Captain's log, August 19, 2026, light wind, small seas, hot bay water

Wednesday, August 19. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 5:10 AM EDT, and the reef line gets a pretty workable summer setup today. Light wind, small seas, and not much rain early thanks to Saharan air sitting over the Keys.

That does not make it automatic. August water is hot, and weak wind can make the current lazy. You can have a beautiful ocean and still have to move around until the chum line lays out right.

For the Upper Keys, NOAA has Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key with northwest wind near 10 knots becoming southwest to west. Seas are around 1 foot, and nearshore waters go from a light chop to smooth to a light chop. From Craig Key west toward the Middle Keys, Hawk Channel is northwest to north 5 to 10 knots with seas around 1 foot.

The Straits are also small. Ocean Reef to Craig Key gets west to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and a northwest 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. Craig Key west gets north wind near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and a north 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	northwest to north early, becoming west or southwest to west on parts of Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth to a light chop
Straits	seas around 1 foot to 1 to 2 feet
Florida Bay	northwest 5 to 10 knots becoming west, smooth to light chop
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look, heat limited bay

Long Key had north wind near 9 knots, gusting near 11 knots, at 5:40 AM EDT. That matches the forecast. Nothing nasty in the wind at daylight, just enough breeze to keep the boat honest.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the main lane today. The Upper Keys side from Ocean Reef to Craig Key starts northwest near 10 knots, then bends southwest to west. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters start with a light chop and settle back to smooth to a light chop.

That keeps Molasses and Conch comfortable for most crews. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee sit under the Craig Key to Seven Mile Bridge forecast, northwest to north 5 to 10 knots with seas around 1 foot and smooth to light chop nearshore water.

The sea state is not the problem. The current is the question. If the slick stretches clean, yellowtail should chew. If it falls under the boat or swings sideways, do not turn stubborn. Change depth, reset, or slide to another piece.

straits of florida

The outside water is fishable on paper. East of Craig Key, NOAA has west to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet. West of Craig Key, it is north near 5 knots with seas around 1 foot.

NOAA lists the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream as of August 13 at 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough to make the outside worth a look if the ocean shows life.

Do not blind troll the whole morning just because the water is pretty. Birds, weed, bait, flyers, a hard color edge, or current should make that call. If the reef is biting, make the reef pay first.

florida bay

Florida Bay has northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west, with bay waters smooth to a light chop. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 90.0 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is hot water before breakfast. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still possible, but the better bay window is early moving water, channels, shaded edges, and any place the fish can get a little relief. Midday flats fishing in 90 degree water is a grind.

tides for wednesday, august 19

Whale Harbor Channel gives the clean ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef run.

event	time	height	notes
High	1:58 AM EDT	1.374 ft	early high
Low	8:55 AM EDT	0.225 ft	morning low
High	2:44 PM EDT	1.364 ft	afternoon high
Low	9:24 PM EDT	0.536 ft	night low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	6:00 AM EDT	1.12 ft	morning high
Low	12:30 PM EDT	0.112 ft	midday low

For the reef, I like the water moving after the 8:55 AM Whale Harbor low. The afternoon rise toward the 2:44 PM high should give the chum line something to work with if the current lines up down the reef.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good grade today. Hawk Channel is around 1 foot, and the Gulf Stream edge was listed 7 NM southeast of the light in the latest NOAA read.

Start on the reef before running outside. Yellowtail snapper should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current behaves. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge with fresh bait. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows in the slick.

If the blue water has birds or weed, take a short look. If it looks empty, get back to the reef and fish the moving water.

conch reef

Conch should be comfortable in this forecast. Light northwest wind early, small seas, and an afternoon tide rise are all workable.

Yellowtail are the first bet in 50 to 80 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure and ledges. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth soaking, but do not let one bottom rod slow down a good yellowtail bite.

davis reef

Davis is the easy Islamorada half-day call. Short ride, small sea, and plenty of bottom in a depth range that makes sense for a mixed crew.

Yellowtail should be good in 40 to 60 feet with clean chum and steady current. Mangroves are fair around harder bottom. Cero mackerel are fair if the bait stacks up behind the boat.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. The wind is light enough for a clean anchor set, and the tide should start helping after the morning low.

Work 55 to 80 feet and let the current tell you whether to stay. Yellowtail are good. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge with a live bait or fresh cut bait placed clean. If the slick is wandering, move before the heat takes the edge off the bite.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better all-around calls. It gives you reef, deeper edge, and a reasonable outside check with the Stream edge 7 NM southeast of the light.

Yellowtail should be good from 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair deeper. Mangrove snapper are fair where the structure is right. If the outside shows color or bait, look at it. If not, the reef is already giving you the better odds.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today, especially with Hawk Channel around 1 foot. From Islamorada it is still a longer push than Davis, Crocker, or Alligator, so I would not pass good water just to go west.

If you are already pointed that way, work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangrove snapper. The deeper edge gives you a fair mutton shot. Keep the plan simple and make the current earn your time.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with clean chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and patchy bottom while water moves
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside look only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early around deeper current edges
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner moving water on the bay side
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail snapper get the best mark today. The water is small enough to set up right, and the tide should give the reef something to work with after the morning low.

Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair, not automatic. Put a good bait down on the deeper edge and keep the rest of the program moving.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is close enough to check from Molasses or Alligator. That does not mean the offshore bite is guaranteed. Let the ocean show you something before you spend the morning out there.

The bay is heat limited. A 90.0 F water temperature at Vaca Key before 6 AM means early is not just nicer, it is the better fishing window.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the clean half-day choice. Crocker and Alligator are the stronger snapper plays if the current sets up. Molasses gets the outside-water nod because the Stream edge is close enough to matter, but I would not leave biting yellowtail to go searching.

Conch is steady if the chum line lays out. Tennessee is on the board, but I would only make that longer run if the closer water is not right or the crew wants to stretch the ride.

Today is a good August reef day out of Islamorada. Small seas, light wind, hot water, and enough weather in the forecast to keep your head on a swivel. Fish clean. Move when the water gets lazy. Do not let a pretty ocean talk you into ignoring what is happening behind the boat.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:38 AM EDT, and the main change is a little more afternoon push in the Upper Keys.

Florida Bay went from northwest 5 to 10 knots becoming west in the morning package to north 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest to west and increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Bay waters are still starting smooth to a light chop, but NOAA now has them becoming a light to moderate chop. That is not ugly water. It is just enough west wind to make the bay less slick than it looked at daylight.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key also ticked up. The morning read had northwest wind near 10 knots becoming southwest to west, with seas around 1 foot. The midday forecast keeps northwest wind near 10 knots early, then has southwest to west wind increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, with seas building from around 1 foot to 1 to 2 feet. Molasses and Conch are still very fishable, but the ride home may have a little more bump than the early forecast suggested.

From Craig Key west toward Seven Mile Bridge, Hawk Channel stayed steadier. NOAA still has northwest to north wind 5 to 10 knots with seas around 1 foot and smooth to light chop nearshore water.

The Straits are still small, but the outside water did pick up a shade in the wording. Ocean Reef to Craig Key is now west to northwest 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest to west near 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet building to around 2 feet. Craig Key west is now northwest to north 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet, up from the morning’s lighter north wind near 5 knots and seas around 1 foot.

Rain is still not the story. NOAA keeps only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, and the synopsis still points to Saharan air holding most of the rain off today. The fishing call does not change much: reef first, watch the current, and expect the afternoon west wind to show up more than it did this morning.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 5:10 AM EDT and refreshed at 10:38 AM EDT Wednesday, August 19, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observation from Long Key station LONF1 at 5:40 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 13, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the 4:29 PM EDT coastal waters forecast, and the afternoon did what the midday package warned about. The wind stayed light enough to fish, but the west side of the compass had more say than it did at sunrise.

Florida Bay is west to northwest 5 to 10 knots tonight, briefly increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening, then becoming west to southwest 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop, briefly a light to moderate chop. That is a little more rattle for a skiff, not a shutdown.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key is northwest 5 to 10 knots tonight, briefly 10 to 15 knots off the Upper Keys, then southwest to west. Seas are around 1 foot, except 1 to 2 feet off the Upper Keys. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, briefly a light to moderate chop off the Upper Keys.

The Straits stayed small. NOAA has northwest to north wind 5 to 10 knots tonight, briefly near 10 knots off the Upper Keys, then south to southwest. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, except around 2 feet off the Upper Keys. Wave detail is northwest to north 1 foot at 3 seconds.

Rain still is not much of the story. The evening forecast keeps only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, and the synopsis still has Saharan air holding mainly rain-free conditions through the end of the work week. That dry air can make the sky look empty and the heat feel mean.

tomorrow’s outlook

Thursday looks fishable again, but it is more of a southwest to west day than a clean easterly Keys setup. Florida Bay gets southwest wind 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots, with bay waters building from smooth to a light chop into a light chop. Hawk Channel has southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot. The Straits have south to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and a west 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

That keeps the reef on the board. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Conch should all be comfortable enough if the current lays out right. Yellowtail are still the best bet. Mangroves and muttons are worth the time around structure and the deeper edge, but do not camp on dead water just because the anchor set was pretty.

Offshore is a fair look only if the water gives you a reason. The Gulf Stream edge was still listed 7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light in the latest NWS Key West Gulf Stream note, but the ocean has to show birds, weed, bait, or a hard edge before I would spend too much of Thursday hunting mahi.

For the bay, early is the whole deal. Hot water does not get kinder in the afternoon. If you are looking for bonefish, permit, or tarpon, fish moving water before the sun gets high, then get out of your own way.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:29 PM EDT Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 13, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.