Captain's log, August 20, 2026, light wind, small seas, hot water

Thursday, August 20. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 3:55 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets a quiet summer ocean today. Light and variable wind is the main story. The reef line is small, the Straits are small, and the heat is still very real.

That last part matters. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 90.3 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before most crews have even loaded the cooler. The ocean may look friendly, but the bite still needs current, clean water, and enough life in the chum line to keep fish behind the boat.

The NOAA synopsis has a split ridge over the Keys waters with a nearby col, which is why the wind is light and loose today. That pattern hangs around through the end of the week and early weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible, with rain chances around 30 percent over the next several days as the Saharan dust keeps moving out.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	light and variable, generally near 5 knots
Hawk Channel	southwest to west near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	south to southwest near 5 knots becoming northeast to east, seas around 1 foot
Florida Bay	southwest near 5 knots becoming south to southwest, bay waters smooth
Rain	chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	7 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 7 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look, heat limited bay

Nearby wind checks fit the light wind setup, even if the compass is wandering. Sombrero Key had northwest wind near 6 knots, gusting near 8 knots, at 5:30 AM EDT. Long Key was more twitchy at the same time, east wind near 11 knots gusting near 16 knots after several lighter readings. That is what weak pressure does down here. It moves around.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest call today. NOAA has the whole stretch from Ocean Reef to Craig Key, Craig Key to Seven Mile Bridge, and west toward Halfmoon Shoal under southwest to west wind near 5 knots. Seas are 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters are smooth.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all sit in a fishable window with that forecast. The ride should not be the problem. The question is whether the current lays the slick out or leaves it hanging under the transom.

If the chum line runs clean, stay with it. If it wanders, falls flat, or starts wrapping around the boat, move. Pretty water does not pay the bills unless fish are eating in it.

straits of florida

The Straits are also small today. NOAA has south to southwest wind near 5 knots becoming northeast to east, with seas around 1 foot.

That keeps an outside check on the table from Molasses or Alligator, especially with the latest NOAA Gulf Stream note still putting the shoreward edge 7 NM southeast of both lights. But do not troll empty water just because it is calm. Look for birds, weed, flyers, bait, current edge, or a clean color change before you spend much time out there.

florida bay

Florida Bay is smooth today. NOAA has southwest wind near 5 knots becoming south to southwest, with bay waters smooth and a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The bay-side issue is temperature, not sea state. Water at 90.3 F before 6 AM makes the early window the best window. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still possible, but I would want moving water, shade, channels, or deeper edges. Midday skinny water is not where I would bet the trip.

tides for thursday, august 20

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef run.

event	time	height	notes
High	2:45 AM EDT	1.299 ft	early high
Low	9:50 AM EDT	0.311 ft	morning low
High	3:39 PM EDT	1.299 ft	afternoon high
Low	10:22 PM EDT	0.614 ft	night low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	6:45 AM EDT	1.102 ft	morning high
Low	1:34 PM EDT	0.076 ft	early afternoon low

For the reef, I like the water after the 9:50 AM Whale Harbor low. That incoming push toward the 3:39 PM high should help yellowtail and mangroves if the current points the right way.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses looks good today. Seas are 1 foot or less on the Hawk Channel side, and the Gulf Stream edge was listed 7 NM southeast of the light in the latest NOAA read.

Start on the reef and make the chum work. Yellowtail snapper should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current gets moving after the morning low. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows up behind the boat.

The outside is worth a look only if it gives you a reason. Calm water is not the same as fishy water.

conch reef

Conch should be comfortable with southwest to west wind near 5 knots and smooth nearshore water.

Yellowtail are the first bet in 50 to 80 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair around harder bottom and ledges. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth soaking, but keep the main program moving if the yellowtail start eating.

davis reef

Davis is the easy half-day call. Short ride, small sea, and plenty of bottom in the right depth range for a mixed crew.

Fish 40 to 60 feet and watch the slick. Yellowtail should be good on clean chum. Mangroves are fair around structure. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks up and the water has a little flash to it.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look once the tide starts moving. Light wind makes the anchor set easy, but it can also make the current lazy.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are good. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge with live bait or fresh cut bait placed clean. If the slick is weak, do not sit there waiting for the ocean to apologize.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the stronger calls today because it gives you options. Reef first, deeper edge second, outside check only if the water talks.

Yellowtail should be good from 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair deeper. Mangrove snapper are fair where the structure is right. With the Gulf Stream edge listed 7 NM southeast of the light, mahi are possible, but I would still let birds, bait, or weed make that decision.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable in this setup. Seas 1 foot or less keep it comfortable, and the afternoon tide should help if the current lines up.

From Islamorada, I would not run past good water to get there unless the crew wants the longer ride or the closer reef is stale. Fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper edge gives a fair mutton shot.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with clean chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and patchy bottom while water moves
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside look only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early around deeper current edges
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner moving water on the bay side
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail snapper get the best mark today. The sea state is right, and the incoming tide after the morning low gives the reef a better shot at a clean bite.

Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair, not automatic. Put a bait where it belongs and do not let one quiet rod slow the whole boat down.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is close enough from Molasses and Alligator. That does not mean the outside bite is automatic. If the ocean is empty, come back to the reef and catch dinner.

The bay is heat limited. Early moving water is the play for bonefish, permit, and tarpon. Once the sun gets high, the fish are not the only ones looking for shade.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the clean half-day choice. Crocker and Alligator are the stronger snapper plays if the current behaves. Molasses gets the outside-water nod because the Gulf Stream edge is close enough to matter, but I would not leave biting yellowtail to go searching.

Conch is steady. Tennessee is on the board, but it is not where I would start unless the closer water does not feel right.

Today is a good August reef day out of Islamorada. Light wind, small seas, hot water, and enough shower chances to keep an eye on the sky. Make the current earn your time.

midday addendum, 10:39 AM forecast

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:39 AM EDT, and the ocean is still in that light summer mode. The main change from the morning read is direction, not size. Hawk Channel, the Straits, Florida Bay, and the Gulf side are all now called variable near 5 knots for this afternoon.

Seas did not really move. Hawk Channel is still 1 foot or less with smooth nearshore water. The Straits are still around 1 foot. Florida Bay stays smooth. The Bay still carries a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, while Hawk Channel and the Gulf side are down to a slight chance.

That keeps the reef as the cleanest play. The wind has gone loose instead of lining up out of the southwest, so watch the slick before you marry a spot. If the chum hangs under the boat or starts wandering, move until the current acts right. Small seas are nice, but current is still the boss.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 3:55 AM EDT Thursday, August 20, 2026, with midday update issued 10:39 AM EDT Thursday, August 20, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observations from Sombrero Key station SMKF1 and Long Key station LONF1 at 5:30 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 13, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.

evening addendum, 4:21 PM forecast

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 4:21 PM EDT, and the afternoon stayed in the small-water lane. The wind did not turn into much. It just wandered around like August wind does when the pressure pattern is weak.

Tonight, Hawk Channel is south to southwest 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south. Seas are around 1 foot, and nearshore waters stay smooth to a light chop. The Straits are the same general idea, south to southwest 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast to south, with seas 1 to 2 feet and only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Florida Bay stays friendly on paper. NOAA has south to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast to south, with bay waters smooth to a light chop. That is workable water for the evening, but the heat still matters. Warm bay water can make the fish picky even when the surface looks perfect.

The better news is the Gulf Stream note finally moved closer to what we want to see. As of August 19, NOAA has the shoreward edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That does not mean mahi are stacked up waiting on us, but it does put blue water close enough to inspect without turning the day into a blind boat ride.

tomorrow’s outlook

Friday looks like another fishable summer day out of Islamorada. NOAA has southeast to south wind near 5 knots on Hawk Channel, with seas 1 foot or less and smooth nearshore water. The Straits are southeast to south near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, with an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

That is a good reef forecast if the current behaves. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Molasses are all on the board. Yellowtail are still the first call in 40 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge if the bait is clean and the boat is sitting right.

The outside look is fair, not automatic. With the Stream edge listed close to Molasses and Alligator, I would check birds, weed, bait, and color before committing real time offshore. If it looks dead, come back inside and make the reef pay.

For the bay, go early or do not complain about the heat. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon need moving water and a little relief. Midday skinny water in late August is a tough place to ask for miracles.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:21 PM EDT Thursday, August 20, 2026. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 19, 2026.