Captain's log, August 23, 2026, light south breeze, small reef seas, hot bay water

Sunday, August 23. NOAA Key West put out the coastal waters forecast at 4:25 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets another small-water August day. The wind is light. The seas are friendly. The water is hot enough to make you respect the early bite and quit pretending noon on the flats is the same thing as dawn.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable and decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop back to smooth, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

That covers the reef line we care about today: Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee. On paper they all sit under the same comfortable sea state. The difference will be current, water color, and whether the chum slick actually lays out behind the boat.

The Straits are still in play. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. That is not a big ocean. It is small, short-period water, and it still deserves a look before you decide to run around all morning.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	southeast to south 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel, easing near 5 knots
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, smooth to a light chop becoming smooth
Straits	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet
Florida Bay	southeast to south 5 to 10 knots easing near 5 knots, bay waters smooth to a light chop becoming smooth
Rain	slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 91.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Reef buoy	station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef, 0.7 ft seas and 87.4 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef comfort, fair outside look, heat limited bay

Long Key reported south wind around 8.0 knots with gusts near 11.1 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Sombrero Key reported southeast wind around 7.0 knots with gusts near 8.9 knots at the same time. That lines up with the forecast pretty well. Light, but not glass-flat everywhere.

Station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef had seas near 0.7 feet at 5:30 AM EDT, with an average period of 2.2 seconds and water temperature at 87.4 F. Small chop. Warm reef water. No big swell hiding in the data.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the comfort lane today. The forecast is southeast to south 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable and easing near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, and nearshore waters settle smooth by the afternoon wording.

That is good water for a reef trip. It should be easy enough to anchor clean and keep folks fishing without getting beat up. The catch is the light wind. When the breeze goes soft and variable, the boat can sit funny against the current. If the slick falls under the hull, do not spend an hour blaming the fish.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all get the same sea call today. Pick the reef by water, tide, and traffic. Not by a pretty idea you had while drinking coffee.

straits of florida

The Straits are forecast east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. NOAA lists the wave detail as east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds.

That is manageable offshore water. The Gulf Stream note from NOAA is worth reading too. As of August 19, the shoreward edge was 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That puts current and blue water close to the upper reef line.

Close does not mean automatic. It means look for signs. Birds, flyers, weed, bait, a color change, or current that actually shows. If the reef bite is working, make it count before turning a good morning into sightseeing.

florida bay

Florida Bay has southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots, decreasing to near 5 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming smooth. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 91.0 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is hot water before sunrise. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still possible, but the bay side is an early moving-water deal. Clean edges, channels, bridges, and shade matter. Midday shallow water in late August can get mean fast.

tides for sunday, august 23

Whale Harbor Channel gives the clean ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	12:20 AM EDT	0.635 ft	overnight low
High	5:40 AM EDT	1.251 ft	early high
Low	12:41 PM EDT	0.350 ft	midday low
High	6:37 PM EDT	1.332 ft	evening high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay-side tide read.

event	time	height	notes
High	9:19 AM EDT	1.049 ft	morning high
Low	4:51 PM EDT	0.136 ft	late afternoon low

For the reef, the midday low at Whale Harbor is the pivot. The morning outgoing water can fish if it stays clean. I like the turn and the push toward the 6:37 PM high for a better chum line, especially if the current straightens out after lunch.

For the bay, the water falls most of the afternoon. With 91.0 F water at Vaca Key early this morning, I would rather fish the bay early and be picky. Hot water and slack water together are a bad bargain.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets the most interesting outside-water angle today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of August 19, and station 41122 southeast of the reef is showing small seas and 87.4 F water.

Start with the reef unless the outside is screaming at you. Yellowtail snapper should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current lays out. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gets stacked in the slick. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth soaking, but do not let it turn the whole boat into spectators.

conch reef

Conch should be comfortable with the Hawk Channel forecast. Light south to southeast breeze, around 1 foot seas, and smooth nearshore water by the afternoon all help the anchor set.

Yellowtail are the first play in 50 to 80 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure and harder bottom. If the current gets lazy around the midday low, change depth or reset. Sitting still in dead water is how bait disappears without rent being paid.

davis reef

Davis is the easy half-day call. Short ride, small seas, and enough reef to keep a mixed crew busy without making a production out of it.

Work 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around ledges and patchy structure. The key today is keeping the slick honest. If the wind turns variable and the boat starts wandering, move before the bite gets sloppy.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. The sea state is forgiving, and the afternoon push after the Whale Harbor low could set up a better line behind the boat.

Fish 55 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Muttons are fair on the deeper side when the bait is clean. Ceros are fair if bait shows up. If the current runs weak, lighten up and keep the chum steady instead of dumping half the box in one panic.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better all-around calls. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, and Hawk Channel is small enough to fish clean.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge, especially once the tide turns and starts pushing toward the evening high. The outside is worth a look if the water has life, not just blue color.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. Seas around 1 foot and light wind make it a reasonable ride, though it is still farther west from Islamorada than Davis, Crocker, or Alligator.

If you are already pointed that way, keep it simple. Yellowtail and mangroves in 40 to 70 feet. A fair mutton shot deeper. Do not run past good water just because Tennessee looked good in your head last night.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with steady chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and patch reef edges
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge around the tide change
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early deeper current edges and clean water
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay-side water with current
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade today. The water is small enough to set up right, and the tide gives you something to work with after the midday low.

Muttons and mangroves are fair. Put the right bait in the right place and keep the rest of the spread working. Ceros are a good bonus if the bait piles up behind the boat.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is close near Molasses and Alligator. Still, I would not burn the morning offshore unless the ocean gives you a reason. Pretty blue water without birds or bait is just expensive scenery.

The bay is heat limited. With Vaca Key at 91.0 F before sunrise, early is the window. After that, shade and moving water matter more than optimism.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the clean half-day move. Crocker and Alligator are stronger snapper plays if the current behaves. Molasses has the best outside-water angle, but do not leave biting fish to go chase a rumor.

Conch is steady. Tennessee is fine if you are already headed west. Today is not a rough-water problem. It is a current problem and a heat problem.

Set up clean. Watch the sky. Move when the water quits. Small seas make the day comfortable, but they do not put fish in the box by themselves.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:22 AM EDT. The day has not changed much, which is good news if you already built the plan around light water.

For Hawk Channel, the afternoon call is still southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable and decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas stay around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop back to smooth, with only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are also holding close to the morning read. NOAA still has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, seas 1 to 2 feet, and wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Tonight is where the breeze gets a little more organized, with east wind 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots and seas building to around 2 feet.

Florida Bay eased a touch in the wording. Southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots decreases to near 5 knots this afternoon, and bay waters smooth out. That is comfortable water, but it is still August-hot water. Fish the moving pieces and do not marry a dead spot.

The practical call stays the same. Reef trips are still the best use of the day. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses remain comfortable. If you are looking outside, do it with your eyes open for birds, bait, weed, and current, not just because the chart says the Stream edge is close.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:25 AM EDT and updated 10:22 AM EDT Sunday, August 23, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observations from Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 19, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.

evening addendum, 4:25 PM forecast

NOAA Key West put out the afternoon coastal waters forecast at 4:25 PM EDT, and the day stayed in the same small-water groove. Light breeze, manageable seas, and enough heat in the system to keep everybody honest.

The afternoon recap is simple. The reef was never a rough-water problem today. It was a current and heat problem. When the breeze gets this light, the boat can sit lazy on the hook and the chum line can get sloppy. That is when you either make a clean reset or you sit there feeding bait to nothing.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile is forecast southeast to south 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast and increasing to near 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop to a steady light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are still reasonable tonight. NOAA has southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast and increasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, building to around 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is still fishable water, but it is not a reason to wander around in the dark looking for a miracle.

Florida Bay stays comfortable on top tonight. East to southeast winds run 5 to 10 knots and increase to near 10 knots. Bay waters go from smooth to a light chop to a light chop. Same slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

tomorrow’s outlook

Monday looks like another workable August day. Hawk Channel has east to southeast winds near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light chop. NOAA keeps only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

The Straits call is east to southeast near 10 knots with seas around 2 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is a fair outside look if the water shows birds, bait, weed, or a real color edge. If it does not, do not make the ocean more complicated than it is.

Monday night gets a touch more breeze offshore. The Straits go east at 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. Hawk Channel stays east near 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. That is still not ugly, but it is enough to make me prefer getting the best work done earlier in the day.

Florida Bay on Monday and Monday night is east to southeast near 10 knots with a light chop and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The bay will still be a heat game. Early moving water, clean edges, and no romance about skinny water after it bakes.

The call for Monday is reef first again. Davis for the easy half-day. Crocker and Alligator if you want a stronger snapper shot and the current lines up. Molasses gets the best short outside look because the Gulf Stream edge is still listed tight to that upper reef line, 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of August 19.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:25 PM EDT Sunday, August 23, 2026. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 19, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.