Captain's log, August 24, 2026, light east breeze, small reef seas, hot bay water

Monday, August 24. NOAA Key West put out the coastal waters forecast at 4:28 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets another workable August morning. The wind is light but more organized than yesterday. The reef line has small water on top. The bay is hot early, which means fish the moving pieces and do not get sentimental about dead water.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has southeast wind near 5 knots becoming east to southeast and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

That covers Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs. Same general sea state across the line today. The better reef will be the one with clean current, decent color, and enough life in the slick to keep the fish honest.

The Straits are also reasonable. NOAA has east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is short-period water, not a long swell. It can still slap a little in the wrong spot, but this is not a rough-water forecast.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots after a light southeast start
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, smooth becoming smooth to a light chop
Straits	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet
Florida Bay	southeast near 5 knots becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots
Rain	chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 91.2 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Reef buoy	station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef, 0.7 ft seas and 87.1 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef comfort, fair outside look, heat limited bay

Long Key reported southeast wind around 5.1 knots with gusts near 7.0 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Sombrero Key reported east-northeast wind around 4.1 knots with gusts near 6.0 knots at the same time. Light air, but enough direction to work with.

Station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef had seas near 0.7 feet at 5:30 AM EDT, with an average period of 2.5 seconds and water temperature at 87.1 F. That is small reef water. It is not glass-flat, but it is comfortable enough to set up and fish without beating people up.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the easy lane today. The forecast starts with southeast wind near 5 knots, then turns east to southeast and increases to 5 to 10 knots. Seas stay around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to smooth with a light chop.

That is good water for a reef trip. Anchor work should be clean if the current gives you a fair line. The only headache is light wind versus tide. When the boat does not sit right, the slick gets crooked and the bite gets weird. Move sooner than your pride wants you to.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all get the same comfort grade. Good ride. Good setup potential. The choice is not about which reef sounds pretty, it is about where the water is moving the right way.

straits of florida

The Straits are forecast east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. NOAA lists the wave detail as east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds.

That is a fair outside look. The Gulf Stream edge note from NOAA is still worth keeping in the back pocket. As of August 19, the shoreward edge was 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That puts blue water and current close to the upper reef line on paper.

Paper does not catch fish. Birds, bait, weed, color, or a good edge need to show before you turn the whole morning into a ride. If the reef is biting, make the reef count.

florida bay

Florida Bay has southeast winds near 5 knots becoming east to southeast and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters start smooth, then become smooth to a light chop. NOAA has a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 91.2 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot before breakfast. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still be caught in August, but the bay is an early moving-water game. Once the skinny water bakes, you need shade, depth, current, or a different plan.

tides for monday, august 24

Whale Harbor Channel gives the clean ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	1:12 AM EDT	0.585 ft	overnight low
High	6:38 AM EDT	1.301 ft	early high
Low	1:29 PM EDT	0.303 ft	early afternoon low
High	7:26 PM EDT	1.404 ft	evening high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay-side tide read.

event	time	height	notes
High	10:16 AM EDT	1.070 ft	late morning high
Low	5:32 PM EDT	0.203 ft	late afternoon low

For the reef, the early high is already in the rearview by most dock times. The water falls through lunch, then starts working back toward the 7:26 PM high. I would watch the outgoing this morning and be ready to reset when the line starts to fade.

For the bay, the late morning high and afternoon fall are the story. With water over 91 F before sunrise at Vaca Key, the best window is early and disciplined. Hot water and slack water together are not your friend.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses has the best outside-water angle again. NOAA lists the Gulf Stream edge 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of August 19, and station 41122 southeast of the reef is showing small seas and 87.1 F water.

Yellowtail snapper should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current lays out behind the boat. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gets stacked in the slick. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth fishing, but do not let one rod stop the whole program.

If the outside shows birds or a real edge, take a look. If it only looks pretty, stay on the meat.

conch reef

Conch should fish comfortably under this forecast. Light east to southeast wind and around 1 foot seas give you room to anchor without drama.

Yellowtail are the first play in 50 to 80 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure and harder bottom. If the chum line gets lazy around the afternoon low, change depth or slide until the current behaves.

davis reef

Davis is the clean half-day call. Short ride, small seas, and enough bottom to keep a mixed crew busy.

Work 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around ledges and patchy structure. Ceros are possible if bait shows. The lighter breeze means the boat may hunt around on the hook, so keep an eye on the slick instead of assuming the setup is still right.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. The sea state is friendly, and the afternoon push after the Whale Harbor low could clean up the line behind the boat.

Fish 55 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Muttons are fair on the deeper side when the bait is clean and the current is not dead. If the water goes flat and lifeless, do not feed it all day. Move, reset, or fish lighter.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the stronger all-around calls. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of August 19, and Hawk Channel is small enough to work the reef clean.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge, especially once the tide starts pushing back toward the evening high. The outside is worth checking only if the water has signs of life.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. Seas around 1 foot and light east to southeast wind make the ride reasonable, though it is still farther west from Islamorada than Davis, Crocker, or Alligator.

If you are already pointed that way, keep it simple. Yellowtail and mangroves in 40 to 70 feet. A fair mutton shot deeper. Do not run past good water just because a farther reef feels like a better story.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with steady chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and patch reef edges
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge around the tide change
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early deeper current edges and clean water
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat stacks up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay-side water with current
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade today. The reef water is small enough to let you fish properly, and the tide gives you something to work with once the afternoon turn starts.

Mangroves and muttons are fair. Put good bait where it belongs and keep the chum steady. Ceros are a bonus if bait piles up behind the boat.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is listed close near Molasses and Alligator. Still, I would not build the day around offshore unless the ocean shows birds, bait, weed, or a clean edge. Blue water with no life is just a fuel bill.

The bay is heat limited. Vaca Key at 91.2 F before sunrise says everything you need to know. Fish early, fish moving water, then quit arguing with August.

captain’s call

Reef first. Davis for the easy half-day. Crocker and Alligator for a stronger snapper shot if the current lines up. Molasses has the best short outside look because the Stream edge is listed tight to that upper reef line.

Conch is steady. Tennessee is fine if you are already running west. The day is not rough. It is light, hot, and current-dependent.

Set up clean. Watch the sky. Move when the slick quits working. Comfortable seas make the day easier, but the fish still make you earn it.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:13 AM EDT. No big swing, just a little more shape to the breeze after the soft morning start.

Hawk Channel is now east to southeast 5 to 10 knots for the afternoon, with seas still around 1 foot and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. That is about the same comfort call, but the wind is more settled instead of starting near 5 knots first.

The Straits did not really change. East to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, wave detail east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Still fishable outside if the water gives you birds, weed, bait, or a clean edge. Still not worth burning the morning on empty blue water.

Florida Bay also filled in to east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, with bay waters smooth to a light chop. The rain wording is still a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, so keep one eye west and do not get lazy around building clouds.

The evening setup nudged a hair choppier in the nearshore forecast. Hawk Channel tonight stays east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots, with seas around 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet. Not rough, just not quite as sleepy as daybreak.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:28 AM EDT and updated 10:13 AM EDT Monday, August 24, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observations from Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 19, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.

evening addendum, 4:23 PM forecast

NOAA Key West put out the afternoon coastal waters forecast at 4:23 PM EDT. No drama in the numbers, but there is a little more overnight shape to the breeze and better rain coverage showing up as the week starts moving.

The afternoon recap stays pretty close to the morning call. This was small-water reef weather, not a rough-water problem. Hawk Channel held the easy lane on paper, and the better fishing depended on current, clean color, and whether the boat sat right on the hook. Light wind can make a pretty forecast fish ugly if the slick will not line up.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile is forecast east to southeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop. NOAA keeps a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

The Straits are still reasonable tonight. East to southeast winds are near 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet building to around 2 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is short-period chop, not a long swell. Fishable water, but not magic water by itself.

Florida Bay stays comfortable on top tonight. East to southeast winds run 5 to 10 knots, with bay waters smooth to a light chop and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The bay is still hot, so the good pieces are the same ones from this morning. Moving water, shade, depth, and no patience for dead flats.

tomorrow’s outlook

Tuesday looks workable again. Hawk Channel is forecast east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. NOAA has a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The Straits call for Tuesday is east to southeast winds near 10 knots and seas around 2 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is a fair outside look if there are birds, bait, weed, or a real edge. If the outside is empty, stay honest and put the reef to work.

Tuesday night gets a touch choppier offshore. The Straits go east to southeast 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet and wave detail east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Hawk Channel also bumps to 10 to 15 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet building to around 2 feet and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. Not terrible, just enough to make the earlier window look better.

Florida Bay on Tuesday starts east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots, with smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Tuesday night is near 10 knots and a light chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The call for Tuesday is reef first again. Davis is still the clean half-day move. Crocker and Alligator get the nod if the current lays out and the water has life. Molasses keeps the best short outside angle because the Gulf Stream edge is still listed 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of August 19.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:23 PM EDT Monday, August 24, 2026. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 19, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.