Captain's log, August 15, 2026, east southeast breeze, fishable reef chop, low shower coverage

Saturday, August 15. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:27 AM EDT, and the reef has a fishable but honest little chop on it.

The breeze is east to southeast across the Keys this morning. Not ugly, not slick. Just enough wind to make the boat sit right if the current helps, and enough short sea outside to make a blind offshore run feel like work.

NOAA says gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will start to slacken before the work week. The subtropical ridge weakens as a trough drops into the Atlantic from the eastern United States. Early next week may bring light and variable breeze. A Saharan Air Layer is also forecast to move across the Keys waters early next week, and NOAA has high confidence that shower coverage stays low for most of the forecast period.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots
Hawk Channel	seas 2 to 3 feet, light to moderate chop
Straits	seas 2 to 3 feet
Wave detail	east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds in the Straits
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 13
Overall call	fair to good reef day, fair outside look only if the water shows life

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the working lane today. NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop.

That is fishable reef water for a crew that can handle a little bounce. It is not the kind of day where you drift around lazy and wait for the fish to forgive you. Get set up right, let the chum line tell the truth, and move if the current is wrong.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all stay in play. The best stops will be the ones with clean water and enough push to make the slick work.

straits of florida

The Straits are not bad, but they are not free. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 15 knots this morning, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with wave detail east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds.

That is a short-period ocean. If there are birds, bait, weed, or a hard color edge, go take the look. If it is just blue water and hope, stay on the reef and make dinner happen.

The Gulf Stream edge was listed 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 13. Close enough to matter, but still not a guarantee.

florida bay

Florida Bay is also under east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, with bay waters a light to moderate chop. That is enough to keep open bay water from feeling soft.

The bay plan is still timing. Early moving water beats hot slack water. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat in August, but the middle of the day makes you earn every shot.

reef call

Yellowtail snapper are the cleanest reef bet today. The breeze gives the boat some shape, and the chop is still manageable. Keep baits small, keep the chum steady, and do not let a bad anchor set steal the morning.

Mutton snapper are fair on deeper baits where the current lets you fish clean. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Cero mackerel can show in the slick if bait gets nervous.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, but possible is not a plan. Let signs of life earn the run.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

midday addendum, 7:54 am EDT

NDBC is still carrying the 4:27 AM EDT NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast. No late-morning package has posted yet, so there is no official NOAA change to wind, seas, or shower coverage since the morning read.

The call remains east to southeast 10 to 15 knots on the reef, with Hawk Channel seas 2 to 3 feet and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. The Straits remain 2 to 3 feet, with an east to southeast 3 foot wave at 5 seconds.

So the adjustment is really no adjustment. Reef work still makes the most sense. The outside look needs birds, bait, weed, or a real edge before it deserves the fuel. Shower and thunderstorm coverage is still only slight today, with NOAA saying low shower coverage should hold for most of the forecast period.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:27 AM EDT Saturday, August 15, 2026. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 13, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.