Captain's log, August 12, 2026, light reef wind, hot bay water, close Gulf Stream edge

Wednesday, August 12. NOAA Key West put the coastal waters forecast out at 4:26 AM EDT, and this is the kind of August morning where the reef deserves the first look.

The high in the central North Atlantic is sliding east and weakening through Thursday. That leaves gentle east to southeast breeze over the Keys, with some spots going light and variable in the afternoon. Late week and into the weekend, NOAA expects the breeze to freshen again as the high builds back west.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east wind 5 to 10 knots, decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop to smooth. That is a workable reef setup.

For the Straits, NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Not rough, but still a short east sea outside.

Buoy 41122 southeast of Key Largo reported 1.0 foot at 3 seconds at 5:30 AM EDT. Water temperature there was 87.8 F. Vaca Key, Florida Bay was hotter, 89.1 F at 5:54 AM EDT.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, lighter in Hawk Channel this afternoon
Hawk Channel	1 to 2 feet, subsiding around 1 foot
Straits	2 to 3 feet, subsiding around 2 feet
Wave detail	east 3 feet at 5 seconds in the Straits
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.1 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Buoy read	41122 southeast of Key Largo, 1.0 foot at 3 seconds at 5:30 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 7
Overall call	good reef day, fair edge look, poor midday bay plan

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is friendly enough today. East wind 5 to 10 knots early, then near 5 knots, gives you room to work a chum line without the boat fighting you all morning.

Seas 1 to 2 feet dropping around 1 foot should make Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs all reasonable calls. The deciding factor is not the ride today. It is current, water color, and whether the fish settle behind the boat.

I would start on the reef and make the fish tell me otherwise. If the yellowtail get right, stay put and make it count.

straits of florida

The Straits are worth a look, but they are not the first plan unless the ocean gives you a sign. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet easing around 2 feet, with an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds.

That five-second east sea is short enough to keep the ride honest. If there are birds, bait, weed, or a hard edge close to the reef line, go look. If it is just blue water and hope, the reef is the smarter place to burn time.

The Gulf Stream edge was close in the August 7 NOAA note, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light and 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. Close is useful. It is not a guarantee.

florida bay

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 89.1 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still feed, but this is not a lazy midday bay setup. Fish the moving water. Early shade matters. So does not sitting through slack water pretending patience is a strategy.

tides for wednesday, august 12

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	3:19 AM EDT	0.029 ft	overnight low
High	9:08 AM EDT	1.659 ft	morning high
Low	3:42 PM EDT	-0.220 ft	afternoon low
High	9:42 PM EDT	1.726 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	5:13 AM EDT	0.163 ft	early low
High	10:48 AM EDT	0.859 ft	late morning high
Low	6:44 PM EDT	-0.014 ft	evening low
High	11:51 PM EDT	0.524 ft	late high

For the reef, the fall from the 9:08 AM Whale Harbor high toward the 3:42 PM low is the main piece of day. If the water pulls clean, the snapper bite should have a fair shot. If it gets weak or dirty, move before the whole tide disappears.

The evening rise has enough water to make close reef and bridge plans interesting, but the heat will still be part of the story until the sun backs off.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses has the best outside-adjacent look again because the Gulf Stream edge was 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 7. That puts blue water close enough to matter if the surface shows life.

The reef is still the base plan. Yellowtail snapper should be the first target with steady chum and light tackle. Put a deeper bait down for mutton snapper if the current has enough push and the small fish are not tearing everything apart.

conch reef

Conch should fish good if the water is clean on the falling tide. The light wind makes it easier to set up right and stay quiet.

Yellowtail are the main play. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gets nervous in the slick. Keep a pitch bait handy, because the bite can go from sleepy to busy fast in this kind of weather.

davis reef

Davis is a practical stop today. It gives you structure without making a long run out of a morning that is already made for the reef.

Mangrove snapper are fair around the right bottom. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. If the water looks flat and dead, do not marry the spot.

crocker reef

Crocker should be workable with the softer wind. The setup needs current more than bravery today.

Start with yellowtail and adjust bait size before giving up. If the chum line hangs under the boat or slides wrong, reset. A pretty forecast does not fix a bad anchor job.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better reef-and-edge calls today. The Gulf Stream edge was 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of August 7, so a short look outside is reasonable if the reef slows down.

Yellowtail and mutton snapper are still the sensible base. Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, but I would want visible life before spending much of the day there.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should fish fair to good in this light pattern. It can still feel open depending on angle and current, but NOAA is not giving us a wind problem this morning.

Work the falling tide and keep the chum steady. If the bite is small, change depth. If the current stalls, tighten the plan and move with purpose.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best reef target today. Light wind, easing Hawk Channel seas, and a decent falling tide give them the cleanest path to the fish box.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Cero mackerel are fair if bait slides through the slick.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside because the Gulf Stream edge is close near Molasses and Alligator. Possible is not the same as promised. I would look only if the water is showing birds, weed, bait, or a real edge.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early and late targets with moving water. The bay water is 89.1 F, so the best window is before the flats cook.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT Wednesday, August 12, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA NDBC buoy 41122 observation at 5:30 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 7, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:30 AM EDT. The reef call got a little easier, not harder.

Hawk Channel came down to east wind near 5 knots this afternoon, seas around 1 foot, and smooth nearshore water. This morning NOAA had east wind 5 to 10 knots decreasing near 5, with seas 1 to 2 feet easing around 1. So the direction did not change much, but the working water on the reef is softer now.

The Straits did not change in any big way. NOAA still has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, seas around 2 feet, and wave detail of east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is still short enough to feel outside, but it is not a blowout. Look only if the water gives you birds, bait, weed, or a clean edge close to the reef line.

Florida Bay is light too, with east to southeast wind near 5 knots and smooth bay water. The problem there is still heat, not wind. Vaca Key was 89.1 F this morning, and that kind of water makes the middle of the day a narrow plan for bonefish, permit, and tarpon.

For tonight, NOAA keeps the breeze gentle. Hawk Channel goes east near 5 knots, becoming east to southeast and increasing to 5 to 10 knots, with seas around 1 foot. The Straits run east to southeast 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. There is still only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, but any cell that sits on you can make its own weather fast.

Midday source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:30 AM EDT Wednesday, August 12, 2026.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:32 PM EDT. The day stayed gentle, which is about all you can ask from August when the water is this warm.

The afternoon reef plan held up better than the outside gamble. Hawk Channel stayed in that soft lane, with light east to southeast breeze and around a foot of sea. That made the reef the honest work zone. Yellowtail and mutton plans had room to breathe if the current was right. The Straits were still fishable, but the better call was not to run blind just because the wind was light.

Tonight, NOAA has Hawk Channel at variable wind near 5 knots, becoming east to southeast and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, and nearshore waters go from smooth to smooth to a light chop. The Straits run east to southeast 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and an east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. There is still a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tomorrow looks like another workable reef morning. NOAA has Hawk Channel at east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are east wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, with the same east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds.

So the first call for Thursday is reef first again. Molasses, Conch, Alligator, and Tennessee all stay in play if the water is clean and the chum line has enough push. The outside edge can get a look if birds, bait, weed, or a hard color change show up close, but do not make a long religion out of it. Late week still points breezier, with Friday building toward east wind 10 to 15 knots and Straits seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.

Evening source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:32 PM EDT Wednesday, August 12, 2026.