Captain's log, August 8, 2026, east breeze, two foot reef water, storms early

Saturday, August 8. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:27 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets another workable east to southeast setup.

The Atlantic high is parked off the mid Atlantic coast, with a ridge stretched across northern Florida and the Gulf coast. That keeps the Keys in mostly easterly breeze through the weekend and into early next week. NOAA expects the wind to lull during the day and bump up overnight. That part matters if you are planning a long afternoon and assuming the ride home will stay soft.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots this morning, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters run light to moderate chop early, then light chop.

For the Straits, NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with wave detail east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. There is a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly early.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. The water is fishable. It is not flat calm, and the short period in the Straits will still feel snappy in a smaller boat.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, easing near 10 knots
Hawk Channel	1 to 2 foot seas, light to moderate chop becoming light chop
Straits	2 to 3 foot seas, east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds
Rain	chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly early
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 87.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Buoy read	41122 southeast of Key Largo, 2.0 feet at 3 seconds at 5:30 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 7
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look, poor plan if storms build

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest working lane today. The wind starts east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots, then backs down near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore chop easing as the day settles.

That is a good reef setup for a crew that can anchor clean and pay attention. Not sloppy enough to scare off the day. Not calm enough to sleepwalk through the drift or the set.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable but short. NOAA has 2 to 3 feet with an east to southeast 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. Buoy 41122 was showing 0.6 meters, about 2.0 feet, at 3 seconds at 5:30 AM EDT, with water temperature at 86.4 F.

That is not big water, but it is close together. If you go outside, have a reason. Birds, weed, a color edge, current, or a bite report. Wandering around in short chop is how fuel disappears.

florida bay

Florida Bay is not the main show for this report, but it still tells us about heat. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 87.8 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is warm before the sun gets high.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but the flats need moving water and lower light. Midday dead water in August is where good plans go to sweat.

tides for saturday, august 8

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	4:54 AM EDT	1.35 ft	early high
Low	11:50 AM EDT	-0.05 ft	late morning low
High	6:02 PM EDT	1.45 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	12:38 AM EDT	0.25 ft	overnight low
High	6:29 AM EDT	0.73 ft	morning high
Low	3:22 PM EDT	-0.02 ft	afternoon low
High	9:04 PM EDT	0.33 ft	late high

For the reef, the fall toward the 11:50 AM Whale Harbor low is the first real window. If the current stretches the chum line, work it. If it hangs under the boat, do not turn stubborn. The afternoon rise toward 6:02 PM can give a cleaner second shot if the storms stay away.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets help from the Gulf Stream edge sitting 2 NM southeast of the light. That can put clean water close to the outside edge. With east to southeast wind and a short Straits sea, I would start with yellowtail and keep one deeper bait honest for a mutton.

conch reef

Conch should be fair to good if the current has shape. It is a good place to work the reef line without betting the whole day on an offshore run. Yellowtail are the main target. Cero mackerel are worth watching for if bait stacks up in the slick.

davis reef

Davis is a practical call today. The Hawk Channel forecast keeps the run manageable, and the reef should have enough movement around the tide fall to fish. Mangroves can be in the mix around structure, especially if the water has a little stain and life on it.

crocker reef

Crocker is in the same lane as Davis, a solid reef stop when the wind is not laying down but the day is still very fishable. I would not waste much time on a soft current here. Reset, slide, or go deeper if the bite does not answer.

alligator reef

Alligator has the Gulf Stream edge 4 NM southeast of the light as of the August 7 NOAA note. That is close enough to matter. Start on the reef, then look outside only if the signs are there. The Straits are not bad, but 3 feet at 5 seconds is still work.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should fish fair today, with the same east to southeast push and 1 to 2 foot Hawk Channel water. It may feel a little more open depending on where the breeze sits. Get the anchor right, watch the sky, and do not let a dying current eat the whole morning.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the cleanest bet. The reef has enough breeze and water movement to make a chum line work, and the late morning low gives a clear tide mark to fish around.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Cero mackerel are fair if bait is present and the slick has speed.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, but I would not sell the day around them. The Gulf Stream edge is close near Alligator and Molasses, which is good news. The sea state is short, which is the price of admission. If the signs show close, take a look. If the reef is paying, stay there and fill the box.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early or late targets today. Vaca Key water at 87.8 F before 6 AM says the flats need timing. Moving tide, shade lines, deeper edges. Do not ask hot slack water to do you favors.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:40 AM EDT. The afternoon did not change much from the morning report, which is good to see. Hawk Channel is still east to southeast near 10 knots with 1 to 2 foot seas and light chop. The Straits are still 2 to 3 feet, with east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing near 10 knots and a 3 foot east to southeast wave at 5 seconds.

The part to watch is tonight. NOAA now has east winds increasing near 15 knots across Hawk Channel, with seas 2 to 3 feet and nearshore waters becoming a moderate chop. Florida Bay also bumps from a light chop this afternoon to a moderate chop tonight. The Straits stay 2 to 3 feet tonight, but the breeze goes east near 15 knots.

So the day is still fishable. Reef crews get the better lane, especially if the sky behaves around the afternoon tide rise. But do not treat sunset like the same water you had at lunch. The breeze is expected to come up after dark, and NOAA is already saying periodic cautions cannot be ruled out for portions of the Keys waters early next week.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West issued the 4:30 PM coastal waters forecast, and the evening read stayed on the same track. The Atlantic ridge is still stretched across northern Florida and the Gulf coast, so we keep the mostly easterly breeze. The pattern is the usual August one, lulls during the day and a harder push overnight.

The afternoon was still a reef-first kind of day. Hawk Channel gave the better working lane than the open Straits, especially for yellowtail crews that could get the anchor right and keep the chum line moving. The outside was fishable, but short. Two to 3 feet at 5 seconds does not sound dramatic until you spend a few hours riding it for no good reason.

Tonight, Hawk Channel has east wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop to a moderate chop. The Straits have east wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to near 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and wave detail east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Florida Bay also builds from light to moderate chop into moderate chop. NOAA keeps a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Sunday still looks workable, but not slick. Hawk Channel gets east to southeast wind near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots, with 2 to 3 foot seas and nearshore waters easing from moderate chop to light to moderate chop. The Straits get east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and wave detail east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Florida Bay runs east to southeast near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

My call for tomorrow is reef first again. Molasses and Alligator still get attention because NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge close, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light and 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of August 7. But make the water show you something before you leave biting reef fish. Birds, bait, weed, color, or current. Empty blue water in short chop is just a fuel bill.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:27 AM EDT, updated 10:40 AM EDT, and updated again at 4:30 PM EDT Saturday, August 8, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA NDBC buoy 41122 observation at 5:30 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 7, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.