument with July weather.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West pushed the 4:19 PM EDT coastal waters forecast, and the afternoon read held close to what we watched all day. The wind stayed light enough to work with, but the weather stayed in the conversation.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the Keys is west to northwest 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot and nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop. Showers are likely, with a chance of thunderstorms. The Straits are still around 1 foot, with variable wind 5 to 10 knots early becoming west to northwest. NOAA lists a northwest 1 foot wave at 2 seconds and an east 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

That is small water, not sleepy water. Any crew running late or moving around after dark needs to respect the cells. The roughest water will be in and near the strongest showers and storms, and that is the part that can change faster than the base forecast.

tomorrow’s outlook

Monday looks fishable if the sky behaves. Hawk Channel is west to northwest 5 to 10 knots with seas around 1 foot and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. NOAA is still calling showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

The Straits are workable too. West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and wave detail west to northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. That keeps the outside open for a look, but I would still make the reef earn the first shot.

Molasses and Alligator stay interesting because the Gulf Stream edge is close, listed today at 1 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light and 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. If the morning shows birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a clean edge, take the look. If it is empty, yellowtail, mangroves, and a mutton bait on the reef are the smarter grind.

Florida Bay gets west winds 5 to 10 knots Monday, with bay waters smooth to a light chop. The water temperature problem does not go away overnight. Fish early, fish moving water, and do not expect hot slack water to do you any favors.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:21 AM EDT, updated 10:39 AM EDT, and updated 4:19 PM EDT July 26, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970.