Captain's log, July 31, 2026, light wind, one foot reef water

Friday, July 31. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:26 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line gets another soft July setup.

The western side of the Atlantic ridge is sliding across the Keys. That leaves a weak flow today, with light to gentle breezes and a stretch of variable wind possible into the first part of the weekend. Good running water. Not automatic fishing.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has southeast to south wind near 5 knots, becoming northwest this afternoon. Seas are 1 foot or less and nearshore waters are smooth. The Straits are east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast, with seas around 1 foot. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and west to northwest 1 foot at 4 seconds.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. The catch is current. When the wind goes light and the ridge gets lazy, the chum line can get lazy too.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 90.3 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot before breakfast. Reef crews have a good shot if the water moves. Bay and flats crews need to do their good work early.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast to south near 5 knots, becoming northwest in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	around 1 foot, mixed 1 foot wave detail
Rain	slight chance tonight, slight chance Saturday
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Nearby buoy	Buoy 41122 had 0.7 ft seas and 86.2 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	3 NM southeast of Alligator, 1 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look, poor hot slack bay water

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest lane today. Southeast to south wind near 5 knots this morning should become northwest this afternoon, with seas 1 foot or less and smooth nearshore water.

That is comfortable for reef trips from Key Largo down through Islamorada and west toward Tennessee. It is also light enough that you have to pay attention to how the boat lays. If the slick starts spreading under the transom or wrapping sideways, do not sit there and donate chum to nothing.

Davis and Crocker make good half-day calls. Alligator and Conch give you room to work depth. Molasses has the strongest outside-water note because the Gulf Stream edge is listed close to the light.

straits of florida

The Straits are open on paper. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast, seas around 1 foot, and a mixed 1 foot wave setup. That is small water.

NDBC buoy 41122 reported a 0.2 meter sea at 5:30 AM EDT, which is about 0.7 feet, with water at 30.1 C, about 86.2 F. That lines up with the forecast. Calm enough to go look, but calm does not mean the fish are waiting in a straight line.

NOAA lists the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream as of July 26 at 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close. If you see birds, bait, flyers, weed, color change, or a hard edge, take the shot. If the reef is biting, make the reef pay first.

florida bay

Florida Bay and the gulfside from Craig Key west are forecast south to southwest near 5 knots, becoming west to northwest and briefly increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters start smooth and become smooth to a light chop.

The bay water is the warning label. Vaca Key, Florida Bay was 90.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but the window is shorter than people want it to be. Fish moving water, channels, deeper edges, shade, or the late-day slide when the sun backs off.

tides for friday, july 31

Whale Harbor Channel gives the clean ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	5:02 AM EDT	0.15 ft	early low
High	10:48 AM EDT	1.39 ft	morning high
Low	5:13 PM EDT	0.03 ft	afternoon low
High	11:13 PM EDT	1.47 ft	late high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay is the nearby bay-side tide read.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	12:46 AM EDT	0.49 ft	overnight high
Low	7:01 AM EDT	0.19 ft	morning low
High	12:19 PM EDT	0.73 ft	midday high
Low	8:06 PM EDT	0.03 ft	evening low

For the reef, the best shape should be around the push into the 10:48 AM high and the fall after it. If the current stretches down the reef, yellowtail should respond. If it stalls near the afternoon low, change depth or reset instead of waiting on dead water.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the best outside-water note today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 1 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, and the Straits forecast is small enough for a short look if the signs show.

Yellowtail snapper should be fair to good in 45 to 75 feet if the current holds. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and active slicks.

Do not leave a working yellowtail bite just because the water outside looks pretty. Pretty water can still be empty.

conch reef

Conch is a good practical call in this light setup. The sea state is easy, the tide gives you a morning high, and there is enough reef edge to move if the first stop lays wrong.

Yellowtail are the first target from 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure, especially if the light stays broken by clouds. A mutton bait belongs on the deeper side while the water moves.

Set the boat carefully. Light wind can make a sloppy anchor job look worse than it should.

davis reef

Davis is the easy half-day answer. Short run, smooth water, and enough bottom in the 40 to 60 foot range to build a meal without turning the morning into a fuel bill.

Yellowtail should be fair to good if the chum line has shape. Mangrove snapper are fair around broken bottom. Cero mackerel are possible if bait stacks up behind the boat.

For families or newer anglers, Davis is a smart play today. Keep it simple and do not overfeed the fish.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good grade because it gives you depth options without making a big move. Start around 50 to 80 feet and let the current tell you if you need to slide.

Yellowtail are the main bet. Mutton snapper are fair deeper with fresh bait set clean near bottom. Mangroves are fair, better if the light stays low or the current keeps the bait moving.

If the slick wanders, move. If it stretches, give it time.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better all-around calls. The Gulf Stream edge is listed 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so the outside influence is close enough to matter without committing the whole day offshore.

Yellowtail should be fair to good in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on deeper pieces. Mangroves are fair around structure and lower light.

This is a good place to make decisions with your eyes. Reef bite alive, stay. Birds or bait outside, check it. Neither happening, change depth before you start making excuses.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable and comfortable today. From Islamorada, I would not pass good water at Davis, Crocker, or Alligator without a reason, but Tennessee is on the board for boats already leaning west.

Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are fair to good from 40 to 70 feet. A mutton bait is worth time on the deeper side during the falling tide. The afternoon low can slow the whole program down.

Good water, good bottom, but it still needs current.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	chum 45 to 75 feet while the tide moves
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with fresh bait
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, lower light
Cero mackerel	fair	bait schools and active chum slicks
Mahi mahi	fair	short outside check if birds or weed show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early deeper edges and current lines
Bonefish	poor to fair	early moving water before the bay heats harder
Permit	poor to fair	deeper edges with tide movement
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, evening current

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. The reef is calm, the morning tide gives you a usable window, and the wind is light enough to set up without getting beat up. Keep the bait natural and let the slick work.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge from Conch through Tennessee. Fresh bait matters more than speeches. Put it where it belongs and leave it alone when the current is right.

Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. They should be better early, late, or under any cloud cover that keeps the reef from getting too bright.

Mahi are fair because the Gulf Stream edge is close off Molasses and Alligator. That is not a license to troll blind all morning. It means the outside is worth a look if the ocean gives you signs.

Blackfin tuna are fair early around bait and deeper current edges. Nice bonus fish in this setup. Not the main plan unless you already see life outside.

The flats side is heat limited. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still make you look good, but 90.3 F bay water before 6 AM is not forgiving. Early, late, moving water. That is the deal.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first.

Davis is the easy family trip. Crocker and Alligator are the better snapper lanes if the current lays right. Molasses gets the outside-water nod because the Gulf Stream edge is tucked close, but I would not leave a clean chum bite to go stare at blue water.

Small water is a gift. Lazy current is the bill that comes with it.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:24 AM EDT. The main call did not get worse. It got a little more drifty.

For Hawk Channel, the morning forecast had southeast to south wind near 5 knots becoming northwest this afternoon. The midday package now has variable wind near 5 knots through the afternoon. Seas stay 1 foot or less and nearshore waters stay smooth.

The Straits are still small. NOAA kept east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast, seas around 1 foot, with wave detail of east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and west to northwest 1 foot at 4 seconds.

Florida Bay did not change much either. Southwest wind near 5 knots increases to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, with bay waters smooth becoming smooth to a light chop. Bayside and gulfside water from Craig Key west is still variable near 5 knots, becoming west to northwest and briefly 5 to 10 knots, with seas 1 foot or less.

The Gulf Stream edge update is worth noting. NOAA now lists it 5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, compared with this morning’s source note of 3 NM off Alligator and 1 NM off Molasses from the older July 26 edge. Still close enough to check if the ocean shows birds, weed, bait, or color. Just not quite as tucked in on paper.

So the afternoon plan stays simple. Reef first, especially Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses. If the chum line lays out, work it. If the wind goes sloppy-light and the current quits, move before the heat talks everybody into bad decisions.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT and updated 10:24 AM EDT Friday, July 31, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observations from buoy 41122 at 5:30 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of July 31, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:12 PM EDT. The light-water story held together, but the breeze stayed loose enough that the boat handling mattered as much as the forecast.

Hawk Channel is still small tonight. NOAA has variable wind near 5 knots, with the Upper Keys starting southwest near 10 knots early, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth, except the Upper Keys where a light chop becomes smooth to a light chop.

The Straits stay friendly on paper. Variable wind near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Buoy 41122 reported 0.4 meters at 20:30 UTC, about 1.3 feet, with a 3 second dominant period and water at 30.4 C, about 86.7 F. That is still small ocean. It is also still summer-hot water.

The afternoon recap is pretty plain. Reef water stayed fishable, the outside stayed worth a look only where it showed life, and the better snapper work should have come from places with enough current to keep a chum line honest. On days like this, clean anchoring and patience help, but sitting through dead water does not.

Saturday keeps the same easy-running setup with a little more east in it. Hawk Channel gets east to southeast wind near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, smooth nearshore water, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The Straits get east wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet, with east wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds and the same slight storm chance.

For Saturday morning, I would still start with the reef. Davis for a clean half-day. Crocker and Alligator if you want more room to work depth. Molasses if the outside edge starts showing birds, weed, bait, or color. NOAA keeps the Gulf Stream edge close, 5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, so the option is there. Make it earn the fuel.

Bay crews get smooth water Saturday, with variable wind becoming south to southwest near 5 knots and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. That is comfortable, but the heat is still the tax. Fish early, fish moving water, and do not beat up warm flats just because the surface looks pretty.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:12 PM EDT Friday, July 31, 2026. NDBC buoy 41122 observation at 20:30 UTC July 31, 2026. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of July 31, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.