Captain's log, August 22, 2026, light southeast breeze, small reef seas, close blue water

Saturday, August 22. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:26 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line gets a soft August setup again. Southeast to east breeze near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, seas 1 foot or less, smooth nearshore water, and only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

That is friendly water for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee. The ride is not the main problem today. Current, heat, and finding clean life in the water matter more than the sea state.

The Straits are still fishable. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots today, seas 1 to 2 feet, and an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. The Gulf Stream edge is close too, listed 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of August 19.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	southeast to east near 5 knots in Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet
Florida Bay	southeast near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.7 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Reef-side wave check	Station 41122 southeast of Molasses, 0.7 ft at 5:30 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef comfort, fair outside look, heat limited bay

Long Key reported southeast wind near 5 knots with gusts near 7 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Sombrero Key had south wind near 5 knots with gusts near 7 knots at the same time. Those numbers fit the NOAA forecast. Light, a little loose, and not enough to make the reef uncomfortable.

Station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef reported seas near 0.7 feet at 5:30 AM EDT, with an average period around 2.4 seconds and water temperature at 86.9 F. That is a small, short-period ripple. The bay-side water is hotter, with Vaca Key, Florida Bay reporting 90.7 F at 5:18 AM EDT.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest lane today. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and smooth nearshore water for the stretch from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile Bridge.

That puts the Islamorada reef line in play. Molasses and Conch get the same calm-water call as Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee. The further west reefs are not rougher on paper this morning.

With this little wind, anchoring should be easy. But the chum slick still has to run right. If the current lays out clean, yellowtail should respond. If the slick hangs under the boat, do not sit there feeding the bottom.

straits of florida

The Straits have east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet. NOAA lists the wave detail as east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds.

That is fishable water offshore, but it is not a free pass to wander. The close Gulf Stream edge makes Molasses and Alligator interesting for a short look. It does not make dead water any less dead.

Look for birds, flyers, weed, bait, color, or a real edge before giving the outside much time. If the reef bite is working, make it pay.

florida bay

Florida Bay has southeast wind near 5 knots and smooth bay waters today. It is comfortable on top. Underneath, the heat is doing what late August does.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay showed 90.7 F water at 5:18 AM EDT. That is hot before breakfast. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still possible, but the bay side needs early moving water, deeper lanes, and clean edges. Midday skinny water is a tough bet.

tides for saturday, august 22

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
High	4:38 AM EDT	1.231 ft	early high
Low	11:47 AM EDT	0.374 ft	late morning low
High	5:41 PM EDT	1.282 ft	afternoon high
Low	12:20 AM EDT Sunday	0.635 ft	overnight low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	8:24 AM EDT	1.051 ft	morning high
Low	3:48 PM EDT	0.092 ft	afternoon low

For the reef, the late morning low is the hinge. The falling water into 11:47 AM may be decent if it is clean, but I like the push toward the 5:41 PM high better for a steady chum slick. Do not waste the slack. Use it to reset.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets one of the better marks today. Hawk Channel is 1 foot or less, and NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light.

That puts the outside water close enough to inspect without turning the day into a fuel bill. Still, I would start with the reef. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current straightens out after the low. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gathers in the slick.

If the outside shows birds, weed, bait, or color, take a look. If it is just pretty blue nothing, get back to work.

conch reef

Conch should be comfortable in today’s light southeast to east breeze. The sea state is not the issue. The question is whether the current gives you a proper slick.

Yellowtail are the first play in 50 to 80 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair around hard bottom. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth soaking, but keep the main program moving if the smaller fish start eating.

davis reef

Davis is the easy half-day call. Short ride, small water, and enough structure to keep a mixed crew busy without turning the morning into a boat ride.

Fish 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around ledges and patchy bottom. If the current gets lazy around the late morning low, change depth or wait for the afternoon push before you burn through chum.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. Light wind lets you set the boat where it belongs, which helps when the current is the thing you are really fishing.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good if the slick stretches. Muttons are fair deeper with fresh cut bait or a lively offering. If the water quits, pick up and move. A perfect anchor set does not matter if nothing is eating.

alligator reef

Alligator gets a strong all-around mark. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, and the reef side is small enough to fish clean.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge, especially when the tide starts pushing after the 11:47 AM Whale Harbor low. The outside is worth a short look if the life is obvious.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today with Hawk Channel at 1 foot or less and nearshore waters smooth. From Islamorada it is a longer run than Davis, Crocker, or Alligator, so I would not pass up biting fish to prove a point.

If you are already pointed that way, fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. The deeper side gives a fair mutton shot. Keep it simple and let the water earn your time.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with clean chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and patch reef edges
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge around tide movement
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early deeper current edges and clean water
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay-side water with current
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade today. The sea state is right, and the afternoon tide gives the reef a better shot if the current lays out.

Mangroves and muttons are fair. Not automatic. Put baits where they belong and keep the rest of the boat fishing.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is tight to Molasses and Alligator. The ocean still needs to show you something real. A calm ride over empty water is still empty water.

The bay is heat limited. With Vaca Key at 90.7 F before sunrise, early moving water is the whole deal for bonefish, permit, and tarpon.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the clean half-day call. Crocker and Alligator are stronger snapper plays if the tide behaves. Molasses has the best close-blue-water angle, but I would not leave biting yellowtail just because the Stream edge is nearby.

Conch is steady. Tennessee is fine if you are already headed west. Today is not a rough-water problem. It is a current, heat, and patience problem.

Set up clean, fish light enough, and move when the water quits. Small seas make the day comfortable. They do not put fish in the box by themselves.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:29 AM EDT. Nothing ugly showed up, but the wind has slid a little more south in the close water.

Hawk Channel is now southeast to south near 5 knots this afternoon, with seas around 1 foot and smooth nearshore water. That is a small change from the early forecast, which had east to southeast near 5 knots and seas 1 foot or less. The reef ride still looks easy. The boat may just sit a little different on the hook if that south angle holds.

Florida Bay also came around to southeast to south near 5 knots, with bay waters smooth and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Same comfort call as this morning, just a touch more south in the breeze.

The Straits did not really change. NOAA still has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 3 seconds this afternoon. That keeps the outside look fishable, but still honest. If there is no weed, bait, birds, or edge, do not let calm water talk you into a long empty ride.

Tonight the breeze is forecast to stay light, then nudge up to 5 to 10 knots. Hawk Channel stays around 1 foot, the Straits stay 1 to 2 feet, and the rain chance remains slight. The setup is still reef first, with a short outside look only if the water earns it.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT and updated 10:29 AM EDT Saturday, August 22, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA observations from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station VCAF1, Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 19, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.

evening addendum, 4:29 PM forecast

NOAA Key West put out the afternoon coastal waters forecast at 4:29 PM EDT, and the day stayed in the small-water lane. The wind never really got enough bite to make the reef ride the problem. It was still August fishing, light breeze, hot water, and a current that had to do its job if you wanted the chum line to mean anything.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is forecast east to southeast near 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots and becoming southeast late. Seas stay around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are still workable. NOAA has east wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight, with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds. That is not a rough forecast, but it is still open water, so the outside only deserves time if the signs are there.

Florida Bay stays soft on top tonight. Southeast wind near 5 knots increases to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters go from smooth to a light chop, with the same slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The afternoon recap is pretty plain. Reef first was the right call. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, Molasses, and Tennessee all had fishable water if the current behaved. The close Gulf Stream edge still keeps Molasses and Alligator interesting, but calm water by itself does not make an offshore bite. Birds, weed, bait, color, or a hard edge still have to show up.

tomorrow’s outlook

Sunday looks like another fishable Islamorada day. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, seas around 1 foot, and smooth nearshore waters. Florida Bay has southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots, with bay waters smooth to a light chop. Both zones carry only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits get east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots Sunday, with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. That keeps the outside in play for a short look, especially with the Gulf Stream edge listed 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of August 19.

My first stop tomorrow would still be the reef. Yellowtail remain the cleanest bet in 40 to 75 feet if the slick lays out. Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons get a fair shot deeper when the boat sits right. Mahi are a maybe, not a plan, unless the edge has real life on it.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:29 PM EDT Saturday, August 22, 2026. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 19, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.