Captain's log, July 28, 2026, west breeze, small reef seas, hot bay water

Tuesday, July 28. NOAA Key West put the coastal waters forecast out at 4:26 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets a workable day with one catch. The base forecast is fine. The afternoon wind bump and summer storms are the part you do not ignore.

For the Upper Keys reef line, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key has southwest to west wind near 10 knots, increasing briefly to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Seas are around 1 foot, building to around 2 feet, and nearshore waters go from a light chop to choppy. Small craft should exercise caution there for the increasing wind.

From Craig Key down toward the west end of Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA is a notch easier. Southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Seas around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. That covers the Islamorada to Lower Matecumbe stretch well enough for reef work if the weather behaves.

The Straits are fishable, but they are not flat everywhere. Ocean Reef to Craig Key is near 10 knots early, briefly 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon, with seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet. Craig Key westward is 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet. If you are looking offshore, earn it with signs. Birds, bait, weed, color, or a proper edge.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay was 89.2 F at 5:24 AM EDT. That is hot before the day even gets mean. Bay and flats fishing can still happen, but the cleanest shot is early, on moving water, with no wasted time.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southwest to west, 5 to 10 knots early, 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, briefly 15 to 20 knots north of Craig Key
Hawk Channel	around 1 foot building to around 2 feet north of Craig Key, 1 to 2 feet farther west
Straits	1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet north of Craig Key
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms today
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.2 F at 5:24 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 1 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef window early, fair offshore, tough hot bay water after the morning tide

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the working lane today, but the upper end gets sporty later. Molasses, Conch, and Davis sit closer to the Ocean Reef to Craig Key zone, where NOAA has the caution flag up for increasing winds. Ten knots early is friendly. Fifteen to twenty for a stretch this afternoon makes anchoring and chum-line control a different job.

Down around Alligator and Tennessee, the forecast reads a little easier with 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots, and seas building from around 1 foot to 1 to 2 feet. That is still a fishable reef forecast.

The reef bite should be best while the water moves. Yellowtail snapper are the cleanest bet in 45 to 75 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Mutton snapper deserve a bait on the deeper edge, especially when the outgoing tide gets some shape.

straits of florida

The Straits are worth a look if the water shows you something. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge close, 1 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light and 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of July 26. That puts blue water and current near the reef line.

Still, close does not mean automatic. North of Craig Key, the Straits build to 2 to 3 feet this afternoon, and the wave detail is southwest to west 2 feet at 3 seconds. That is short water. If you have a good edge, birds, or bait, go make a pass. If it looks empty, do not burn the day proving it.

Mahi mahi are fair on the outside. Blackfin tuna are fair early around current and bait. The best offshore shot is before the afternoon breeze gets too bossy.

florida bay

Florida Bay has a chance of showers and thunderstorms with southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots, increasing near 15 knots this afternoon. Bay waters go from light to moderate chop to moderate chop.

The water temperature is the main problem. Vaca Key read 89.2 F at 5:24 AM EDT. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still feed in that heat, but they do not give you much room for sloppy timing. Fish the moving water. Fish edges with life. If the flat looks dead and hot, it probably is.

tides for tuesday, july 28

NOAA Whale Harbor Channel, Islamorada is the tide station for this report. Times are local EDT and heights are in feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	3:09 AM	0.32 ft	early low
High	8:42 AM	1.29 ft	morning high
Low	3:21 PM	0.03 ft	afternoon low
High	9:21 PM	1.41 ft	night high

The main daytime move is the outgoing tide after the 8:42 AM high. That should help the reef if the current runs clean. Watch the afternoon low at 3:21 PM. When the water slows, the reef bite can get picky and the bay can get plain stubborn.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the closest Gulf Stream note today. NOAA places the shoreward edge 1 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That can bring clean water tight to the reef, and it can also make the outside tempting.

For reef fishing, yellowtail snapper are good if the current sets up in 45 to 70 feet. Mangroves are fair around the structure. A mutton bait belongs on the deeper side while the tide is moving.

The caution is the afternoon breeze. This is the reef most tied to the 15 to 20 knot bump in the forecast. Get the anchor right early, and do not let a bad angle waste the best part of the tide.

conch reef

Conch should fish fair to good in the morning. It has enough depth options to adjust without making a production out of it, and the sea state starts manageable.

Yellowtail are the first call in 50 to 80 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair if the water has a little stain or cloud cover. Muttons are fair on deeper hard bottom.

If the wind comes up sooner than expected, tighten the plan. Fish the best stretch of moving water, then slide before the afternoon gets sloppy.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half-day option. Shorter run, smaller commitment, and enough reef to keep a family trip active without needing to gamble offshore.

Yellowtail are fair in 40 to 60 feet. Cero mackerel are possible if bait shows behind the boat. Mangroves are fair tight to structure.

This is a good place to keep the setup clean. Light leaders for the yellowtails, one heavier bait for a mutton, and a quick reset if the slick is not lining up.

crocker reef

Crocker is a fair call today, especially if the upper reef gets too busy or the wind angle is annoying. The forecast south and west of Craig Key is a little friendlier than the Ocean Reef to Craig Key zone.

Yellowtail snapper should be fair to good in 50 to 80 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Mangroves are fair around broken bottom if the current is not dead.

The best window is the falling tide after the morning high. Once the tide gets close to the afternoon low, do not be surprised if the bite turns fussy.

alligator reef

Alligator gets a good grade for reef work and a fair grade for checking outside. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, close enough to matter if there is bait or a color edge.

Yellowtail are good in 45 to 75 feet when the chum line carries. Muttons are fair deeper. Mangroves are fair around structure.

This is one of the better spots to make a decision. If the outside has life, look. If it is empty, stay on the reef and make dinner happen.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should be fair to good for crews working west. The local Hawk Channel forecast is 1 to 2 feet this afternoon, and the southwest to west wind should stay manageable if storms stay away.

Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are the practical targets in 40 to 70 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper pieces during the outgoing tide. Cero mackerel are fair if bait piles up.

Do not sit too long in dead water. If the tide quits near the afternoon low, move, reset, or wait for the next push instead of feeding the same quiet patch.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. The reef is fishable, the morning tide gives you movement, and the seas are small enough to work clean.

Mangrove snapper are fair. They should be better around structure, early in the day, or under cloud cover.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Fresh bait on bottom during moving water is the program.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait. Keep a wire option ready, but do not make the whole spread too heavy if yellowtails are picky.

Mahi mahi are fair offshore. The Gulf Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator, but the afternoon Straits forecast is not worth forcing without signs.

Blackfin tuna are fair early around current and bait. The better shot is before the southwest to west breeze builds.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are possible in the bay and on the flats, but the heat gives them a short clock. Early moving water is the best part of that game.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Molasses and Alligator have the closest Gulf Stream influence, Conch and Davis are good working stops, and Crocker or Tennessee make sense if you want to slide west with a little more room.

The ocean is not bad today. It just has a timer on it. Make the morning count, keep one eye on the sky, and do not let July thunderstorms sneak up on you.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:52 AM EDT. The morning read still holds, but the wind is getting a little more defined now that the day has heat on it.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key, the small craft caution is still posted for increasing winds. Southwest to west wind near 10 knots is expected to bump briefly to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Seas are still around 1 foot building to around 2 feet, and nearshore waters go from a light chop to choppy. No big surprise there. That was the problem spot this morning, and it still is.

From Craig Key down through the west end of Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA cleaned up the early wind as variable 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest and increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Seas remain around 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet. That is not a shutdown, but it does mean the afternoon anchor set needs a little respect.

The Straits north of Craig Key are still the roughest outside piece for our side of the Upper Keys, with southwest to west wind near 10 knots increasing briefly to 15 to 20 knots, and seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail is southwest to west 2 feet at 3 seconds. Short water. If the outside does not show birds, bait, weed, or clean color, the reef is the smarter work.

Florida Bay also firmed up from the morning wording. Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots increases near 15 knots this afternoon, with bay waters going from light to moderate chop to a moderate chop. The hot water problem has not changed. Vaca Key was already 89.2 F early this morning, so the flats get tougher as the sun climbs.

The midday call is simple. Reef first, stay honest about the afternoon breeze, and do not chase empty water just because the Gulf Stream edge is close.

evening addendum, 4:31 pm noaa update

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:31 PM EDT, and the afternoon did about what it was supposed to do. The west side of the breeze filled in, the upper Hawk Channel zone stayed the touchier piece, and the reef was still the better place to spend the day unless the outside showed real life.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key still has a small craft caution until winds decrease. NOAA has southwest to west wind 15 to 20 knots early, dropping to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot, with nearshore waters going from a moderate chop to a light to moderate chop. There is still a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

From Craig Key through the west end of Seven Mile Bridge, tonight is easier but not slick. Southwest to west wind is 10 to 15 knots, seas are 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. That is working water for a good boat, but it is not the kind of night where you pretend the anchor will set itself.

The Straits north of Craig Key settle some tonight. NOAA has southwest to west wind near 15 knots early, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet, with a southwest to west 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. South and west of Craig Key, the Straits are a little softer with southwest to west wind near 10 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and a west to northwest 1 foot wave at 4 seconds.

That makes the afternoon recap pretty clean. The reef call held. Yellowtail and mangrove snapper stayed the practical plan, and any offshore swing needed birds, bait, weed, color, or a hard edge. July will let you waste fuel in a hurry if you run out there just because the Gulf Stream edge is close.

wednesday outlook

Wednesday is fishable, but it still has some west wind in it. Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key has southwest wind near 15 knots, briefly increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas are around 1 foot building to around 2 feet, and nearshore waters go from a moderate chop to choppy.

From Craig Key through Seven Mile Bridge, NOAA has southwest to west wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. That is the better reef lane on paper if you want a little less shove.

The Straits north of Craig Key have southwest wind 10 to 15 knots, briefly increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas run 1 to 2 feet, building to around 2 feet, with a southwest 2 foot wave at 3 seconds. Farther west in the Straits, NOAA has southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots increasing near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and a west 1 foot wave at 4 seconds.

My call for Wednesday is reef first again. Molasses and Conch need respect if the afternoon wind bump shows up early. Alligator, Crocker, and Tennessee give you a little more room to work the snapper program. Offshore is fair, but only with signs. No signs, no hero run.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT, updated 10:52 AM EDT, and updated 4:31 PM EDT Tuesday, July 28, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Whale Harbor Channel, Islamorada station 8723812. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NWS Gulf Stream edge positions as of July 26, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.