Captain's log, August 9, 2026, reef first, short east sea, hotter bay water

Sunday, August 9. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:32 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets a fishable reef morning with a little bite in the water.

The Atlantic high is sitting off the Carolina coast and stretching a ridge across northern Florida into the Gulf coast. That keeps the Keys in mostly easterly breeze through the start of the week. NOAA expects the usual summer rhythm, a little softer during the day and stronger overnight. Tonight is the part to respect, because marine cautions may be needed for portions of the waters.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 15 knots this morning, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters start with a moderate chop, then settle into light to moderate chop.

For the Straits, NOAA has east wind near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with wave detail east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is not giant water. It is short water, and short water makes you earn it.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs are all in play. I would treat today as reef first. If the outside edge shows birds or clean water close, take a look. If the yellowtail are chewing, do not leave fish to go burn fuel in chop.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 15 knots, easing to 10 to 15 knots in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 foot seas, moderate chop easing light to moderate
Straits	2 to 3 foot seas, east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds
Tonight	Straits building 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet
Rain	chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Buoy read	41122 southeast of Key Largo, 2.6 feet at 4 seconds at 5:30 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 7
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look, poor plan after dark without a reason

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the better working lane today. Two to 3 feet is not slick, but the forecast has the wind easing from near 15 knots down to 10 to 15. That gives reef crews a usable window if the sky behaves and the anchor set is clean.

The chop will still push the boat around. Keep the spread tight, keep the chum working, and do not let the first bad set ruin the morning. If the current lays wrong, move. August reef fishing rewards stubborn effort, not stubborn location.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable, but I would not call them comfortable. NOAA has 2 to 3 feet with an east to southeast 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. Buoy 41122 southeast of Key Largo reported 0.8 meters, about 2.6 feet, at 4 seconds at 5:30 AM EDT. Water temperature there was 30.4 C, about 86.7 F.

That is the kind of sea that looks manageable on paper and then gets old after the third missed weed line. If you go outside, go because the water is showing you something. Birds, bait, weed, color, current. Wandering does not pay just because the Gulf Stream is close.

florida bay

Florida Bay is hot. Vaca Key reported 88.5 F water at 5:54 AM EDT, and it was warmer overnight before sunrise. That is a summer number, plain and simple.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but the window is narrow. Moving water matters. Lower light matters. Midday slack water in 88 degree bay water is not where I would spend my best effort.

tides for sunday, august 9

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	12:26 AM EDT	0.34 ft	overnight low
High	6:05 AM EDT	1.40 ft	early high
Low	12:54 PM EDT	-0.11 ft	midday low
High	7:06 PM EDT	1.52 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	1:51 AM EDT	0.25 ft	overnight low
High	7:43 AM EDT	0.77 ft	morning high
Low	4:26 PM EDT	-0.05 ft	afternoon low
High	9:57 PM EDT	0.36 ft	late high

For the reef, the fall toward the 12:54 PM Whale Harbor low is the first real piece of the day. If the current stretches the chum line, fish it hard. The evening rise toward 7:06 PM has potential, but NOAA is already building the breeze and seas tonight. Do not let a good tide talk you into a bad ride.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the best clean-water note again because NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 2 NM southeast of the light. That does not mean every patch is perfect. It does mean the outside edge deserves a look if the current is right.

Yellowtail snapper are the main play. Keep one deeper bait honest for a mutton, especially if the water has a little push and the smaller fish are not wrecking every bait.

conch reef

Conch should fish fair to good. The east sea will put some chop on the setup, but it is not enough to write the reef off. I would start with yellowtail and watch for cero mackerel if bait gets nervous in the slick.

If the current dies near low water, do not sit there donating chum. Slide, reset, or change depth.

davis reef

Davis is a practical call today. It gives you reef structure without making the whole trip about the open Straits. Mangrove snapper can be in the mix around the right structure, especially with shade, tide, and enough flow to pull scent off the boat.

This is not a lazy anchor day. Get set right or keep moving.

crocker reef

Crocker should be fishable in the same 2 to 3 foot Hawk Channel water. Yellowtail are the cleanest bet, with muttons worth a deeper look if the current lines up.

The mistake here is waiting too long on dead water. A slow bite and a dead current are two different things.

alligator reef

Alligator has the Gulf Stream edge 4 NM southeast of the light as of the August 7 NOAA note. That is close enough to matter. It is also close enough to tempt people into leaving a working reef bite too early.

Start on the reef. If the outside edge has life, then go. If it is just blue water with no signs, come back inside before the afternoon gets away from you.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should fish fair today. It may feel a little more exposed depending on where the breeze sits, but the forecast still keeps it workable for a crew that pays attention.

The midday low can either help or stall things. Let the chum line tell you which one you have.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the cleanest reef target today. There is enough wind and current potential to make the chum line work, and the falling water into midday gives the morning a clear shape.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks up and the slick has speed.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, but I would not sell the day around them. The Gulf Stream edge is close near Molasses and Alligator, which helps. The Straits are still short, and tonight gets rougher. Take the shot only if the water shows signs close enough to make sense.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early or late targets with moving water. The bay is too hot to waste time on slack water. Fish the edges, shade, and tide, then get out of the heat before it cooks the plan.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:36 AM EDT. The shape of the day did not change much, but the overnight push looks a little more serious.

For Hawk Channel this afternoon, NOAA still has east to southeast wind near 15 knots, then easing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas stay 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters go from moderate chop to light to moderate chop. That keeps the reef plan alive, especially if you are already set up and the chum line is working.

For the Straits this afternoon, NOAA has east wind near 15 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and an east to southeast 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. Same short-period stuff from the morning read. It is fishable, but it is not soft.

Tonight is the change to keep in your head. NOAA now has east wind increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the evening, with Straits seas building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Hawk Channel also gets choppy tonight, with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. That is the line between a smart afternoon and a dumb ride home.

So the call stays reef first. Work the pieces close to home, watch the sky, and do not let the evening tide talk you into staying too long outside.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West issued the 4:26 PM coastal waters forecast, and the evening read is the one we expected. The ridge is building in, the breeze is still east to southeast, and tonight gets a little sharper before Monday backs off.

The afternoon stayed in the reef-first lane. Hawk Channel was the smarter working water compared with grinding around the open Straits, especially for yellowtail crews that could get the chum line stretched and keep the boat sitting right. The outside still had a shot if you found birds, bait, weed, color, or current close to the reef edge. But blind running in short east sea was not the good bet.

Tonight, NOAA has a small craft caution up for Hawk Channel and the Straits. Hawk Channel gets east to southeast wind near 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas build from 1 to 3 feet to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with nearshore waters becoming choppy. The Straits get east wind near 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots, with seas building from 2 to 3 feet to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail is east 4 feet at 5 seconds. There is a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday looks fishable, but not flat. Hawk Channel has east to southeast wind near 15 knots early, easing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet and nearshore waters going from moderate chop to light to moderate chop. The Straits hold east wind near 15 knots with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, and wave detail east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds.

So tomorrow is still a reef day first. Molasses and Alligator keep my attention with the Gulf Stream edge close, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light and 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of August 7. Take the outside look only if the water earns it. Otherwise, save the fuel, fish the reef, and let the snapper do the talking.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:32 AM EDT, updated 10:36 AM EDT, and updated again at 4:26 PM EDT Sunday, August 9, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA NDBC buoy 41122 observation at 5:30 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 7, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.