Captain's log, July 27, 2026, west wind, one foot reef seas, hot bay water

Monday, July 27. NOAA Key West put the coastal waters forecast out at 4:27 AM EDT, and the Islamorada read is fishable, but not sleepy.

West to northwest wind is the main shape of the day. Hawk Channel is 5 to 10 knots with seas around 1 foot and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are 5 to 10 knots too, with seas 1 to 2 feet and a northwest 1 foot wave at 2 seconds.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. The caution is weather. NOAA has showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms today, and they are calling for winds and seas higher in and around that weather. The base forecast is easy enough. The cells are the part you respect.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay was 90.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before most folks have finished coffee. Reef crews can still work if the current is moving. Flats and bay crews need to make the early window count, because hot slack water is a tough customer.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	west to northwest 5 to 10 knots
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth to a light chop
Straits	seas 1 to 2 feet, northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds
Rain	showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	3 NM southeast of Alligator, 1 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef water, fair offshore, poor hot slack bay water

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the best working lane today. NOAA has west to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop.

That is a good reef forecast for the Upper Keys and Islamorada stretch. It should be comfortable enough for half-day reef trips, family groups, and crews looking for dinner without getting beat up. But with west wind, the boat may not sit the way it does on a clean easterly. If the chum line is running wrong, fix the setup early.

The reef bite should favor yellowtail snapper in 45 to 75 feet while the water moves. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure, especially if cloud cover hangs around. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper pieces where the current keeps baits honest.

straits of florida

The Straits are open on paper. West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and a short northwest 1 foot wave at 2 seconds. That is small water, not a reason by itself to burn fuel.

NOAA lists the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream as of July 26 at 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough to make an outside look tempting. Still, the fish have to show you something. Birds, flyers, bait, weed, color change, or a hard current edge. Without those, the reef is the smarter first bet.

Mahi are fair if you find the right signs. Blackfin tuna are fair early around bait and current. If the outside looks empty, do not make it complicated. Turn back in and make the reef pay.

florida bay

Florida Bay has smooth to light chop water under west to northwest wind, but the temperature is the warning label. Vaca Key, Florida Bay read 90.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still possible, but the best chances are early and tied to moving water. Once the sun gets high and the tide drags through hot shallows, the bite can get stubborn fast.

If you are fishing the bay side, keep the plan sharp. Fish current, shade, deeper cuts, and edges with life on them. Do not sit on dead water hoping it gets friendly.

tides for monday, july 27

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay is the closest verified NOAA tide station for the Islamorada bay side.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	4:11 AM EDT	0.24 ft	early low
High	9:33 AM EDT	0.68 ft	morning high
Low	6:05 PM EDT	-0.02 ft	long afternoon fall
High	11:23 PM EDT	0.37 ft	late high

The main daytime move is the outgoing tide from the 9:33 AM high toward the 6:05 PM low. That gives the reef a long falling tide to work with. If the current has enough push, the chum line should settle in and pull fish from down-current structure.

The late high at 11:23 PM matters more for night work and bay edges. For most daytime reef crews, the outgoing water is the piece to plan around.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the best outside-water note today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 1 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That does not guarantee fish, but it means clean water and current are close enough to matter.

The reef should be good for yellowtail snapper in 45 to 70 feet if the current lines up. Mangroves are fair around ledges and heavier structure. A mutton bait belongs on the deeper side while the falling tide has shape.

Keep one eye outside. If you see birds, bait, flyers, weed, or a sharp edge, take a look. If not, stay on the reef and let the slick do its job.

conch reef

Conch should fish well in today’s small sea state. Around 1 foot in Hawk Channel makes this a clean reef option, especially for crews who want steady action without a long ride.

Yellowtail are fair to good from 45 to 75 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair near structure. Mutton snapper are worth a bait near bottom when the outgoing tide has enough push.

The west wind can make anchoring a little fussy. Set the boat right, watch the angle of the slick, and do not donate half the morning to a bad setup.

davis reef

Davis is the easy half-day answer. Short run, workable water, and enough bottom to adjust if the first stop is quiet.

Yellowtail should be fair in 40 to 60 feet, with a better bite where the current is steady. Mangroves are fair around broken bottom. Cero mackerel are possible if bait stacks up behind the boat.

This is a good day to keep the program simple. Chum clean, fish light enough to get bites, and move if the water feels dead.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good grade because it gives you room to slide depths without turning the day into a big move. If the shallower yellowtail bite is soft, go deeper. If the deeper edge is too slow, come back inside while the tide still runs.

Yellowtail are the first target in 50 to 80 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper pieces with fresh bait near bottom. Mangroves can show better if cloud cover keeps the light down.

The weather is the watch item. Small seas make Crocker fishable, but July storms can change the ride home in a hurry.

alligator reef

Alligator is a good reef call and a fair outside look. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, close enough that the edge can influence the reef water.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Mangroves are fair around structure if the current has enough bite.

If the outside shows life, go look. If it does not, there is nothing wrong with staying put and grinding out the reef bite.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should be fair to good for crews sliding west and working away from the obvious Islamorada stops. Seas around 1 foot keep the run easy enough, and west to northwest 5 to 10 knots should stay manageable.

Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are the practical targets in 40 to 70 feet. A mutton bait should get time on the deeper side during the outgoing tide. Cero mackerel are fair if bait is present.

If the current quits near the afternoon low, do not keep feeding the same dead water. Move, reset, or wait for the next little push.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. The reef forecast is small, the outgoing tide is long, and the current should give the chum line enough shape if it does not go slack.

Mangrove snapper are fair. They should be better early, around structure, or under any cloud cover that keeps the water from getting too bright.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Molasses, Conch, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all deserve a bait near bottom while the tide moves.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait. Keep a wire option ready, but do not wreck a picky yellowtail bite by making everything too heavy.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore. The Straits are only 1 to 2 feet and the Gulf Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator, but signs still matter. No birds, no weed, no bait, no reason to force it.

Blackfin tuna are fair early around deeper current edges and bait. Worth a look if you are already outside. Not worth choosing over a good reef bite.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are poor to fair once the day heats up. Vaca Key at 90.9 F before 6 AM says enough. Fish early and fish moving water.

the call

Fish the reef first.

Molasses gets the strongest close-current note. Alligator is right behind it. Conch and Davis are good practical calls. Crocker gives you depth options. Tennessee gives you room to work.

Offshore is fair if the water shows life, but the reef has the better odds today. Keep the radar up, use the outgoing tide, and do not let a small sea forecast talk you into ignoring July weather.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:33 AM EDT. No big ugly turn showed up, which is the good news.

The morning forecast had west to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. The midday package still has that same light west to northwest flow for Hawk Channel and the Straits this afternoon. Florida Bay gets a little more bend in it, starting west to northwest 5 to 10 knots and becoming southwest to west.

Seas did not build in the update. Hawk Channel stays around 1 foot with nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits stay 1 to 2 feet, with a northwest 1 foot wave at 2 seconds.

The part that did not improve is the weather around the small water. Showers are still likely with a chance of thunderstorms, and NOAA is still calling for higher winds and seas in and around those cells. That is the same July deal as this morning. Good reef water between the weather, not a pass to quit watching the sky.

Tuesday has a little more push in it. NOAA has southwest to west wind building toward 10 to 15 knots, with the Straits building from 1 to 2 feet to 2 to 3 feet. Today is still the cleaner window if you are picking between the two.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:27 AM EDT and updated 10:33 AM EDT July 27, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970.

evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:55 PM EDT, and the bones of the day stayed about where we expected. Light west flow, small water, and the same July storm problem hanging around the edges.

For tonight, Hawk Channel has west winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest to west. Seas are around 1 foot, with nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are southwest to west 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and a west 1 foot wave at 2 seconds.

That makes the evening recap pretty simple. The reef was still the right call on paper. Small seas let crews work Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee without taking a beating, but any shower or thunderstorm could still make a mess in a hurry. NOAA kept the warning plain: winds stronger and seas higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

The bay side stayed smooth to a light chop tonight, but hot water is still hot water. If you had moving tide and shade, you had a shot. If you sat in dead, warm water, you probably learned something the hard way.

tomorrow outlook

Tuesday is fishable, but it has more shove than today.

Florida Bay starts southwest to west near 10 knots, then increases to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters go from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. Hawk Channel runs southwest to west near 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet and nearshore waters building from a light chop to a light to moderate chop.

The Straits need the most respect tomorrow. NOAA has southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas start 1 to 2 feet and build to 2 to 3 feet, with a west 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

So the Tuesday plan is reef first again, especially for half-day crews and family trips. Start clean, watch the sky, and do not waste the morning waiting for offshore signs that are not there. If the outside has birds, bait, flyers, weed, or a hard edge, take the look. If not, the reef has the better odds.

Yellowtail snapper stay the best meat target. Mangroves are fair around structure, and muttons deserve a bait on the deeper edge while the current has shape. Mahi are possible offshore if the water gives you something real to work with, but tomorrow’s building west breeze makes the reef plan feel smarter.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:55 PM EDT July 27, 2026.