Captain's log, August 17, 2026, light reef wind, small seas, hot bay water

Monday, August 17. NOAA Key West put the coastal waters forecast out at 4:19 AM EDT, and the reef gets the first clean shot today.

The pattern over the Keys is weak and light. NOAA has a col region setting up early this week, with gentle east to southeast breeze becoming light and variable at times. A Saharan Air Layer is still helping keep showers suppressed through the first half of the week.

That is good news for a morning reef plan. It is also August, so the sun is not your friend for long. Fish the moving water, keep the chum honest, and do not sit through dead water just because the ride is easy.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots on the reef, becoming variable
Hawk Channel	seas 1 to 2 feet, nearshore waters smooth to a light chop
Straits	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots early, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots
Straits seas	2 to 3 feet, subsiding around 2 feet
Wave detail	east 3 feet at 5 seconds in the Straits
Florida Bay	southeast to south near 5 knots, becoming south to southwest, smooth bay water
Rain	showers suppressed by Saharan Air Layer influence
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Buoy read	41122 southeast of Key Largo, 1.0 foot at 3 seconds, water 86.9 F at 5:30 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look if the ocean shows life

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest part of the forecast. NOAA has east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming variable, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. The ride should not be the problem. The problem will be current, water color, and whether the fish want to settle behind the boat before the heat starts leaning on everything.

If the slick is sliding right, stay patient. If it hangs under the boat or runs dirty, move. Pretty weather can still waste a morning.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable, but they are not flat first thing. NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding around 2 feet, with an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds.

That short period is the part you feel. Not dangerous in the right boat, but enough to make a blind offshore run feel dumb if there is no sign. Birds, weed, bait, color change, or a hard edge have to earn the fuel.

The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to matter. NOAA Key West listed it 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 13, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST. Close is useful. It is not a promise.

florida bay

Florida Bay is smooth today, with southeast to south winds near 5 knots becoming south to southwest. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 88.5 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is hot water. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still feed, but the window is tighter. Moving water early beats standing around waiting for the bay to cook.

tides for monday, august 17

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for an Islamorada reef trip. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	12:33 AM EDT	1.558 ft	overnight high
Low	7:17 AM EDT	0.020 ft	morning low
High	1:07 PM EDT	1.541 ft	early afternoon high
Low	7:41 PM EDT	0.287 ft	evening low

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	2:07 AM EDT	0.698 ft	overnight high
Low	9:47 AM EDT	0.112 ft	morning low
High	2:44 PM EDT	0.559 ft	afternoon high
Low	9:40 PM EDT	0.217 ft	evening low

For the reef, the morning low at Whale Harbor and the push toward the 1:07 PM high are the main pieces of the day. If the water cleans up on that rise, the yellowtail bite has a good chance. If it goes weak and clear with no life, do not admire it too long.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses is a good call today. The Gulf Stream edge was 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of the latest NOAA note, and the Hawk Channel forecast is soft enough to work the reef properly.

Yellowtail snapper are the main target. Keep the chum steady, fish light, and give the bait enough room to drift naturally. Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside only if the edge shows something real.

conch reef

Conch should fish good if the current lines up on the incoming water. The light breeze helps the setup, especially if the boat sits clean and the chum line does not wash sideways.

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gets nervous in the slick. A deeper bait is worth soaking if the small fish are not chewing everything down to thread.

davis reef

Davis is a practical working stop today. It gives you reef structure without forcing a long run, and the 1 to 2 foot Hawk Channel sea keeps it comfortable enough for most charter crews.

Mangrove snapper are fair around the right bottom. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge if the current has enough push to keep baits placed instead of wandering.

crocker reef

Crocker should be fair to good. The light wind makes it easier to anchor clean, but the fish still need water movement.

Start with yellowtail and adjust depth before blaming the spot. If the slick stalls, tighten up and move. August snapper fishing rewards the boat that keeps working.

alligator reef

Alligator has one of the better reef and edge looks today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, and the Straits should ease as the day goes on.

The reef plan is yellowtail snapper first, with mutton snapper possible deeper. If the outside water shows birds, weed, bait, or a sharp color change, a short look makes sense. If it is empty blue water, stay on the reef and keep catching dinner.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is a fair call for crews working west or staying closer to that side of the island chain. The same rules apply. Clean water, moving current, steady chum.

Yellowtail snapper and mangrove snapper are the sensible targets. Cero mackerel can show if bait pushes through. If the current goes lazy, do not sit there hoping the fish read the forecast.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. Light reef wind, 1 to 2 foot Hawk Channel seas, and a good push toward the early afternoon high give them the cleanest setup.

Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Cero mackerel are fair when bait is present in the chum line.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside because the Gulf Stream edge is close near Molasses and Alligator. I would not build the whole day around them unless the ocean gives you signs worth chasing.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early and moving-water targets today. Vaca Key water was 88.5 F before sunrise, so the bay gets narrow fast once the sun is up.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:27 AM EDT. No big flip, just a softer version of the same summer pattern.

Hawk Channel still has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, but the afternoon call now has it becoming variable near 5 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet, and the nearshore water goes from smooth to a light chop back to smooth.

The Straits also eased a hair from the morning wording. Instead of east to southeast 10 to 15 knots early, NOAA now has east to southeast wind near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas stay 2 to 3 feet, subsiding around 2 feet, with the same east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is still a short little ocean, but it is laying down the right way.

Florida Bay has not changed much. Southeast to south near 5 knots, becoming south to southwest, with smooth bay waters. The dry air is still doing its job too. NOAA has shower and thunderstorm chances near nil through Tuesday night, then only a slight chance later in the work week.

For the rest of today, the reef remains the cleaner bet. If you are already outside and the edge shows birds, weed, bait, or color, take the look. If it is empty blue water, come back to the reef and make dinner the honest way.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:19 PM EDT. The afternoon settled into the light summer pattern we were watching this morning, with dry Saharan air still keeping rain chances near nil through Tuesday night.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the Middle Keys has southeast wind near 5 knots becoming variable, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth. That is clean reef water. If the current keeps moving after sunset, yellowtail snapper and mangrove snapper stay on the board without needing to beat up the crew.

The Straits laid down on paper too. NOAA has east wind 5 to 10 knots becoming variable near 5 knots tonight, seas 1 to 2 feet, and an east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. Still a short little wiggle, but not enough to scare off a smart look if the edge shows birds, weed, bait, or a real color change.

Florida Bay is easy tonight. Southwest to west wind near 5 knots becomes west to northwest, with smooth bay waters. Hot water is still hot water, so the better bite is tied to moving water and shade, not wishing August would act like April.

Tomorrow looks fishable across the board. Hawk Channel goes variable near 5 knots, becoming west to northwest, with seas around 1 foot and nearshore waters smooth. The Straits go variable near 5 knots, then northwest to north, with seas around 1 foot and an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 4 seconds. Florida Bay starts west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots, with smooth water becoming a light chop.

The reef is still the honest first call for Tuesday. Start where the water has color and current. Keep the yellowtail gear light, keep a deeper bait ready for mutton snapper, and only leave fishable reef water if the ocean gives you a real reason.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:19 AM EDT and updated 10:27 AM EDT and 4:19 PM EDT Monday, August 17, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA NDBC buoy 41122 observation at 5:30 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 13, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.