Captain's log, August 14, 2026, east breeze, building reef chop, hot bay water

Friday, August 14. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:22 AM EDT, and the easy little window from yesterday is getting more texture today.

The wind is still workable, but it is not flat calm. High pressure in the central North Atlantic is building west, and with the ridge north of the Keys, the breeze is coming east to southeast through the weekend. That puts the reef in play, just with more chop than the slick-water crew got yesterday.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east to southeast winds near 10 knots this morning, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas build from 1 to 2 feet to around 2 feet, with nearshore waters going from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. There is a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

For the Straits, NOAA has east winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to near 15 knots. Seas build from around 2 feet to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is fishable water, but it is a short-period ocean. It will not feel like a clean long swell.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs are all fishable today. The better crews will set up early, keep the chum line honest, and pay attention to how the current lays before burning half the morning in the wrong place.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas 1 to 2 feet building to around 2 feet
Straits	around 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet
Wave detail	east 2 feet at 4 seconds in the Straits
Rain	chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.6 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Buoy read	41122 southeast of Key Largo, seas 1.6 ft and water 87.1 F at 5:30 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 13
Overall call	fair to good reef day, fair outside look, poor plan for ignoring storms

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the main working lane today. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas building toward around 2 feet. Nearshore waters start with a light chop and work up to a light to moderate chop.

That is still fine for a reef trip, especially with a crew that can handle a little bounce. It is not the kind of forecast where you drift around lazy and pretend the ocean owes you fish.

The reef should have enough breeze to keep the boat sitting right if the current cooperates. The storm chance is real enough to watch, but not enough by itself to call the day off.

straits of florida

The Straits are a judgment call. NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots increasing to near 15 knots, with seas building from around 2 feet to 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail is east 2 feet at 4 seconds.

Buoy 41122 southeast of Key Largo reported seas at 0.5 meters, about 1.6 feet, at 5:30 AM EDT. The dominant period was 3 seconds, with mean wave direction from 122 degrees. Water temperature at that buoy was 30.6 C, which is 87.1 F.

That backs up the forecast pretty well. Fishable, but short and close together. If the edge has birds, bait, weed, or a hard color change, it is worth a look. If it is just blue water and optimism, the reef is the better use of the day.

The Gulf Stream edge was listed 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 13. Close enough to matter, not close enough to make dumb water smart.

florida bay

Vaca Key, Florida Bay showed 89.6 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot before the sun gets high.

Bay fishing needs moving water and shade from the clock today. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but midday dead water in that temperature is a bad argument. If you are doing the bay, make the early tide count.

tides for friday, august 14

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	4:58 AM EDT	-0.10 ft	early low
High	10:48 AM EDT	1.71 ft	morning high
Low	5:20 PM EDT	-0.11 ft	afternoon low
High	11:10 PM EDT	1.71 ft	late high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	12:25 AM EDT	0.59 ft	overnight high
Low	7:03 AM EDT	0.11 ft	morning low
High	12:28 PM EDT	0.80 ft	midday high
Low	7:57 PM EDT	0.08 ft	evening low

For the reef, the push into the 10:48 AM Whale Harbor high is the first clean shot. After that, the fall toward the 5:20 PM low gives you another window if the weather behaves and the current keeps shape.

Bay side, the 7:03 AM low into the 12:28 PM high is the piece to fish. I would rather be early and right than late and baking.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses is a solid call today, mostly because it gives you structure and a nearby Gulf Stream edge without committing to a long ride. NOAA has the edge 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light.

Yellowtail snapper should be the first plan. Get the chum working, keep baits small, and let the fish climb if they are willing. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper baits when the current gives you enough angle.

The outside look from Molasses is fair. If the water has life, go. If the surface is empty, stay on the reef and make dinner happen.

conch reef

Conch should fish fair to good in today’s east to southeast breeze. The sea state is not too much, but it will have enough chop to keep a sloppy setup honest.

Yellowtail are the main target. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gets pushed around the slick. Keep a flatline ready, because the bite can show up quick and leave just as fast.

davis reef

Davis is the practical reef today. It is close, forgiving, and still has enough bottom to make a real day out of it.

Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Mutton snapper are fair if the tide lets you fish the deeper baits clean. If the current dies and the small fish take over, move before the chum bill gets stupid.

crocker reef

Crocker should be a good yellowtail stop if the water is moving. The wind direction is fine for it, and the 2-foot neighborhood in Hawk Channel is no reason to hide at the dock.

This is a patience reef, but not a stubborn reef. If the slick stretches and fish rise, stay with it. If the chum hangs flat behind the boat, do not make excuses for dead water.

alligator reef

Alligator gets attention today because NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. That gives you a reasonable outside option after reef work, especially if the color edge tightens up.

On the reef, yellowtail snapper are good when current lines up. Muttons are fair on deeper drops. Cero mackerel can make a mess in the slick if bait gets nervous, which is not a bad problem to have.

tennessee reef

Tennessee should fish fair today. The further west you run, the more you need the plan to be worth the fuel, but the general conditions still support a reef program.

Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are the sensible targets. Fish the moving water, keep the setup clean, and do not sit through a dead stretch just because the ride out was pretty.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best reef bet today. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper baits, especially around the tide changes. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure and better when the current has enough push.

Cero mackerel are fair anywhere bait gets tight in the chum. Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, but they need signs. Birds, bait, weed, current edge, color edge. Pick one or more before you leave the reef bite.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early and late targets with moving water. The bay is already 89.6 F, so the middle of the day is not where I would spend my best shots.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:27 AM EDT. The main read has not changed much from the morning call. The wind is still east to southeast, and the reef is still fishable, but the breeze is filling in like forecast.

For Hawk Channel this afternoon, NOAA is still calling east to southeast winds near 10 knots, becoming east and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet building to around 2 feet, with nearshore waters going from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. That is basically the same working reef window we had this morning.

The Straits are the place to watch. NOAA still has east winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast to east near 15 knots this afternoon, with seas around 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet. Tonight steps up to east to southeast winds near 15 knots and seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail tonight is east 3 feet at 4 seconds.

Florida Bay also gets bumpier after lunch. The forecast is east to southeast near 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, then near 15 knots tonight. Bay waters go from a light chop to a light to moderate chop this afternoon, then a moderate chop tonight.

So the midday adjustment is simple. Reef work still makes sense. The outside look needs a reason, not just a hunch. And if you are coming home late, expect more chop than the morning ride out.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:22 AM EDT and updated 10:27 AM EDT Friday, August 14, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA NDBC buoy 41122 observation at 5:30 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 13, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.