Captain's Log, July 29, 2026, southwest wind, warm water, fishable reef

Wednesday, July 29. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:26 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line gets a workable day with a little teeth in the afternoon wind.

The breeze is southwest to west instead of the regular east side pattern. That changes the feel of the reef. It can flatten some places close in, but it can also make the boat sit funny on certain drops, especially when the current does not agree with the wind. Today is fishable. It is not a day to anchor sloppy and hope the chum fixes it.

NOAA has Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key under a small craft exercise caution headline for increasing winds. Southwest wind is 10 to 15 knots this morning, briefly increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters going from a light to moderate chop to choppy. From Craig Key west through the Seven Mile Bridge line, the forecast is a touch softer, southwest 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest to west, seas 1 to 2 feet.

The Straits off the upper Keys are still manageable, but the afternoon wind bump matters. NOAA has southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, briefly increasing to 15 to 20 knots, with seas 1 to 3 feet and a southwest 2 foot wave at 3 seconds. Short period water makes a small sea feel busy.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 88.9 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot before breakfast. The bay can still produce, but the better work is early, shaded, tied to moving water, or saved for late.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southwest 10 to 15 knots, brief 15 to 20 knot afternoon bump upper Keys
Hawk Channel	1 to 2 feet, light to moderate chop becoming choppy near Ocean Reef to Craig Key
Straits	1 to 3 feet, southwest 2 feet at 3 seconds
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	3 NM southeast of Alligator, 1 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	fair to good reef day, careful outside look, tough hot-water flats

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the main play today. The sea height is not ugly, but the upper reef gets enough breeze this afternoon to keep crews honest. NOAA’s 1 to 2 foot number is workable for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee. The choppy nearshore note up around Ocean Reef to Craig Key is the part I would respect.

The southwest wind makes Davis, Crocker, and Alligator look practical. Short enough run, plenty of reef, and no need to burn the whole morning looking for hero water. Molasses is still in play, but the upper Keys afternoon bump could make it a little busier than the chart makes it sound.

Set the boat right. If the stern is not pointed where the chum needs to go, fix it before you start feeding fish that never get behind you.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair, not automatic. One to 3 feet is fine on paper, but 2 feet at 3 seconds from the southwest is close together. If you have a crew that handles motion and you see birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a clean edge, take a short look.

NOAA lists the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream as of July 26 at 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close. Close water can help mahi and blackfin prospects, especially if there is life on the edge. But close water without signs is still just fuel leaving the tank.

I would not leave a working yellowtail bite to blind troll in short-period slop. Make the ocean earn the run.

florida bay

Florida Bay has southwest wind 10 to 15 knots, increasing near 15 knots, with bay waters building from a light to moderate chop to a moderate chop. That is not terrible bay weather, but the water temperature is the problem.

At 88.9 F before 6 AM, the flats are on a short clock. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but I would not lean on hot midday skinny water. Early moving water is the best shot. Later, deeper edges, bridge lanes, channels, and shaded cuts make more sense than baking on a flat.

tides for wednesday, july 29

Whale Harbor Channel gives the cleanest NOAA ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	3:48 AM EDT	0.26 ft	early low
High	9:25 AM EDT	1.33 ft	morning high
Low	3:59 PM EDT	0.01 ft	afternoon low
High	9:59 PM EDT	1.45 ft	night high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay is the nearby bay-side NOAA station.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	1:20 PM EDT	1.05 ft	early afternoon high
Low	7:35 PM EDT	0.09 ft	evening low

For the reef, the best normal charter window is the fall after the 9:25 AM Whale Harbor high. That gives the chum a chance to stretch if the current has direction. The afternoon low at 3:59 PM can stall some spots, so do not get married to a dead slick.

For the bay, that 1:20 PM high is happening in hot water. It may move fish, but heat still wins plenty of arguments in July. Make the early part count.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses has the closest Gulf Stream edge in the NOAA read, listed 1 NM southeast of the light. That gives it the best outside-water upside today, especially if the edge has birds or bait on it.

The reef itself should be fair to good for yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet if the current pulls. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and active slicks.

The afternoon southwest breeze may make the upper line choppier than it looks from the dock. If the crew is green, get the fish early or pick a shorter run.

conch reef

Conch is a fair call. The depth range is right, and the morning tide should give enough water movement after the high if the wind and current do not fight too much.

Yellowtail are the first bet. Mangrove snapper are fair around harder structure, especially if cloud cover keeps the light down. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth soaking while the water falls.

If the slick slides wrong, move. Conch fishes a lot better when the boat is sitting honest.

davis reef

Davis is the clean half-day answer. It is close, it gives you enough protection from wasting time, and it has plenty of 40 to 60 foot bottom for yellowtail.

Yellowtail should be fair to good if the current stretches the chum. Mangroves are fair on ledges and patchier pieces. Cero mackerel are possible when bait stacks up and starts acting nervous.

For families, newer anglers, or anyone who does not need a long run to feel like they went fishing, Davis makes sense today.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good working grade. The southwest wind should still leave it fishable, and the falling tide after the morning high gives the snapper program a real chance.

Start around 50 to 80 feet and let the current decide the exact number. Yellowtail are the main target. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge with a fresh bait left alone long enough to matter.

This is a day where a small reset can save the stop. Move twenty yards if that is what it takes.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better all-around calls. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so there is outside upside without committing to a long offshore day.

The reef should be fair to good for yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair deeper. Mangroves are fair around structure when the light is lower or the current has enough push.

Do not let the tower make the decision for you. Fish the water, the current, and the bottom. The obvious spot is not always the hungry spot.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, especially for boats already leaning west. The lower end of the Hawk Channel forecast is southwest 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest to west, seas 1 to 2 feet, which is workable reef weather.

Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are fair to good from 40 to 70 feet. A mutton bait deserves time during the fall. If the water slows near the afternoon low, be ready to change depth or slide to harder bottom.

From Islamorada, I would not pass Davis, Crocker, and Alligator unless I had a reason. But Tennessee is not off the board.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	chum 40 to 75 feet while the tide falls
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with fresh bait
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, lower light
Cero mackerel	fair	active slicks with bait showing
Mahi mahi	fair	short outside check near Molasses or Alligator if signs show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early current edges and bait outside
Bonefish	poor to fair	early moving water before heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	deeper edges and moving water
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes, channels, evening current

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet. The reef is fishable, the tide gives you a good working window after the morning high, and the water is calm enough to anchor with some precision. Use enough chum to build the line, then keep the bait natural.

Mutton snapper are a fair shot on the deeper edge from Conch through Tennessee. Fresh bait matters more than a fancy story. Put it where it belongs and leave it alone.

Mahi mahi are fair because the Gulf Stream edge is close. That does not make it a guaranteed dolphin day. It means the outside deserves a look only if the surface shows life.

Blackfin tuna are fair early around deeper current edges and bait. They are a bonus today, not the main plan.

The flats are hot. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon need moving water and timing. Midday is the hard shift with Vaca Key already at 88.9 F before sunrise had much time to work.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the easy half-day move. Crocker and Alligator are the better snapper calls if the crew can handle a little afternoon chop. Molasses gets the outside check because the Gulf Stream edge is close, but I would not run past a good reef bite just to stare at empty blue water.

Watch the southwest bump after lunch. The numbers are still fishable, but short-period seas and choppy nearshore water can make a small forecast feel rougher than it reads.

Today rewards a clean anchor set, fresh bait, and leaving before the sky has to explain itself twice.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:14 AM EDT, and the upper Keys breeze got a little more bite on it.

The morning call had Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key at 1 to 2 feet. The midday forecast now brings southwest wind near 15 knots up to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon, with seas around 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters go from moderate chop to choppy. That is still fishable for the right crew, but it is not the same soft 1 to 2 foot reef ride we started with before coffee.

The upper Straits changed the same way. NOAA now has southwest wind near 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon, seas around 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet, with a southwest 2 foot wave at 3 seconds. Short period water stacks up quick, so I would keep the outside look short unless the birds, weed, bait, or color change make it worth the fuel.

Florida Bay is about where it was expected to be. Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becomes southwest to west and near 15 knots, with bay waters building from light to moderate chop to moderate chop. The heat is still the bigger problem in the bay than the sea state.

From Craig Key west through the middle and lower Keys, NOAA did not make it worse. Hawk Channel stays 1 to 2 feet, and the west side of the Straits is actually forecast to ease later this afternoon from 10 to 15 knots down toward 5 to 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet.

So the adjustment is simple. Respect the upper Keys bump, fish the reef tight, and do not turn a good snapper stop into a sloppy offshore hunt unless the ocean is showing you something.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the 4:23 PM EDT coastal waters forecast, and the afternoon did about what it warned it might do. The upper Keys had enough southwest wind to make the reef feel busier than the number on the page. Not dangerous for a squared-away boat, but not a lazy drift-around kind of evening either.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key, NOAA kept the small craft exercise caution headline until winds decrease. Tonight is southwest 15 to 20 knots, dropping to 5 to 10 knots later. Seas run 2 to 3 feet early, then settle to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from choppy to smooth to a light chop.

The upper Straits are still the rougher side of the choice tonight. NOAA has southwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south to southwest and easing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, then falling to around 2 feet. The wave detail is southwest to west 1 foot at 3 seconds. That short-period push is enough reason to skip a late outside poke unless there is a real sign of fish.

Tomorrow looks cleaner. Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key is south to southwest 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth to a light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The upper Straits are south 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

That makes Thursday a better reef day than this afternoon was. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses all stay in play if the current has any backbone. Yellowtail should still be the honest money. Muttons are worth a bait on the deeper edge. For mahi, I would look only if the outside shows birds, weed, bait, or a clean color change. The Gulf Stream edge was still listed close on the July 26 read, 3 NM southeast of Alligator and 1 NM southeast of Molasses, but close water does not count unless it has life on it.

Florida Bay gets easier too. Thursday is southwest 5 to 10 knots, bay waters smooth to a light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The heat is still the tax. Fish early, fish moving water, and do not ask hot July flats to act like April.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT July 29, 2026, with midday update issued 10:14 AM EDT and evening update issued 4:23 PM EDT July 29, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of July 26, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.