Captain's log, August 10, 2026, reef first, short east sea, close Gulf Stream edge

Monday, August 10. NOAA Key West put out the coastal waters forecast at 4:26 AM EDT, and the Islamorada call is pretty simple. Fish the reef first and do not pretend the open Straits are flat just because the wind is easing later.

The ridge over northern Florida is sliding south toward Central and South Florida. That keeps us in east to southeast breeze this morning, then a little softer as the day goes on. Late week looks like the wind picks back up some as the ridge lifts north again and a broad low-level trough moves west across the area.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters start as a moderate chop and ease to light to moderate chop.

For the Straits, NOAA has a small craft caution until winds decrease. East to southeast wind runs 15 to 20 knots early, then drops to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds.

That is short-period water. Not huge. Not gentle either.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs are all fishable for crews that set up right and keep an eye on the sky. If you are thinking outside, make it prove itself first. Birds, weed, bait, color, current. Otherwise, the reef is the better use of the morning.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 15 knots in Hawk Channel, easing 10 to 15 knots
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 foot seas, moderate chop easing light to moderate
Straits	3 to 5 feet early, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet
Wave detail	east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds in the Straits
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 87.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Buoy read	41122 southeast of Key Largo, 2.6 feet at 5 seconds at 5:30 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 7
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look, poor plan for blind running

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the working water today. Two to 3 feet with east to southeast wind near 15 knots is not a postcard ride, but it is a manageable reef setup if the current gives you a clean chum line.

The forecast improves as the wind backs down into the 10 to 15 knot range. That matters. It should take some edge off the chop and make the ride between reef spots less of a beating.

Still, do not get lazy on the anchor. In this kind of water, a sloppy set turns into a day of redoing everything. Get the boat sitting right, keep the chum steady, and make the fish come to you.

straits of florida

The Straits start out sporty. NOAA has 3 to 5 feet early with that east to southeast 4 foot wave at 5 seconds, then seas settle to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.

Buoy 41122 southeast of Key Largo reported 0.8 meters at 5 seconds at 5:30 AM EDT. That works out to about 2.6 feet. Water temperature at the buoy was 30.3 C, about 86.5 F.

That buoy is north of our usual Islamorada run, but it confirms the short east sea. If you go looking outside, do it with a reason. The Gulf Stream edge is close near Molasses and Alligator, which can make something happen, but it does not make a blind fuel burn smart.

florida bay

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 87.3 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot bay water, even before the sun really gets on it.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but I would not waste the clean part of the day on dead slack. Moving water and low light matter. If the bay plan misses that window, it gets thin fast.

tides for monday, august 10

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	1:28 AM EDT	0.25 ft	overnight low
High	7:12 AM EDT	1.49 ft	morning high
Low	1:54 PM EDT	-0.17 ft	early afternoon low
High	8:03 PM EDT	1.61 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	3:05 AM EDT	0.23 ft	overnight low
High	8:51 AM EDT	0.82 ft	morning high
Low	5:19 PM EDT	-0.05 ft	afternoon low
High	10:39 PM EDT	0.41 ft	late high

For the reef, the fall from the 7:12 AM Whale Harbor high toward the 1:54 PM low is the first real piece. If the current stretches and the chum line behaves, stay with it. If it goes dead, move before the heat and short sea eat up the day.

The evening rise has a nice height on paper. I would rather use it close to home than make a long outside gamble.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses is one of the better calls today because the Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of the August 7 NOAA note. That is close enough to keep the outside edge interesting.

Yellowtail snapper are the main target. If the current has enough push, get the chum working and keep the baits natural. A deeper bait is worth soaking for mutton snapper, especially if the smaller fish are picking too hard up top.

conch reef

Conch should fish fair to good in the same 2 to 3 foot Hawk Channel water. The east sea may make the setup a little fussy, but there is enough breeze and tide to work with.

I would start with yellowtail and keep an eye out for cero mackerel in the slick. If the bait gets nervous, do not ignore it.

davis reef

Davis is a practical, close-to-home reef play today. It keeps you out of the worst of the Straits while still giving you enough structure to make something happen.

Mangrove snapper are fair around the right bottom. Muttons are fair if the current gets honest and you can keep a deeper bait away from the junk.

crocker reef

Crocker should be workable, but it needs a clean anchor set. Short east sea can make this reef feel sloppy if the boat swings wrong.

Yellowtail are the cleanest bet. Do not confuse a slow bite with a bad spot too quickly, but do not sit on dead water either. There is a difference.

alligator reef

Alligator has the Gulf Stream edge 4 NM southeast of the light as of August 7. That puts it in the conversation for an outside look if the water shows life close by.

The reef itself still comes first. Yellowtail and mutton snapper are the smarter base plan. If the edge has birds or a hard color change, then go take a look. If it is just lumpy blue water, save the fuel.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should fish fair today. It may feel a little more exposed depending on the exact wind angle, but the forecast does not shut it down.

Work the falling tide and keep the chum line steady. If the current stalls near the early afternoon low, do not spend the whole day hoping it fixes itself.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best reef target today. The breeze, chop, and falling tide can all help if the chum line sets up right.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks up in the slick.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, especially with the Gulf Stream edge close near Molasses and Alligator. I would not sell the day around them. The Straits start rough enough that the outside run needs visible signs, not hope.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early and late targets with moving water. The bay is hot. Fish the tide, fish shade where it matters, and do not grind slack water at noon like it owes you money.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:58 AM EDT. The big change is not a full flip, it is more of the same day settling in. The morning small craft caution language is gone from the Straits section, and the wind call came down from 15 to 20 knots early to east to southeast near 15 knots early, then 10 to 15 knots this afternoon.

Hawk Channel is still not slick. NOAA now has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with seas around 3 feet and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. This morning it was near 15 knots easing 10 to 15 with 2 to 3 foot seas, so the breeze is a touch softer but the channel still has enough east sea to make a sloppy anchor set miserable.

The Straits are still the tougher ride. NOAA has seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail stayed east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. That is still short-period water. Better than the early push, but not the kind of water I would run blind just because the caution wording dropped off.

So the call stays about the same. Reef first. Outside only if the water gives you a real reason, birds, weed, bait, or a hard edge close enough to make sense. The Gulf Stream note is unchanged from August 7, with the edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West issued the 4:25 PM coastal waters forecast, and the evening read is better than the morning ride, but it is not flat water. The ridge over northern Florida is sliding south into Central and South Florida, and that keeps the Keys in an east breeze that should keep backing down through midweek.

The afternoon stayed reef first. Hawk Channel was still the better working water, with enough chop to punish a bad anchor set but not enough to shut down a clean yellowtail program. The Straits were still short-period water. If a crew found birds, weed, bait, color, or current close to the reef edge, it was worth a look. Blind running was still the wrong kind of confidence.

Tonight, NOAA has Hawk Channel at east winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. The Straits are east winds near 15 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east 4 feet at 5 seconds. There is no small craft caution in the 4:25 PM read, but that 5 second sea is still a short ride.

Tuesday looks fishable and a little easier. Hawk Channel has east winds 10 to 15 knots early, decreasing to near 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet and nearshore waters going from light to moderate chop to light chop. The Straits have east winds near 15 knots early, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail drops to east 3 feet at 5 seconds.

So tomorrow is still a reef day first. Molasses and Alligator keep my attention because the Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light and 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of August 7. Take the outside look only if the water gives you signs close enough to make sense. Otherwise, fish the reef, keep the chum steady, and make the day close to home.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT Monday, August 10, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA NDBC buoy 41122 observation at 5:30 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 7, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.

Midday source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:58 AM EDT Monday, August 10, 2026.

Evening source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:25 PM EDT Monday, August 10, 2026.