Captain's log, August 13, 2026, light breeze, clean reef window, hot bay water

Thursday, August 13. NOAA Key West put out the coastal waters forecast at 4:11 AM EDT, and this is the kind of summer setup where the reef gets a real shot before the sky starts talking.

The wind is light. The bay is hot. The Straits are not laying down because of magic, they are laying down because the breeze backed off. That gives us a cleaner ride, but it also means you watch the clouds and do not get lazy just because the sea state looks kind.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east to southeast wind near 5 knots becoming variable. Seas are around 1 foot, with nearshore waters smooth. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

For the Straits, NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming variable. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. That is about as friendly as the outside water has looked lately, but summer storms can still turn a nice ride into work.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs are all in play today. I would fish the morning hard, keep the chum steady, and be ready to move if the current quits.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, becoming variable
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	1 to 2 feet
Wave detail	east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds in the Straits
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Buoy read	41122 southeast of Key Largo, seas 0.3 ft and water 87.3 F at 5:30 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 13
Overall call	good reef day, good outside look if the water shows life, poor plan for sitting still in hot slack water

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the easy working water today. East to southeast near 5 knots becoming variable, seas around 1 foot, smooth nearshore water. That is a green light for reef crews that can get out early and keep a clean chum line.

Light wind cuts both ways. The ride is better, but the boat can wander if the current is weak. Set up clean, give the fish a reason to gather, and do not spend half the morning adjusting the anchor.

The best part of the day should be before the afternoon heat and thunderstorm roulette. A nice forecast does not cancel August.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable on paper. NOAA has 1 to 2 foot seas today with an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 4 seconds. That is not the short, punchy water we were dealing with earlier this week.

Buoy 41122 southeast of Key Largo reported seas of 0.3 feet at 5:30 AM EDT, with water temperature at 87.3 F. That buoy is north of Islamorada, but it backs up the light-sea call.

The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to matter, 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. If there are birds, bait, weed, or a hard color change near the edge, take the look. If it is just pretty blue water with no life, do not turn a good reef day into a fuel bill.

florida bay

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 89.8 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before breakfast.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but the timing matters. Moving water and low light are the deal. Midday slack in that kind of heat is usually just a lesson with sunscreen on it.

tides for thursday, august 13

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	4:10 AM EDT	-0.06 ft	early low
High	9:59 AM EDT	1.70 ft	morning high
Low	4:32 PM EDT	-0.18 ft	afternoon low
High	10:27 PM EDT	1.74 ft	late high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	6:10 AM EDT	0.13 ft	morning low
High	11:39 AM EDT	0.84 ft	midday high
Low	7:21 PM EDT	0.03 ft	evening low

For the reef, the push into the 9:59 AM Whale Harbor high is the clean first piece. After that, the fall toward the 4:32 PM low gives you a second shot if the current has some shape to it.

The bay side has a later morning high at 11:39 AM. That can help if you are sight fishing, but the water temperature is already high. I would rather hit it early than wait for perfect paper tide and cook.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses is one of the better calls today. The Gulf Stream edge is 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, close enough that the outside edge can get interesting if the water shows a clean break.

Yellowtail snapper are the main reef target. Light wind means the chum line needs current more than boat motion. If the stern settles right and the fish come up, stay patient. A deeper bait is worth keeping down for mutton snapper.

conch reef

Conch should fish good if the current is honest. Smooth nearshore water makes the setup easier, and the lighter sea gives you room to adjust without beating up the crew.

Start with yellowtail. Keep a flatline ready if ballyhoo or small bait starts acting nervous in the slick. Cero mackerel can make a quiet reef stop loud in a hurry.

davis reef

Davis is the practical close reef today. It gives you structure without needing to gamble on the outside water.

Mangrove snapper are fair around the right bottom. Mutton snapper are fair if the tide gives you enough push to fish deeper baits clean. If the current goes soft, do not sit there feeding small fish all morning.

crocker reef

Crocker should be good for a patient yellowtail setup. The sea state is not the problem today. The question is current.

If the chum hangs around the transom and does nothing, move. If it stretches and the fish start rising, keep the baits small and natural.

alligator reef

Alligator gets my attention because the Gulf Stream edge is 7 NM southeast of the light. That does not guarantee fish, but it puts blue water close enough for a sensible look.

The reef program is still the base plan. Yellowtail and mutton snapper first. Outside only if the signs are there, not because the forecast is pretty.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should fish fair to good today. With light wind and small seas, the ride is easy enough, but the same rule applies. Current makes the reef.

Fish the tide, keep the chum steady, and do not wait too long if the line does not set up. A smooth ocean can still waste your day if you let it.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet on the reef. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper baits, especially around better current. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure.

Cero mackerel are fair wherever bait gets tight in the chum. Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, with the Gulf Stream edge close enough near Molasses and Alligator to justify a look when the water shows life.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early and late targets with moving water. The bay is hot at 89.8 F, so do not grind dead water in the middle of the day and expect it to pay you back.

midday addendum, 11:30 am

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:31 AM EDT. The morning forecast had Hawk Channel and the Straits starting east to southeast, then going variable. The midday package keeps the same small-sea story, but it sharpens the afternoon wind shift.

For Hawk Channel, the call is now east to southeast near 5 knots becoming northeast to east late. Seas stay around 1 foot, with nearshore waters smooth. That is still a clean reef window, just do not read “smooth” as “ignore the sky.” There is still a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

For the Straits, NOAA now has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast to east late. Seas remain 1 to 2 feet, with wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. No big sea-state jump from the morning. The change is mostly direction and timing.

Florida Bay also eased up in the midday update, with variable wind near 5 knots becoming east to southeast late and smooth bay waters. Tonight brings east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots increasing to near 10 knots, so the evening gets a little more texture.

Friday through the weekend still looks breezier than today. NOAA has east wind near 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots Friday, with Hawk Channel seas building toward around 2 feet and the Straits building from around 2 feet to 2 to 3 feet. Today is still the softer ride. Use it if you have it.

evening addendum, 9:00 pm

The 4:31 PM NOAA update kept the same general story, but it tightened up tomorrow a little. Weak high pressure is still over the Keys tonight. The wind goes northeast to east for a short stretch this evening, then turns east to southeast overnight.

Tonight is still manageable. Hawk Channel is northeast to east 5 to 10 knots becoming east to southeast near 10 knots. Seas build from around 1 foot to 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters going from smooth to a light chop. The Straits are northeast to east 5 to 10 knots becoming east to southeast near 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet building to around 2 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 4 seconds.

That makes the afternoon recap pretty plain. Today gave us the soft-water window we were looking for, especially on the reef side. The issue was never a rough ocean. It was heat, light wind, and whether the current gave the chum line enough shape to do its job. When the water is that hot, you fish the moving parts and quit arguing with dead water.

For Friday, plan on more breeze than today. NOAA has Hawk Channel east winds near 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet building to around 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. In the Straits, east winds near 10 knots increase to 10 to 15 knots, and seas build from around 2 feet to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail stays east 2 feet at 4 seconds.

Friday is still fishable, but it is not the glassy little gift today tried to hand us. Reef crews should have enough weather to work with if they set up clean and keep an eye on storms. Offshore crews need to earn the run. If the edge has birds, bait, weed, or a real color change, go look. If it is just blue water and hope, the reef is the smarter bet.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:11 AM EDT and updated 10:31 AM EDT and 4:31 PM EDT Thursday, August 13, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA NDBC buoy 41122 observation at 5:30 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 13, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.