Captain's log, August 5, 2026, easterlies building and two foot reef water

Wednesday, August 5. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:19 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets a workable reef day with more breeze than the flat calm stuff we had earlier in the week.

The Atlantic ridge is strengthening and lifting north toward North Florida. That puts gentle easterlies over the Keys early, then moderate east wind as the day and week move on. Rain chances stay up too, with pockets of deep moisture crossing the area at times. Any thunderstorm can stack wind and seas fast, so do not treat the forecast like a promise once the sky starts talking.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has southeast wind near 10 knots becoming east. Seas run 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters a light chop and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are still fishable, but they are not slick. NOAA has southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east, seas around 2 feet, and wave detail east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds with a west 1 foot wave at 5 seconds. Tonight builds to 2 to 3 feet.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 89.2 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. Nearby NDBC buoy 41122 reported 0.3 ft seas and 85.6 F water at 4:30 AM EDT. That is hot bay water and small ocean water. The reef still gets the better card.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	southeast near 10 knots becoming east in Hawk Channel, southeast 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas 1 to 2 feet, nearshore waters a light chop
Straits	seas around 2 feet, east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds with a west 1 foot wave at 5 seconds
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.2 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Nearby buoy	NDBC 41122 had 0.3 ft seas and 85.6 F water at 4:30 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	5 NM southeast of Alligator, 2 NM southeast of Molasses, based on the July 31 NOAA note
Overall call	good reef morning, fair outside look, poor hot slack bay water

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest lane today. One to two feet and a light chop is enough to make the boat move around, but it is still very workable for reef fishing from Key Largo through Islamorada.

Davis and Crocker are strong half-day calls. Conch and Alligator give you more room to find the right current. Molasses has the closer Gulf Stream note, with NOAA placing the shoreward edge 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 31.

This is not a day to anchor sloppy and hope the chum fixes it. If the slick is sliding wrong or falling under the boat, reset before the bite gets lazy.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair. NOAA has southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east, seas around 2 feet, and a short 4 second east to southeast wave.

NDBC buoy 41122 backed up the small-water call early, reporting 0.3 ft seas at 4:30 AM EDT. The buoy is north of the Keys, so use it as a nearby reference, not a substitute for what you see off the reef.

NOAA lists the Gulf Stream shoreward edge 5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps Molasses and Alligator interesting if the water color, bait, birds, weed, or current gives you a real reason to look.

florida bay

Florida Bay has southeast wind near 10 knots becoming east, with bay waters a light chop. The problem is heat. Vaca Key water was already 89.2 F before 6 AM.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat in that water, but the window is narrow. Fish early, fish moving water, and do not grind dead-hot flats just because the wind feels manageable.

tides for wednesday, august 5

Whale Harbor Channel is the ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	1:50 AM EDT	1.36 ft	overnight high
Low	8:35 AM EDT	0.01 ft	morning low
High	2:41 PM EDT	1.40 ft	afternoon high
Low	9:06 PM EDT	0.34 ft	night low

Islamorada, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay is the nearby bay-side tide read.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	3:27 AM EDT	0.66 ft	early high
Low	11:36 AM EDT	0.08 ft	late morning low
High	4:32 PM EDT	0.41 ft	afternoon high
Low	10:49 PM EDT	0.21 ft	night low

For the reef, the best shape should be the push after the 8:35 AM low and the water leading into the 2:41 PM high. If the current lays out down the reef, yellowtail should get interested. If the current quits or swings ugly, move instead of waiting on hot water to save the day.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the cleanest outside-water note today because NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of the light. With Straits seas around 2 feet, a short outside look can make sense if the reef signs line up.

Yellowtail snapper should be fair to good in 45 to 75 feet with enough current to stretch the chum. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair around bait and active slicks.

Do not leave a working reef bite just because the water outside looks pretty. Pretty water still has to have life in it.

conch reef

Conch should fish fair to good if the current starts moving after the morning low. The breeze is enough to keep the boat honest, but not enough to shut the place down.

Yellowtail are the first play in 45 to 75 feet. Keep a mutton bait down while the current is right. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure, especially early or under cloud cover.

If the chum hangs weak, change depth before you burn the whole tide.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half-day call. Short run, protected feel, and enough structure to make a good morning without beating anyone up.

Yellowtail should be fair, with a shot at good if the water moves clean after the low. Mangroves are fair on the rougher pieces. Cero mackerel are possible if bait piles up behind the boat.

For families, Davis makes sense today. Make the first anchor set count.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good grade because it gives you room to slide without making a big move. Start around 50 to 80 feet and let the current tell you whether to work tighter or deeper.

Yellowtail are the main bet. Mutton snapper are fair deeper with fresh bait near bottom. Mangroves are fair around the structure when the light stays low.

The east breeze will make a bad anchor set show itself quick. Fix it early.

alligator reef

Alligator is worth watching today. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 5 NM southeast of the light, so cleaner outside water may influence the deeper side.

Yellowtail are fair to good if the current line behaves. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper reef edges and broken bottom. Cero mackerel are fair where bait gets pushed into the slick.

If the reef is slow and the outside has birds or color, a short look can pay. If it is just empty blue water, keep fishing.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should be comfortable enough in this forecast, though it will have more chop than the dead-calm days. Hawk Channel at 1 to 2 feet is still manageable.

Yellowtail are fair. Mangroves are fair around structure. Mutton snapper are fair if you can keep a bait placed right while the tide moves.

Do not overthink Tennessee today. Find the current, fish the cleanest water, and leave if the slick never wakes up.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best reef bet. The afternoon high gives the reef a decent tide window, but the bite still needs a clean chum line and steady current.

Mutton snapper are fair on deeper reef edges and broken bottom. Fresh bait matters. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure, better before the sun gets high or if storms leave cloud cover.

Cero mackerel are fair around bait. Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, mostly if the Gulf Stream edge near Molasses or Alligator shows birds, weed, flyers, or a clear color change. I would not sell the day on offshore before the reef proves slow.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are heat-limited on the bay side. Fish early and stay honest about water temperature. When the flat goes still and hot, the smarter move is usually a new plan.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:28 AM EDT. The big picture did not flip, but the wording tightened up for the afternoon.

Hawk Channel is now east to southeast near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, nearshore waters a light chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. That is close to the morning call, just less of the southeast-becoming-east setup and more of an easterly trade already settled in.

The Straits got a little bumpier on paper. The morning report had seas around 2 feet, while the midday forecast has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet this afternoon. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds with a west 1 foot wave at 5 seconds. Still fishable, but not the cleanest ride for anyone trying to make a long outside run.

Florida Bay stays manageable on wind, east to southeast near 10 knots with bay waters a light chop. Showers and thunderstorms remain the wildcard across the board. If one parks over the line you are fishing, expect the breeze and chop to jump quick.

For the rest of today, I would keep the reef plan simple. Davis, Crocker, Conch, and Alligator still make sense. The outside only earns a look if the birds, weed, color, or current give you something real to chase.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:19 AM EDT and refreshed at 10:28 AM EDT Wednesday, August 5, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide and water temperature data checked Wednesday morning. NDBC station 41122 latest available observation checked Wednesday morning.

evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

NOAA Key West put out the 4:45 PM coastal waters forecast, and the evening read is still workable, just a little more honest on the east wind.

The afternoon call held together about how it looked at midday. The reef was the better choice than trying to force a long outside ride just because the Gulf Stream edge is close. Hawk Channel stayed in that small, choppy, fishable lane. The Straits were fair, but with the short east sea and scattered weather around, you wanted a reason before burning fuel past the reef.

Tonight, Hawk Channel gets east wind near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, building to around 2 feet, with nearshore waters going from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. The Straits get east wind near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas around 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet. NOAA lists the Straits wave detail as east 3 feet at 4 seconds.

Florida Bay is not rough, but it is not glass either. NOAA has east wind near 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with bay waters going from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers and thunderstorms stays in the forecast for all three zones. If a storm sets up near you, the wind and sea state can jump fast.

thursday outlook

Thursday is still a fishable day, but it is not a lazy one.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to near 15 knots. Seas run around 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters becoming a moderate chop. That is fine for a reef trip with a crew that understands the boat is going to move around some.

The Straits are the rougher call. East wind near 15 knots, seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, and wave detail east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is not a no-go by itself, but I would want a good reason to run outside. Birds, weed, bait, color, current, something real. Empty blue water does not get prettier just because you paid for more fuel.

Florida Bay gets east wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to near 15 knots, with bay waters building from a light to moderate chop to a moderate chop. The bay water was already hot this morning, so I would not make a full day out of stubborn flats fishing unless the tide and cloud cover help.

Best plan for Thursday is reef first. Davis, Crocker, Conch, and Alligator all stay on the board. Yellowtail should still be the main target if the current has shape. Muttons are a fair deeper edge play. Mangroves get better if the clouds hang around. Offshore mahi is a maybe, not a promise.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:45 PM EDT Wednesday, August 5, 2026. NOAA warned that higher winds and seas should be expected near thunderstorm activity.