Captain's log, August 21, 2026, light breeze, small reef seas, hot water

Friday, August 21. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:20 AM EDT, and the reef line has one of those soft August setups today. Light southeast to south breeze, small seas, hot water, and just enough storm chance to keep a captain watching the sky instead of daydreaming.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the reef line west of Craig Key, NOAA has southeast to south winds near 5 knots today. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth. That covers Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee under the same friendly sea state.

The Straits are still manageable. NOAA has southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east, with seas 1 to 2 feet and an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. Offshore is fishable, but do not let small seas trick you into burning half the morning over dead water.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	southeast to south near 5 knots in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	southeast 5 to 10 knots becoming east, seas 1 to 2 feet
Florida Bay	southeast to south near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on the ocean side
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef comfort, fair outside look, heat limited bay

Long Key reported south wind at 11.1 knots with gusts to 13.0 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Sombrero Key had southeast wind at 11.1 knots with gusts to 13.0 knots at the same time. The forecast is light, but the stations were already showing a little more push than the printed near-5-knot wording.

Station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef had seas near 1.3 feet at 5:30 AM EDT, with a 3 second period and water temperature at 86.9 F. That matches the forecast well enough. Small, close chop. Not much swell.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the easy lane today. NOAA has southeast to south wind near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and smooth nearshore water.

That is comfortable water for the reef boats. The trick is current, not survival. With light wind, the chum line can get lazy or drift funny. If it lays out clean, yellowtail should get with it. If the slick falls under the boat, do not sit there arguing with it.

Molasses and Conch get the same sea call as Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee. The further west reefs are not rougher on paper today. The better choice is where the water looks alive, not where the map looks cute.

straits of florida

The Straits have southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east, with seas 1 to 2 feet. NOAA lists the wave detail as east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds.

The Gulf Stream note is the interesting part. NOAA has the shoreward edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of August 19. That is close. It puts blue water and current right near the reef line, especially around Molasses.

Still, close water does not mean guaranteed mahi. Look for birds, flyers, weed, bait, a color edge, or current that actually shows itself. If the reef bite is working, make it pay first.

florida bay

Florida Bay has southeast to south wind near 5 knots and smooth bay waters. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 89.8 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is hot before most folks finish coffee. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still possible, but the bay bite needs early moving water, cleaner edges, channels, and shade where you can get it. Midday flats work in this heat is not for soft hands.

tides for friday, august 21

Whale Harbor Channel gives the clean ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:39 AM EDT	1.249 ft	early high
Low	10:48 AM EDT	0.364 ft	late morning low
High	4:39 PM EDT	1.269 ft	afternoon high
Low	11:22 PM EDT	0.648 ft	late low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	7:32 AM EDT	1.073 ft	morning high
Low	2:39 PM EDT	0.071 ft	afternoon low

For the reef, the late morning low is the pivot. The water falling into 10:48 AM may fish if it is clean, but I like the turn and the push toward the 4:39 PM high better for a steady chum slick. Do not waste the whole slack. Use it to reset.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good grade for comfort and a good outside-water look. Hawk Channel is 1 foot or less, and the Gulf Stream edge was listed 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light in the latest NOAA note.

That is close enough to make the water interesting, but I would still start with the reef. Yellowtail snapper should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current lines up after the low. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge with the right bait. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gathers in the slick.

If the blue water is sitting on top of the reef with life in it, take a look. If it is just pretty and empty, get back to work.

conch reef

Conch should be comfortable all day in this forecast. Light southeast to south breeze, smooth nearshore water, and almost no sea makes anchoring clean.

Yellowtail are the first play in 50 to 80 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth having out, but it should not run the whole trip unless it starts talking back.

davis reef

Davis is the clean half-day call. Short ride, small water, and enough structure to keep a mixed crew in the game.

Work 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail with steady chum. Mangroves are fair around harder bottom and ledges. If the current gets weak around the late morning low, move depth or wait for the push toward afternoon before you burn bait doing nothing.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. The light wind lets you set up where you want, which matters when the current is not doing all the work for you.

Fish 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good if the slick stretches. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge with fresh cut bait or a lively offering. If the water goes dead, do not admire the anchor set. Pick it up.

alligator reef

Alligator gets one of the better all-around marks. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, and the reef side is calm enough to fish clean.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair. Mutton snapper are fair deeper, especially when the tide starts pushing after the 10:48 AM Whale Harbor low. The outside is worth a look if birds, weed, bait, or color make it obvious.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today, with Hawk Channel at 1 foot or less and smooth nearshore water. From Islamorada it is still a longer ride than Davis, Crocker, or Alligator, so I would not run past good water without a reason.

If you are already headed that way, work 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangrove snapper. The deeper side has a fair mutton shot. Keep the program simple. Let the water prove it deserves more time.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with clean chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and patch reef edges
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge around tide movement
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early deeper current edges and clean water
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay-side water with current
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best mark today. Small seas let you set up right, and the tide gives a real afternoon push after the late morning low.

Mangroves and muttons are fair, not automatic. Put bait where it belongs and keep the rest of the boat fishing. Ceros are worth watching for once the slick gets life in it.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is close, especially near Molasses and Alligator. The ocean still needs to show you something. A blank blue desert is still blank.

The bay is heat limited. With Vaca Key at 89.8 F before sunrise, early moving water is the whole deal for the skinny-water side.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the easy half-day call. Crocker and Alligator are stronger snapper plays if the tide lines up. Molasses has the most interesting outside-water angle because the Gulf Stream edge is sitting close, but I would not leave biting yellowtail just to go sightseeing.

Conch is steady. Tennessee is fine if you are already pointed west. Today is not a rough-water problem. It is a current and heat problem.

Set up clean, fish light enough, and move when the water quits. Small seas make the day comfortable. They do not put fish in the box by themselves.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:18 AM EDT, and the midday read is a little softer than the early package in Hawk Channel. The morning forecast had southeast to south wind near 5 knots. The new afternoon wording has south to southwest wind near 5 knots, becoming southeast to south. Seas are still 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters stay smooth.

The Straits did not change much where it matters for a small-boat call. NOAA now has south wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast this afternoon, with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is still fishable water, just light and a little shifty.

Florida Bay also backed off a touch from the morning wording. The afternoon forecast is south to southwest near 5 knots becoming southeast to south, with bay waters smooth. Shower and thunderstorm wording stays in the slight chance range for Hawk Channel, the Straits, and the bay. Same August rule applies, keep one eye on the sky and do not overthink the sea state.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:20 AM EDT and updated 10:18 AM EDT Friday, August 21, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observations from Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 19, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.

evening addendum, 4:29 PM forecast

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 4:29 PM EDT, and the afternoon stayed small. The wind slid around, but it never turned into much of a sea problem. That is about as August as it gets down here. Light breeze, hot water, a slick that needs current more than it needs sympathy.

Tonight, Hawk Channel is forecast southeast to south near 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits have east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots. Seas build from 1 to 2 feet to around 2 feet. NOAA lists the wave detail as east 1 foot at 4 seconds. That is still workable water, but it is not dead calm offshore. Keep the ride honest and watch the sky.

Florida Bay has south to southwest wind near 5 knots, becoming southeast to south and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters go from smooth to a light chop. Same slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The close-water note is still the Gulf Stream edge. NOAA has it 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of August 19. That keeps Molasses and Alligator interesting for a quick outside check, but I would not turn a good reef bite into a boat ride unless the birds, weed, bait, or color make the call for you.

tomorrow’s outlook

Saturday looks fishable out of Islamorada. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, seas 1 foot or less, and smooth nearshore waters. Florida Bay is southeast near 5 knots with smooth bay waters. Both areas carry only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are a little bigger, but still reasonable. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas start around 2 feet and ease to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds.

That points me back to the reef first. Davis is the easy half-day call. Crocker and Alligator are good snapper choices if the current lays out clean. Molasses has the best close-blue-water angle with the Stream edge sitting right near the reef line, but the ocean still needs to show life before it earns time.

Yellowtail stay the first play in 40 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge when the bait is clean and the boat is sitting right. For mahi, keep the outside look short unless the water gives you something real.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:29 PM EDT Friday, August 21, 2026. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 19, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.