Captain's log, August 18, 2026, light variable wind, clean reef window, hot bay water

Tuesday, August 18. NOAA Key West put the coastal waters forecast out at 5:13 AM EDT, and it is a light-wind August setup across Islamorada.

The ridge axis is parked across the Keys waters, so wind stays mostly variable and under 10 knots for most of the week. NOAA does note that evening pulses can briefly push toward 15 knots, mainly in the Upper Keys. The Saharan air is still around too, which keeps rain chances near zero through the middle of the week.

That gives the reef a good working window. It also means the ocean may look prettier than it fishes if the current quits. Pick the water with life in it, not just the spot with the nicest ride.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	north to northeast near 5 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots on Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth to a light chop
Straits	northeast to east near 5 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots
Straits seas	1 to 2 feet
Wave detail	east 1 foot at 4 seconds in the Straits
Florida Bay	northwest near 5 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots, smooth becoming smooth to a light chop
Rain	near zero rain chances through the middle of the week
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.4 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Buoy read	41122 southeast of Key Largo, 0.7 foot at 2.2 seconds, water 87.1 F at 5:30 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look if the edge has bait or birds

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is soft today. NOAA has north to northeast wind near 5 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs all in play. The ride should be easy. The bite still needs current, color, and a chum slick that actually leaves the boat instead of hanging under it.

If the water is too clear and lazy, move. Calm water can fool you into sitting too long.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable on paper. NOAA has northeast to east wind near 5 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and an east 1 foot wave at 4 seconds.

That is a comfortable outside look if the ocean gives you a reason. The Gulf Stream edge was listed 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 13. Close water helps, but it still needs bait, weed, birds, or a clean color edge before I would burn much of the day out there.

florida bay

Florida Bay starts northwest near 5 knots and turns west 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters go from smooth to smooth to a light chop.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay showed 89.4 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is bath water. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still possible, but the best shot is early and tied tight to moving water.

tides for tuesday, august 18

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side read for an Islamorada reef trip. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	1:15 AM EDT	1.464 ft	overnight high
Low	8:04 AM EDT	0.121 ft	morning low
High	1:54 PM EDT	1.449 ft	early afternoon high
Low	8:31 PM EDT	0.422 ft	evening low

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	2:43 AM EDT	0.700 ft	overnight high
Low	10:47 AM EDT	0.128 ft	late morning low
High	3:34 PM EDT	0.472 ft	afternoon high
Low	10:15 PM EDT	0.256 ft	evening low

For the reef, the morning low at Whale Harbor and the push toward the 1:54 PM high are the main pieces. If that incoming water has some color and enough speed to carry chum, yellowtail should get a real chance.

reef by reef

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good setup today. The Gulf Stream edge was 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light in the latest NOAA note, and the local sea state is friendly.

Yellowtail snapper are the first call. Keep the tackle light, let the bait drift naturally, and do not overfeed them. A short outside peek for mahi mahi or blackfin tuna makes sense only if the edge has life on it.

conch reef

Conch should be good if the current lines up after the morning low. Light wind makes it easier to sit clean on the anchor, but the fish still have to commit in the slick.

Yellowtail snapper are the best target here. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows up. A deeper bait is worth keeping down for a mutton snapper while the surface work settles in.

davis reef

Davis is a practical charter stop today. The 1 foot Hawk Channel forecast keeps the ride easy and gives you room to adjust if one piece of bottom is not talking.

Mangrove snapper are fair around the right structure. Mutton snapper are fair on deeper edges if the current has enough push to hold bait in the strike zone.

crocker reef

Crocker should be fair to good. The easy weather helps, but this is still August reef fishing. The difference between a good stop and a dead one may be one small current line.

Start with yellowtail. Change depth, bait size, and leader before you decide the spot is empty. But if the slick will not stretch, do not marry it.

alligator reef

Alligator has one of the better looks on the board because the Stream edge was listed 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. The reef itself should fish well if the current comes right on the incoming water.

Yellowtail snapper are the cleanest bet. Mutton snapper are possible deeper. If the outside shows birds, weed, bait, or hard color, take the look. If not, stay where dinner lives.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is a fair call for crews working west or wanting a little different angle from the central reef line. The same rule applies here as everywhere else today. Clean water and moving current matter more than the name on the chart.

Yellowtail snapper and mangrove snapper are the sensible targets. Cero mackerel can slide through if the bait is nervous. If the water gets hot, clear, and slow, pick up and go find a better lane.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. Light reef wind, small seas, and incoming water toward early afternoon give them the cleanest setup.

Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge. Cero mackerel are fair when bait stacks in the chum line.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible outside because the Gulf Stream edge is close near Molasses and Alligator. I would not make that the whole plan unless the ocean shows bait, birds, weed, or a hard edge.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are early and moving-water targets. Vaca Key water was 89.4 F before sunrise, so the bay window is narrow once the sun gets up.

midday addendum, 10:38 AM NOAA update

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:38 AM EDT, and the big picture is still holding. This is not a forecast that got mean on us after breakfast.

Hawk Channel stayed about the same. NOAA still has north to northeast wind near 5 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas stay around 1 foot, with nearshore waters smooth to a light chop.

The Straits are still a workable outside look. The update keeps northeast to east wind near 5 knots becoming northwest to north and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas remain 1 to 2 feet, with an east 1 foot wave at 4 seconds.

Florida Bay got a touch more north in the wording. The morning call had northwest near 5 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. The midday update has northwest to north near 5 knots, becoming west and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters still go from smooth to smooth to a light chop.

The one thing I would keep an eye on is the evening pulse. NOAA kept the note about winds occasionally approaching 15 knots, mainly near the Upper Keys. For tonight, Florida Bay has west to northwest wind 10 to 15 knots before easing back to 5 to 10 knots, so the late ride can get a little more chop than the middle of the day.

Rain is still not much of a player. Saharan air is keeping chances near zero through the middle of the week, with only a small recovery late week.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

evening addendum, 4:27 PM NOAA update

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:27 PM EDT, and the afternoon recap is pretty close to what the morning told us to expect. Light wind ruled most of the day, then the late pulse showed up near the Upper Keys.

That matters if you were trying to stretch the day. Florida Bay has a small craft caution until the wind drops, with west to northwest wind 15 to 20 knots early tonight, then northwest near 10 knots. Bay waters go from choppy back to a light chop. Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key has the same caution, with northwest wind 15 to 20 knots early, then 10 to 15 knots. Seas are still around 1 foot, but the nearshore water can feel choppy before it eases.

The Straits off the Upper Keys also carry a caution until winds decrease. NOAA has northwest wind 15 to 20 knots early tonight, easing to near 10 knots, with seas around 1 foot. Wave detail is west 1 foot at 2 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Those are small numbers, but a short evening breeze across the tide can still make the ride home feel busier than the chart says.

For Wednesday, the ocean gets friendly again if the forecast holds. Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key goes west to northwest 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest, with seas 1 foot or less and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Upper Keys Straits go west to northwest near 10 knots early, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, with seas 1 foot or less and a northwest 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

So tomorrow is still a reef-first call. Yellowtail snapper should stay the cleanest bet if the current gives the chum somewhere to go. Mutton snapper and mangrove snapper are fair around the right bottom. The outside mahi or blackfin look is worth a peek only if the edge has birds, weed, bait, or a hard color change. The Gulf Stream edge was still listed 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of August 13, so the distance is not the problem. Finding life is.

Rain still is not much of a player through Wednesday. NOAA keeps the Saharan air note in the forecast, with near zero rain chances through the middle of the week and only a slow moisture recovery late week.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 5:13 AM EDT and updated 10:38 AM EDT and 4:27 PM EDT Tuesday, August 18, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA NDBC buoy 41122 observation at 5:30 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 13, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.