Captain's log, August 7, 2026, easterly breeze, two foot reef water, watch the storms

Friday, August 7. NOAA Key West issued a corrected coastal waters forecast at 4:44 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line gets a workable east wind with weather still hanging around.

The Atlantic ridge is holding across northern Florida and the Gulf coast. That keeps the breeze mostly east, with the usual Keys pattern of daytime lulls and overnight bumps. NOAA also keeps rain and thunder chances elevated today into tonight. So the water is not bad on paper, but radar still gets a vote.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots this morning, becoming east to southeast near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters run light to moderate chop early, then light chop.

For the Straits, NOAA has east winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east to southeast near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. Not slick calm. Not ugly either. Just enough east in it to make the anchor set matter.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	northeast to east 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast near 10 knots in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	1 to 2 foot seas, light to moderate chop easing to light chop
Straits	2 to 3 foot seas subsiding around 2 feet, east 3 feet at 5 seconds
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 86.4 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of July 31
Overall call	good reef day if current shows, fair offshore look, poor plan if storms stack up

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the easier lane today. The forecast starts northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots, then backs off toward east to southeast near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet.

That is plenty fishable for half-day reef work. The ride should be honest but manageable, especially once the breeze drops a little. The morning may have just enough chop to keep loose gear moving around and just enough wind to make a bad anchor drop obvious.

straits of florida

The Straits are a little more boat-dependent. NOAA has 2 to 3 foot seas early, dropping around 2 feet, with an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is short-period water. A good crew can work in it. A tired crew will feel it.

The Gulf Stream edge from the July 31 NOAA note is close to the reef line, 5 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close water is worth watching. It is not a reason to run blind through sloppy patches if the reef bite is already talking.

florida bay

Florida Bay is not the focus for a reef report, but it matters for the morning read. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 86.4 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is cooler than the nasty late-July heat spike, but still warm enough that flats and bay work need moving water.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon get their best shot around tide movement and lower light. Midday dead water is where enthusiasm goes to sit down.

tides for friday, august 7

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, Hawk Channel gives the cleaner ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	3:34 AM EDT	1.46 ft	overnight high
Low	10:33 AM EDT	0.00 ft	late morning low
High	4:44 PM EDT	1.54 ft	afternoon high
Low	11:11 PM EDT	0.20 ft	late low

Upper Matecumbe Key, Hawk Channel is another close reef-side station.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	4:01 AM EDT	1.96 ft	early high
Low	10:31 AM EDT	-0.01 ft	late morning low
High	5:11 PM EDT	2.06 ft	evening high
Low	11:09 PM EDT	0.67 ft	late low

The morning is falling toward low water. That can still fish if the current runs clean, but if the chum line hangs under the boat, move. The better shape may be the incoming water into the afternoon high, assuming the thunderstorms do not step on it.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the best outside-water note because the Gulf Stream edge is listed 2 NM southeast of the light. With east wind and a short 5-second sea, I would fish it only if the set looks right. Yellowtail should be the first bet. Muttons get a look on the deeper side if the current has direction.

conch reef

Conch should fish fair to good in this setup. The morning chop is manageable, and the afternoon easing helps. Work the ledges and do not marry the first number if the slick goes soft.

davis reef

Davis is a good practical call today. It gives you reef water without needing to prove a point in the Straits. Yellowtail, mangroves, and cero mackerel all make sense here if bait shows and the current stretches.

crocker reef

Crocker is in the same bucket as Davis, a solid reef stop when the wind is not laying flat but also not beating everybody up. I would look for yellowtail first, then slide deeper if the mutton bite has signs.

alligator reef

Alligator has that close Gulf Stream edge, 5 NM southeast of the light. That can help, especially if the blue water is pushing near the outside edge. It can also tempt people into running past fish. Start with the reef. Earn the offshore move.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but it may feel a little more exposed as the day develops. The same rule applies. Get a good anchor set, watch the sky, and be ready to reset if the current dies near low water.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the cleanest reef target today. East wind, 1 to 2 feet in Hawk Channel, and a falling-then-rising tide gives enough water movement to work with if the chum line behaves.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure and lower-light windows. Cero mackerel are worth watching for in the slick if bait is getting pushed.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, but I would not sell the day around them. The Straits are 2 to 3 feet early with short period, and thunderstorms can make that number irrelevant fast. If birds, weed, current edge, or color change show close, take a look. If the reef is paying, keep cashing the reef.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West put out the 10:37 AM EDT coastal waters forecast, and the main call has not moved much from this morning. The reef line still gets northeast to east wind 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, becoming east to southeast near 10 knots. Hawk Channel stays at 1 to 2 feet, with the nearshore chop easing from light to moderate down to light.

The Straits are holding the same basic shape too. East wind 10 to 15 knots becomes east to southeast near 10 knots, and seas are still 2 to 3 feet, subsiding around 2 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is still short-period water, so it may look better on the forecast than it feels in a smaller boat.

The real watch item is tonight. NOAA keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms today into tonight, with higher wind and seas near stronger cells. Hawk Channel is forecast to build to around 2 feet tonight as east to southeast wind increases to 10 to 15 knots, and the nearshore waters go from light chop to moderate chop. In the Straits, seas build back to 2 to 3 feet tonight.

So the midday read is simple. The afternoon window is still fishable if the radar gives you room, especially on the reef. I would not get lazy about the sky, and I would not count on the ride home staying as soft as the middle of the day.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West posted the 4:55 PM EDT coastal waters forecast, and the afternoon did not turn into a surprise. The pattern stayed honest. Gentle to moderate easterly breeze, daytime lulls, overnight bumps, and thunderstorms still the thing that can change the whole ride in ten minutes.

For tonight, Hawk Channel has east to southeast wind near 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas build to around 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from light chop to moderate chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. That is fishable water for a careful evening move, but not a night to ignore the radar just because the dock feels calm.

The Straits get a little more punch. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots, seas building to 2 to 3 feet, and wave detail east to southeast 3 feet at 4 seconds. Four seconds is tight water. It is not a big sea, but it can slap you around.

The Gulf Stream edge update is worth noting. As of August 7, NOAA puts it 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps clean water close to the Islamorada line. Good news if the outside edge has life. Bad idea if storms are stacking up and you try to force an offshore plan.

saturday outlook

Saturday still looks workable, with the same east to southeast setup. Hawk Channel starts near 15 knots, then drops near 10 knots. Seas run 2 to 3 feet early, then fall to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from moderate chop to light chop. That is a decent reef window if the morning storms give us room.

In the Straits, Saturday stays east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots with 2 to 3 foot seas. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. I would call that fair for offshore, good enough for a look close to the reef edge, but not pretty enough to go wandering without signs.

The best plan for tomorrow is simple. Start with the reef. Watch the sky. If the chum line stretches and the yellowtail show, stay put and make dinner. If the water outside Alligator or Molasses has birds, weed, or a clean color edge close by, take the shot without getting greedy.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY corrected at 4:44 AM EDT, updated at 10:37 AM EDT, and updated again at 4:55 PM EDT Friday, August 7, 2026. Gulf Stream edge from the August 7 NOAA Key West forecast. Tide predictions from NOAA CO-OPS for Whale Harbor, Windley Key, Hawk Channel and Upper Matecumbe Key, Hawk Channel. Water temperature from NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key, Florida Bay at 5:54 AM EDT.