Captain's log, August 2, 2026, southeast breeze and small reef seas

Sunday, August 2. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:26 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets a fishable reef morning with a little more southeast in the breeze.

High pressure is starting to strengthen in the North Atlantic. NOAA has the breeze freshening while turning southeast early this morning, then light to gentle flow into early next week with some periods of gentle to moderate wind. Rain chances rise next week as deeper moisture works in ahead of a front near northern Florida.

For today, Hawk Channel is southeast to south near 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, with nearshore waters a light chop. The Straits are southeast near 10 knots, becoming east to southeast, with seas 1 to 2 feet and an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 4 seconds.

That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. It is not glass calm like some of the last few mornings, but it is still good working water for reef fishing.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 91.6 F water at 5:18 AM EDT. That is hot water before the coffee cools. Reef crews have the better card today, especially while the current has shape.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast to south near 10 knots in Hawk Channel, southeast near 10 knots becoming east to southeast in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters a light chop
Straits	seas 1 to 2 feet, east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 91.6 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Nearby buoy	Buoy 41122 had 0.7 ft seas and 85.5 F water at 5:00 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	5 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look, poor hot slack bay water

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the practical lane today. NOAA has southeast to south wind near 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and a light chop nearshore.

That is comfortable enough for the reef line from Key Largo down through Islamorada. It also gives the boat a cleaner lay than a dead-calm morning, which can help the chum line stretch instead of washing around under the stern.

Davis and Crocker are the easy half-day calls. Conch and Alligator give you more room to work depth. Molasses gets extra attention because NOAA places the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 31.

straits of florida

The Straits are open, but not automatic. NOAA has southeast wind near 10 knots becoming east to southeast, seas 1 to 2 feet, and wave detail of east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds.

NDBC buoy 41122 reported 0.2 meters of sea at 5:00 AM EDT, which is about 0.7 feet. Water there was 29.7 C, about 85.5 F. That backs up the forecast and keeps the outside edge worth checking if the signs are there.

NOAA lists the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream 5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close enough to matter. Still, do not leave biting reef fish just to stare at empty blue water. Birds, bait, flyers, weed, color, or a hard current edge need to earn the move.

florida bay

Florida Bay is southeast to south 5 to 10 knots today. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The bay temperature is the limiter. Vaca Key was 91.6 F at 5:18 AM EDT. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat in August, but the window is tight. Fish early, fish moving water, and do not grind dead-hot flats because the sky looks friendly.

tides for sunday, august 2

Snake Creek, USCG Station, Plantation Key gives the nearby Islamorada tide read for today.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	12:41 AM EDT	0.89 ft	overnight high
Low	7:11 AM EDT	0.04 ft	morning low
High	1:04 PM EDT	0.87 ft	early afternoon high
Low	7:29 PM EDT	0.09 ft	evening low

For the reef, I would want the water starting to move after the morning low and building toward the 1:04 PM high. If the current lays down near slack, change depth or reset. Waiting on dead water in August is how a decent plan turns into a long boat ride.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses has one of the better outside-water notes today. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, and the Straits forecast is small enough for a look if the reef side does not fire.

Yellowtail snapper should be fair to good in 45 to 75 feet if the current stretches. Mutton snapper are fair along the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair if bait is stacked behind the boat.

Do not overthink it. If the slick looks right and the fish start climbing, stay with them.

conch reef

Conch is a good working reef today. Southeast breeze near 10 knots should help the boat sit, and the morning rise into the early afternoon high gives the chum a better chance to work.

Yellowtail are the main target in 45 to 75 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair around rougher bottom. A mutton bait belongs down while the current has enough push to keep it honest.

If the first stop lays wrong, move before the heat talks you into being lazy.

davis reef

Davis is the short-run answer. One foot Hawk Channel water, light chop, and a manageable southeast breeze make it a solid family reef trip setup.

Yellowtail should be fair, with a shot at good if the current has direction. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Cero mackerel are possible if bait shows up in the slick.

Keep the rigging simple. Let the chum line tell you whether to feed harder or pull the hook.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good grade because it gives you depth options without burning the morning. Start around 50 to 80 feet and let the current make the next decision.

Yellowtail are the best bet. Mutton snapper are fair deeper with fresh bait near bottom. Mangroves are fair on rougher pieces, especially if clouds hold the light down.

If the boat lays right, give it time. If the slick spreads sideways, slide.

alligator reef

Alligator is worth attention today. NOAA places the Gulf Stream edge 5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so clean outside influence may be close enough to help the deeper edge.

Yellowtail are fair to good in the right current. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Cero mackerel are fair where bait is present.

This is a good place to watch the water color. If the reef is quiet and the outside has birds or weed, take a short look. If the reef is biting, make the reef pay.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should be comfortable in this forecast. The run is clean, the sea state is small, and the breeze has enough southeast in it to help the boat sit.

Yellowtail are fair. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Mutton snapper are fair if the bait stays placed while the water moves.

The best window should be the moving water after the morning low. Once the afternoon heat and slack get together, do not be stubborn.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best reef bet today. The sea state is small enough to fish clean, but the bite still needs current. No current, no magic.

Mutton snapper are fair on deeper reef edges and broken bottom. Fresh bait matters. Mangrove snapper are fair early and around structure, better if the light stays lower.

Cero mackerel are fair where bait gets pushed into the slick. Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, especially with the Gulf Stream close to Molasses and Alligator, but I would not sell the day on it until the ocean shows life.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are heat-limited on the bay side. Fish them early or around moving water. When Vaca Key is already over 91 F before sunrise, the bay gets a short leash.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT Sunday, August 2, 2026. Tide prediction from NOAA CO-OPS station 8723786, Snake Creek, USCG Station, Plantation Key. Buoy readings from NDBC 41122 and VCAF1 checked Sunday morning.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:26 AM EDT. The short version is that the morning call still holds.

Hawk Channel is still southeast to south near 10 knots this afternoon, with seas 1 to 2 feet and nearshore waters a light chop. The Straits are still southeast winds near 10 knots becoming east to southeast, with seas around 2 feet. NOAA’s wave detail for the Straits is east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds.

Florida Bay stayed easy on paper too. Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, bay waters smooth to a light chop. That is not the problem. The hot water is still the problem.

The one change worth watching is weather coverage. The morning forecast already had rain chances increasing next week. The midday package keeps only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon, but it brings a chance of showers tonight with a slight chance of thunderstorms. By Wednesday and Thursday, NOAA has showers and thunderstorms likely in several Keys waters zones. Any storm that gets on top of you can kick up higher wind and seas fast, even on a light forecast day.

For the rest of today, I would still call it good reef water, fair outside water, and poor hot slack bay water. Keep an eye west and north for building weather, but the reef line from Molasses through Tennessee is still the working plan.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:26 AM EDT Sunday, August 2, 2026.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West issued the afternoon coastal waters forecast at 4:21 PM EDT, and the night stays fishable on paper. Light breeze, small seas, and a little more shower coverage starting to work into the next stretch.

The afternoon did not turn into a wind problem. That was the useful part of the day. The reef plan stayed better than baking in the bay, with Hawk Channel small enough for Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, Molasses, and Tennessee if the current behaved.

For tonight, Hawk Channel has variable wind near 5 knots early, becoming southeast to south 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to smooth with a light chop. The Straits are east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast, with seas 1 to 2 feet and a southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. Florida Bay starts variable near 5 knots, then turns southeast to south 5 to 10 knots, with smooth water becoming smooth to a light chop.

The weather note is not nasty, but it matters. NOAA carries a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight. Next week has more moisture in the forecast ahead of a frontal boundary up near northern Florida, and storms can make their own wind fast even when the base forecast is light.

monday outlook

Monday still looks workable. Hawk Channel gets south to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest. Seas stay around 1 foot, and nearshore waters stay smooth to a light chop. The Straits get south to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest, with seas 1 to 2 feet. NOAA’s wave detail is southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds.

Florida Bay is also light, with south to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots and smooth to light chop. The catch is the same one we have been dealing with. Hot bay water does not give you much patience. Fish moving water early or leave it alone.

My Monday call is reef first again. Yellowtail are still the cleanest bet if the chum line stretches. Keep a mutton bait down when the current has push, and do not leave biting snapper just to go look at blue water. The outside is fair, not automatic. Birds, bait, weed, flyers, color, or a hard current edge need to earn the move.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:21 PM EDT Sunday, August 2, 2026.