Captain's log, August 3, 2026, light south wind, small seas, hot water

Monday, August 3. NOAA Key West put out a friendly summer forecast for the Islamorada reef line this morning. Not dead calm, not storm-free, but light enough to fish clean if you keep an eye on the sky.

The coastal waters forecast came out at 4:29 AM EDT. Hawk Channel has south wind near 10 knots becoming southwest to west, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters a light chop. The Straits are south to southwest near 10 knots becoming west, with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds and west to northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds.

That is a good reef setup for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee. The breeze is light, the sea is small, and the biggest warning is the usual August one. Showers and thunderstorms can put more wind and sea on top of you fast.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	south near 10 knots, becoming southwest to west on the ocean side
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters a light chop
Straits	seas 1 to 2 feet
Florida Bay	south 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest, smooth to light chop
Rain	chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore, fair bay early

wind and sea state

Hawk Channel

Hawk Channel is the best all-around water today. NOAA has south wind near 10 knots becoming southwest to west, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters a light chop. That is comfortable enough for reef fishing and close enough to shore that you can make smart moves without turning the day into a long ride.

For the reefs from Molasses down through Tennessee, the main question is current. If the current runs clean, yellowtail should chew. If wind and current start arguing, do not sit there all morning pretending the slick is right. Reset the boat or move.

Straits of Florida

The Straits are fishable on paper. NOAA has south to southwest wind near 10 knots becoming west, seas 1 to 2 feet, with a southeast 1 foot wave at 4 seconds and a west to northwest 1 foot wave at 5 seconds.

That is not a bad outside look. The Gulf Stream edge is close, listed by NOAA as 5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 31. Close blue water is worth respecting, but it still needs life on it. Birds, bait, weed, a color edge, or current pushing against the reef line should make the call.

Florida Bay

Florida Bay has south wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest, with bay waters smooth to a light chop. Vaca Key, Florida Bay showed 90.9 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is hot water. Early is the better bay window for bonefish, permit, and tarpon. Later in the day, shade lines, moving water, and patience matter more than pretty conditions.

tides for monday, august 3

NOAA predictions for Vaca Key, Florida Bay show two highs and two lows today.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	5:22 AM EDT	0.904 ft	early high
Low	10:29 AM EDT	0.296 ft	late morning low
High	5:41 PM EDT	0.861 ft	evening high
Low	10:49 PM EDT	0.388 ft	late low

NOAA predictions for Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay give the Islamorada bay-side read.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	2:16 AM EDT	0.601 ft	early high
Low	9:26 AM EDT	0.128 ft	morning low
High	2:29 PM EDT	0.575 ft	afternoon high
Low	9:36 PM EDT	0.138 ft	night low

The useful reef window is the water moving after the morning low. If the current starts sliding and the chum line lays out right, stay with it. If it goes lazy, go find another piece of bottom before the heat turns everybody quiet.

reef notes

Molasses reef

Molasses has the closest Stream edge in the NOAA read, 2 NM southeast of the light. That makes it tempting for a reef and outside combo.

Start on the reef before chasing blue water. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current runs. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth soaking, especially with a fresh ballyhoo, pinfish, or small grunt. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows in the slick.

Conch reef

Conch should fish well in the light chop. Work 50 to 80 feet and keep the stern lined up with the current.

Yellowtail are the main play. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure, especially where the bottom gives you ledges instead of plain sand. Mutton snapper are fair deeper, but do not turn the whole trip into waiting on one bite.

Davis reef

Davis is the practical Islamorada call today. Short ride, good reef bottom, small sea.

For a family half day, this is the kind of stop that makes sense. Yellowtail should be good in 40 to 60 feet with clean current. Mangroves are fair around patchy bottom. Cero mackerel are fair when bait stacks behind the boat.

Crocker reef

Crocker is a good deeper-edge option once the tide starts moving after the morning low. I would look from 55 to 80 feet and pay attention to how the slick lays.

Yellowtail are good. Muttons are fair if you put one real bait down and leave the rest of the spread working. The small sea lets you fish a cleaner anchor set, which matters more than people admit.

Alligator reef

Alligator gets a strong grade today. NOAA has the Stream edge 5 NM southeast of the light, and the reef itself gives you plenty of room to work without committing to the outside.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Cero mackerel are fair if the bait is active. If birds or weed show outside, take a look. If not, the reef is already the better bet.

Tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today, especially with Hawk Channel around 1 foot. It is still the longer run from Islamorada, so I would not pass better water at Davis, Crocker, or Alligator just to say I went west.

If you are already pointed that way, work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangrove snapper. The deeper edge has a fair mutton shot. Keep the plan simple and move when the current quits helping.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with clean chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and patch reef while the water moves
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside look around birds, weed, bait, or a hard color edge
Blackfin tuna	fair	early or late around deeper current edges
Bonefish	fair early	bay edges before the water gets hotter
Permit	fair early	cleaner moving water on the bay side
Tarpon	fair	bridge lanes and evening current

Yellowtail get the best mark today. Small seas, light wind, and enough current after the morning low should give the reef a good shot.

Muttons are fair, not automatic. Put a good bait in the right place and keep fishing. Mangroves are fair around structure, especially if the chum line stays clean and the boat sits right.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is close to Molasses and Alligator. I would not burn the whole morning blind. Let signs of life earn the run.

The bay is fair early. With 90.9 F water at Vaca Key, the cooler edges of the day matter. Midday bay fishing is still possible, but the fish are not going to hand you much in water that warm.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Alligator is the best mix of reef, outside option, and room to work. Davis is the easy half-day call. Crocker is the deeper snapper play if the current sets up right.

Molasses is worth a look because the Stream edge is close. Conch should be steady if the current runs. Tennessee is fishable, but I would only make that run if the water west looks better or the crew wants the longer ride.

This is a good August fishing day out of Islamorada. Small seas, light south wind, hot water, and a real thunderstorm watch in the back of your head. Fish clean, move when the water gets lazy, and do not let a pretty ocean talk you into ignoring the reef bite behind the boat.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:43 AM EDT, and the read is a touch bumpier than the early one on the ocean side.

Hawk Channel is now south 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest to west and dropping to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot, with nearshore waters starting at a light to moderate chop before easing to smooth to a light chop. That is still fishable reef water, but it is not quite as soft as the 4:29 AM package made it sound.

The Straits also came up a notch. NOAA now has south to southwest wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming west and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet. Wave detail still shows southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds and west to northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. So the outside look is fair, not slick. I would still make the reef earn the day before spending fuel offshore.

Florida Bay changed less. The midday update has south wind near 10 knots, becoming southwest and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters go from a light chop to smooth to a light chop. Showers remain in the forecast, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Same August rule applies, keep one eye on the sky because a pretty morning can turn mean fast under a cell.

Conditions report based on NOAA National Weather Service Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:29 AM EDT and updated 10:43 AM EDT Monday, August 3, 2026, NOAA tide predictions for Vaca Key and Upper Matecumbe Key, and NOAA water temperature observations from Vaca Key, Florida Bay.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West issued the afternoon coastal waters forecast at 4:37 PM EDT, and the day is settling down about how it looked on paper. Light breeze, small water, and the usual August weather watch. Not a bad Monday for the reef line.

The afternoon recap is simple. Hawk Channel and the nearshore reef water stayed the practical call. With the ocean not doing anything wild, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, Molasses, and Tennessee all stayed in play if the current gave you enough shape to work a chum line. The bay was still hot, so I would not call that the hero of the day unless you had the right moving water and got there early.

For tonight, Hawk Channel has variable wind near 5 knots, becoming southeast to south and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to smooth with a light chop. The Straits have southeast winds near 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet. NOAA’s wave detail is southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and west to northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Florida Bay starts variable near 5 knots, then turns southeast 5 to 10 knots, with smooth water becoming smooth to a light chop.

The Gulf Stream edge is still close enough to matter, especially around Islamorada and Key Largo. NOAA’s July 31 read has it 5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, and 1 NM southeast of Carysfort Reef Light. Close blue water is useful, but it still needs signs. Birds, weed, bait, flyers, color, or a hard current edge should make the decision.

tuesday outlook

Tuesday looks fishable, but not storm-free. NOAA has light to gentle breezes continuing through Tuesday before the southeasterly flow builds more for mid to late week. Rain chances start climbing Tuesday night as deeper moisture moves in ahead of a frontal boundary near northern Florida. Any shower or thunderstorm can kick up higher wind and seas around it.

Hawk Channel for Tuesday gets south wind near 5 knots, becoming northeast to east and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, and nearshore waters stay smooth to a light chop. The Straits get southeast to south wind near 5 knots, becoming northeast to east and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas stay 1 to 2 feet, with southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and west to northwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Florida Bay has southeast to south wind near 5 knots with smooth bay waters.

My Tuesday call is reef first again. Yellowtail are still the cleanest play if the current runs. Keep a mutton bait down on the deeper edge, watch for cero mackerel in the slick, and only spend fuel offshore if the ocean shows life. The weather is not a shutdown, but the sky gets a vote in August.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:37 PM EDT Monday, August 3, 2026.