Captain's log, August 25, 2026, east breeze, small reef water, hot bay

Tuesday, August 25. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:28 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets another fishable August setup. The Atlantic high is still in charge, so the wind is doing the normal summer thing. East to southeast, peaking overnight and early, then easing back during the afternoon.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots today. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

That covers Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs. The ride is not the problem today. Current, water color, and whether the boat sits right on the hook will decide more than the forecast headline.

The Straits are a little more open but still reasonable. NOAA has east wind near 10 knots today with seas around 2 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 4 seconds. Short-period water, not swell. It can slap you some, but this is fishable weather if the sky behaves.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel, east near 10 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, smooth to a light chop
Straits	seas around 2 feet, east 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	east 5 to 10 knots becoming east to southeast near 10 knots
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Reef buoy	station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef, 0.7 ft seas and 87.3 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef comfort, fair outside look, heat limited bay

Long Key reported southeast wind around 8.0 knots with gusts near 12.1 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Sombrero Key reported east-southeast wind around 6.0 knots with gusts near 8.0 knots at 5:30 AM EDT. That lines up with the forecast, light but organized.

Station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef showed seas near 0.7 feet at 5:30 AM EDT, with an average period of 2.1 seconds and water temperature at 87.3 F. Small water on the buoy. Still short-period chop, so do not expect glass outside the reef.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the comfortable lane today. East to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, smooth to a light chop nearshore.

That is good enough for a proper reef trip. Anchor work should be clean unless wind and tide start fighting each other. When that happens, the slick gets sideways and the bite turns dumb. Do not feed a bad setup just because the boat ride was easy.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all get a good comfort grade. The best reef is the one with moving water and life behind the boat.

straits of florida

The Straits are forecast east near 10 knots with seas around 2 feet. NOAA lists the wave detail as east 2 feet at 4 seconds.

That is a fair outside look. The Gulf Stream edge note from NOAA still matters. As of August 19, the shoreward edge was 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That puts current close to the upper reef line on paper.

Paper is not enough. If you see birds, bait, weed, a color change, or a real edge, take a look. If it is empty blue water, make the reef pay.

florida bay

Florida Bay has east winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast and increasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters go from smooth to a light chop. NOAA keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 90.7 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot before the day even starts swinging. The bay can still produce, but it is an early moving-water game. Once the skinny water bakes, you need shade, depth, current, or a new plan.

tides for tuesday, august 25

Whale Harbor Channel gives the clean ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	1:58 AM EDT	0.509 ft	overnight low
High	7:30 AM EDT	1.371 ft	early high
Low	2:13 PM EDT	0.249 ft	afternoon low
High	8:09 PM EDT	1.480 ft	evening high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay-side tide read.

event	time	height	notes
High	11:15 AM EDT	1.105 ft	late morning high
Low	6:03 PM EDT	0.287 ft	evening low

For the reef, the early high is the first window. The water falls through lunch into the 2:13 PM low, then starts working back toward the evening high. If the current quits on one piece of bottom, move before the day turns into chum practice.

For the bay, the late morning high and long afternoon fall are the main shape. With the water already over 90 F at Vaca Key, the cleanest shot is early and disciplined.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets the best short outside angle today. NOAA lists the Gulf Stream edge 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of August 19, and the southeast Molasses buoy is showing small water.

Yellowtail snapper should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current lays out behind the boat. Cero mackerel are fair when bait stacks in the chum. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth soaking, but do not let one rod hold the whole crew hostage.

If the outside has life, peek at it. If it only looks pretty, stay on the reef and box dinner.

conch reef

Conch should fish comfortably under this forecast. Light east to southeast wind and around 1 foot in Hawk Channel give you room to anchor without much drama.

Yellowtail are the main play in 50 to 80 feet. Mangroves are fair around hard bottom and structure. If the outgoing gets lazy around the afternoon low, change depth or slide until the line straightens out.

davis reef

Davis is the clean half-day call. Short ride, easy sea state, and enough bottom to keep a mixed group busy.

Work 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around ledges and patchy stuff. Ceros are possible if bait shows. The lighter breeze means the boat can hunt on the hook, so watch the slick instead of assuming it is still working.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. The sea state is friendly, and the afternoon push after the Whale Harbor low could give you a better line behind the boat.

Fish 55 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Muttons are fair on the deeper side when the bait is clean and the current is not dead. If the water goes flat and lifeless, do not donate bait all day.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the stronger all-around calls. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of August 19, and Hawk Channel is small enough to work clean.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair. Mutton snapper are fair deeper, especially once the tide starts pushing back toward the evening high. The outside is worth checking only if the water shows signs of life.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. Seas around 1 foot in Hawk Channel and light east to southeast wind make the ride reasonable, even though it is farther west from Islamorada.

If you are already pointed that way, keep it simple. Yellowtail and mangroves in 40 to 70 feet. A fair mutton shot deeper. Do not run past good water just because a farther reef sounds like a better story.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with steady chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges, patch edges, and harder bottom
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge around the tide change
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early deeper current edges and clean water
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat stacks up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay-side water with current
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade again. The reef water is small enough to fish right, and the tide gives you a morning high, an afternoon low, then a clean evening push.

Mangroves and muttons are fair. Good bait matters. So does not sitting in dead current pretending the fish owe you something.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is listed tight near Molasses and Alligator. I would not build the whole trip around offshore unless the ocean shows life. Birds, bait, weed, color. Something real.

The bay is heat limited. Vaca Key at 90.7 F before sunrise tells the story. Fish early, fish moving water, then stop arguing with August.

captain’s call

Reef first. Davis for the easy half-day. Crocker and Alligator if you want the stronger snapper shot and the current lines up. Molasses has the best short outside look because NOAA still lists the Stream edge tight to that upper reef line.

Conch is steady. Tennessee is fine if you are already headed west. The forecast is comfortable, but light wind can still make the boat sit wrong. Watch the slick, watch the sky, move when the setup quits talking.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:18 AM EDT. The reef lane is still fine, but the outside got a little more bite than the daybreak package.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile is now east to southeast near 10 knots for the afternoon. Seas stay around 1 foot and nearshore waters are a light chop. The morning forecast had 5 to 10 knots and smooth to a light chop, so this is not a big change. It is just less sleepy.

The Straits are the real nudge. This morning NOAA had east wind near 10 knots and seas around 2 feet. The midday update has east wind 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet, with wave detail east 2 feet at 4 seconds. Still fishable, but that short-period slap will be more noticeable outside the reef.

Florida Bay also firmed up a touch. The morning call was east 5 to 10 knots becoming east to southeast near 10 knots, with smooth to a light chop. The updated afternoon call is east to southeast near 10 knots and a light chop. Hot water is still the bigger issue back there.

The rain wording did not clean up. NOAA keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms across Hawk Channel, the Straits, and the bay. Keep the radar honest, especially with the afternoon heat working on it.

Tonight and Wednesday still point to a little more breeze, especially Wednesday night when NOAA expects mostly moderate east to southeast breezes across the Keys waters. Reef first remains the call. If you poke outside, make the ocean show you something before you keep burning fuel.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:25 PM EDT. The setup did not fall apart. It just settled into that late-August pattern where the Atlantic high keeps an easterly hand on the wheel, the breeze breathes up at night, then backs off some in the afternoon.

Hawk Channel tonight is east to southeast near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light chop. That is a normal reef ride, not flat calm, but nothing ugly on paper. The shower and thunderstorm chance stays in the forecast, so the sky still gets a vote.

The Straits are a little sportier. NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 4 seconds. That is short-period water. Fishable if you have a reason to be there, annoying if you are just wandering.

Florida Bay stays manageable tonight with east to southeast wind near 10 knots and bay waters a light chop. The heat is still the bigger bay problem. If the water is baked and still, do not argue with it for long.

For the afternoon recap, the midday call held close enough. Reef water stayed the safer play, and the outside was the kind of look where you make one honest check for birds, weed, bait, or color. If the ocean showed nothing, the reef deserved the time.

wednesday outlook

Wednesday keeps the same east to southeast flow, with a little more push than today in the nearshore lanes.

zone	wednesday call
Florida Bay	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, light to moderate chop
Hawk Channel	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, seas around 2 feet, light to moderate chop
Straits	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots decreasing to near 10 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Overall call	fair to good reef weather, fair outside, watch Wednesday night breeze

For the reef, Wednesday is still workable. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses all stay in play if the current lines up. Expect a little more chop on the ride and a little more swing on the hook. That is not a deal breaker, it just means the setup matters.

The Straits can be fished, but it needs a real reason. NOAA has 2 to 3 feet out there with short-period east to southeast wave energy. If there is a clean edge tight to the reef, bait under birds, or a weed line with life on it, take the shot. If not, put chum in the water and make dinner happen.

Wednesday night is the part to watch. NOAA expects east to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots in Hawk Channel, and the Straits build from 2 to 3 feet to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. That is not the window to pretend the ocean is getting nicer.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:28 AM EDT, updated 10:18 AM EDT, and updated again at 4:25 PM EDT Tuesday, August 25, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observations from Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 19, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.