Captain's log, August 11, 2026, lighter breeze, reef first, hot bay water

Tuesday, August 11. NOAA Key West put the coastal waters forecast out at 4:20 AM EDT, and the day looks workable if you keep the plan honest.

The ridge across Central Florida is sliding south into Central and South Florida and weakening over the next couple days. That takes some teeth out of the breeze. We still have east wind on the ocean side this morning, but it trends lighter through the day and into midweek. Late week, NOAA expects the breeze to freshen again as the ridge lifts back north and a broad lower level trough moves west across the area.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet. Nearshore waters start as a light to moderate chop, then ease to a light chop.

For the Straits, NOAA has east wind near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east 4 feet at 5 seconds.

That is a short east sea. Better than a hard blow, but still not slick. The reef is the first call. Outside can work if there is a real sign close to the edge, not just a good feeling and a full fuel tank.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east 10 to 15 knots in Hawk Channel, easing near 10 knots
Hawk Channel	2 to 3 foot seas, subsiding around 2 feet
Straits	2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet
Wave detail	east 4 feet at 5 seconds in the Straits
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Buoy read	41122 southeast of Key Largo, 1.6 feet at 4 seconds at 2:00 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 7
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look, poor blind run

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the working lane today. East wind 10 to 15 knots early, then near 10 knots later, is a decent setup for the reef as long as the current behaves.

Two to 3 feet dropping around 2 feet should make the ride and anchor work easier as the day goes on. It will still have some chop on top. Get the boat sitting right before you start judging the bite.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs are all in play. I would rather grind a clean reef current than bounce around outside without seeing birds, weed, bait, or a defined color change.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable, but they are not free. NOAA has east wind near 15 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The wave detail is east 4 feet at 5 seconds.

Buoy 41122 southeast of Key Largo reported 1.6 feet at 4 seconds at 2:00 AM EDT. Water temperature there was 86.7 F. That buoy is northeast of the usual Islamorada run, but it backs up the short-period east sea in the forecast.

The Gulf Stream edge is close on paper, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light and 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of the August 7 NOAA note. Close edge does not mean automatic fish. It means you look with your eyes open and come back to the reef if the ocean is not showing life.

florida bay

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 88.0 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is summer-hot water.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon still have windows, but they get picky when the bay heats up. Fish moving water. Early and late matter more than pretending noon slack is going to turn friendly.

tides for tuesday, august 11

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	2:26 AM EDT	0.14 ft	overnight low
High	8:12 AM EDT	1.58 ft	morning high
Low	2:50 PM EDT	-0.21 ft	afternoon low
High	8:54 PM EDT	1.68 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	4:12 AM EDT	0.20 ft	early low
High	9:52 AM EDT	0.85 ft	morning high
Low	6:04 PM EDT	-0.04 ft	evening low
High	11:16 PM EDT	0.46 ft	late high

For the reef, the fall from the 8:12 AM Whale Harbor high toward the 2:50 PM low is the first stretch I want to watch. If it pulls clean, stay with it. If it dies, do not sit there counting minnows and calling it fishing.

The evening rise has enough water on paper to give close reef and bridge area plans a look, especially once the heat starts backing off.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses gets the best outside-adjacent look today because the Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 7. That keeps blue water close enough to matter.

The reef itself is still the base plan. Yellowtail snapper should be the first target with steady chum and natural baits. A deeper bait is worth keeping down for mutton snapper if the current is not ripping sideways.

conch reef

Conch should fish good if the easing breeze lines up with a clean tide. The 2 to 3 foot Hawk Channel sea is manageable, especially later in the day.

Start with yellowtail. Keep a pitch bait ready if bait showers in the slick. Cero mackerel can slide through fast in this kind of water.

davis reef

Davis is a practical call when you want structure without making a whole production out of the run. It should be fair to good for snapper if the water has enough movement.

Mangrove snapper are fair around the right bottom. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. If the small fish are chewing everything apart, change size and depth before you blame the reef.

crocker reef

Crocker should be workable today, but it needs a clean set. Short east chop can make the boat wander if the anchor job is lazy.

Yellowtail are the main play. If the current is right, give it time. If the chum line goes sideways or dead, move while there is still good tide left.

alligator reef

Alligator has a good setup on paper with the Gulf Stream edge 4 NM southeast of the light as of August 7. That makes it one of the better places to peek outside if the reef bite slows.

Do not skip the reef bite to chase a maybe. Yellowtail and mutton snapper are the smarter base plan. If you see birds, scattered weed, bait, or a hard edge close by, then go look.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should fish fair to good in the softer wind. It can still feel exposed depending on the angle, but the forecast does not shut it down.

Work the falling tide and keep the chum steady. If the current stalls near the afternoon low, tighten the plan instead of waiting for magic.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best reef target today. The wind is not too heavy, the chop is workable, and the falling tide gives the morning a real chance.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gets pushed into the slick.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, mostly because the Gulf Stream edge is close near Molasses and Alligator. I would not build the day around them unless the water shows something worth chasing.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early and late targets with moving water. The bay is 88.0 F, so shade, tide, and timing matter. Midday slack is a poor use of patience.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:20 AM EDT Tuesday, August 11, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA NDBC buoy 41122 observation at 2:00 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 7, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.