Captain's log, August 16, 2026, lightening breeze, fishable reef water, low rain coverage

Sunday, August 16. NOAA Key West put out the coastal waters forecast at 4:29 AM EDT, and this is the kind of August morning where the reef gets a real chance to produce.

The breeze is still out of the east side, but it is backing down. NOAA has Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the Middle Keys under east to southeast wind near 10 knots today, with seas around 2 feet and nearshore waters a light chop. The Straits are a little more honest, east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, with an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds.

That 5 second period matters. It is not big water, but it is short water. The reef should be fine for a working charter boat. Running deep just because you woke up optimistic is still not a plan.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast near 10 knots on the reef, 10 to 15 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas around 2 feet, light chop
Straits	seas 2 to 3 feet
Wave detail	east 3 feet at 5 seconds
Florida Bay	east wind near 10 knots, light chop
Rain	shower coverage far below normal under Saharan Air Layer influence
Tide at Upper Matecumbe, Florida Bay	high 1:33 AM 0.68 ft, low 8:50 AM 0.10 ft, high 1:59 PM 0.65 ft, low 9:05 PM 0.17 ft
Water temp	Key West NOAA CO-OPS showed 89.4 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef day, fair offshore look if the water gives you a reason

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the best piece of the map today. East to southeast near 10 knots and 2 foot seas means Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs are all in play if the current is right.

The cleaner sets should come where the water has color, bait, and enough push to carry a chum slick. Slack hot water will make you work. Moving water is the friend today, especially through the late morning and into the afternoon high.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable, but not soft. NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots and 2 to 3 foot seas. The wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds, so expect a quick little head slap if you point the bow the wrong way.

The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to keep offshore on the board. NOAA Key West lists it 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 13. That is close, but the ocean still has to show life. Birds, bait, weed, color change, temperature break. Something real.

florida bay

Florida Bay gets east winds near 10 knots with bay waters a light chop. That is manageable, especially early. The morning low at Upper Matecumbe was 8:50 AM at 0.10 feet, then water comes back toward the 1:59 PM high at 0.65 feet.

That incoming water can help the flats and the edges breathe a little. It will still be August warm, so do not waste the best water waiting around at the dock.

reef by reef

Molasses has the closest Gulf Stream note and should be worth a look if the water is clean. Yellowtail snapper are the main target. Keep the chum steady and the baits small.

Conch and Davis should fish fair to good if the current lines up. Mutton snapper are possible on deeper baits, especially where the bottom has life and the boat sits clean.

Crocker and Alligator are good working reef options today. The chop is enough to hide the boat a little without making the day miserable. Mangrove snapper and cero mackerel can show if the bait is nervous.

Tennessee is a fair call for crews staying west or looking for a slightly different angle. Same rule as everywhere else. Clean water first, current second, then decide if the spot deserves your time.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet. The conditions line up for reef fishing, and the light chop should help more than hurt.

Mangrove snapper are fair around structure and ledges. Mutton snapper are fair where you can hold bottom without dragging baits all over the place. Cero mackerel are fair in the slick if bait stacks up.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside, but I would not build the whole day around them without seeing birds, weed, or a real edge. The Stream is close. Close is useful. It is not magic.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:30 AM EDT. The main move is still the same story from this morning, but the breeze is easing a little faster now.

Hawk Channel did not change much. It is still east to southeast near 10 knots with seas around 2 feet and nearshore waters a light chop for the afternoon. That keeps the reef in the good column if the water has current and color.

The Straits got a small improvement. This morning had east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. The midday forecast keeps the same 2 to 3 foot sea, but has the wind decreasing to near 10 knots this afternoon. Tonight, NOAA has east wind easing from 10 to 15 knots to near 10 knots, with seas subsiding from 2 to 3 feet to 1 to 2 feet.

Florida Bay also lightened up. The morning forecast had east wind near 10 knots and a light chop. The midday update starts east near 10, then drops to 5 to 10 knots, with bay waters becoming smooth to a light chop.

Rain still looks limited. The Saharan Air Layer is keeping shower coverage far below normal, so heat and sun are the bigger deal than storms right now. Drink water, fish the moving water, and do not chase ghosts offshore just because the numbers look a little friendlier.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:29 PM EDT, and the afternoon did what we wanted it to do. The wind is still on the east side, but the teeth are coming out of it.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is east wind 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. That is good reef water for an evening setup, especially if the current keeps sliding and the chum line does not die under the boat.

The Straits are improving too. NOAA has east wind near 10 knots this evening, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. It is still a short little sea early, but it should lay down better overnight.

Florida Bay backs off from east near 10 knots early to 5 to 10 knots, with bay waters going from a light chop to smooth to a light chop. That is about as kind as August gets without going dead slick and steamy.

Tomorrow looks light. NOAA has Hawk Channel east to southeast 5 to 10 knots becoming variable, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters going smooth. The Straits stay fishable with east wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and an east 2 foot wave at 5 seconds. Florida Bay goes southeast to south near 5 knots, then southwest, with smooth bay waters.

So the Monday plan is simple. Start on the reef if the water has color and current. Keep yellowtail snapper at the top of the list. If the ocean shows birds, weed, or a clean edge outside, the Straits are calm enough to go look. If it shows nothing, do not donate fuel to the horizon.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:29 AM EDT and updated 10:30 AM EDT and 4:29 PM EDT Sunday, August 16, 2026. Tide predictions are NOAA CO-OPS station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay, in feet MLLW. Water temperature is NOAA CO-OPS station 8724580, Key West, latest available observation at 5:54 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions are from NWS Key West as of August 13, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.