Captain's log, August 6, 2026, east wind, caution flags, stormy reef water

Thursday, August 6. NOAA Key West put out the 10:30 AM coastal waters forecast, and the midday read is a little more pushy than the earlier Thursday outlook we had on deck last night.

The main change is wind. The earlier outlook had the reef line mostly east 10 to 15 knots, increasing near 15 knots. The midday package now carries east to southeast wind 15 to 20 knots for Florida Bay, Hawk Channel, and the Straits this afternoon. NOAA has small craft caution wording up across the Keys waters.

That does not make it unfishable. It does make it a working captain’s day, not a lazy one.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA’s 10:30 AM update keeps the Atlantic ridge in charge, with gentle to moderate easterly breeze through the rest of the week and into early next week. The line that matters is the wind swing. NOAA expects lulls during the day and surges overnight, and periodic cautions cannot be ruled out.

For Hawk Channel, the afternoon call is east to southeast wind 15 to 20 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and choppy nearshore waters. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Compared with the earlier Thursday outlook, the seas are still in the same general 2 to 3 foot range, but the wind has stepped up into a clearer caution setup.

The Straits are not the place to go wandering without a reason. NOAA has east to southeast wind 15 to 20 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and wave detail of east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is actually lower on the top end than the earlier outlook’s 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, but the steady 15 to 20 knot breeze and storm chances make it a short-period grind. Birds, weed, color, or current need to earn the outside run.

Florida Bay is choppy too. NOAA has east to southeast wind 15 to 20 knots with choppy bay waters this afternoon. That is a bigger wind call than the earlier east 10 to 15 knots setup, and it will make the shallow-water side feel busy even before any shower gets involved.

The weather is still the wild card. Rain and thunder chances stay elevated through the end of the work week, and NOAA warns that higher winds and seas should be expected around stronger showers and thunderstorms. If a cell builds over the reef line, the forecast number is no longer the number under your boat.

the fishing call

I would keep this one reef-first and honest. Davis, Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Molasses can still fish, but the anchor set matters and the crew needs to be ready for a choppy ride. Yellowtail remain the main target if the chum line stretches right. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Mangroves and cero mackerel get a look when bait and current line up.

Offshore mahi is a maybe, not a sales pitch. The Gulf Stream edge note is unchanged from NOAA’s July 31 read, with the shoreward edge 5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close enough to respect. Not enough to justify running past working reef water into empty blue chop.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

NOAA Key West issued the 4:51 PM coastal waters forecast, and the afternoon did not exactly lay down. The caution wording from midday eased out of the main copy, but the water still has that east-wind chop that keeps everybody honest.

The afternoon recap is pretty simple. Reef-first was still the right call. Hawk Channel and the reef line had enough wind on them to make anchoring and chum work a little fussy, but not enough to shut the day down by itself. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Molasses were the kind of places I would want to work before gambling on a long outside ride. Yellowtail stayed the cleanest bet, with muttons and mangroves worth a look if the current gave you something to fish.

Tonight, NOAA has northeast to east wind near 15 knots in Hawk Channel, seas 2 to 3 feet, moderate chop nearshore, and showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. The Straits are east near 15 knots with seas around 3 feet and wave detail of east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is not scary on paper, but it is short-period water. Add a storm cell and it gets rude fast.

Friday looks a little more forgiving if the weather behaves. Hawk Channel is forecast east to southeast near 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to around 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from moderate chop to light chop. The Straits are east to southeast near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas around 2 feet after they settle. NOAA still keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms, so radar stays part of the tackle box.

For tomorrow, I would not overthink it. Start with the reef and keep the sky in the corner of your eye. Make the offshore call only if the signs are worth the fuel. The Gulf Stream edge note is still the July 31 read, 5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close enough to tempt you, not clean enough to chase blind.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:30 AM EDT and updated 4:51 PM EDT Thursday, August 6, 2026. Forecast pulled from the National Data Buoy Center Thursday evening.