Captain's log, August 26, 2026, southeast breeze, fishable reef water

Wednesday, August 26. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 10:17 PM EDT Tuesday night, and Islamorada gets another workable reef day with a little more push in the breeze.

The Atlantic high is still running the pattern. East to southeast wind, peaking overnight and early, then easing some in the afternoon. NOAA is also keeping daily chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, so the ride is one part of it and the sky is the other.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots today. Seas are around 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

That covers Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs. Fishable, not glass. The reef line should be fine for a charter that pays attention to current and clouds, but it is not the day to sleepwalk through the anchor set.

The Straits are open enough to feel it. NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots today. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with wave detail east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is short water. It can be fished, but it needs a reason.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots in Hawk Channel, easing near 10 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas around 2 feet, light to moderate chop
Straits	seas 2 to 3 feet, east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds
Florida Bay	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, light to moderate chop
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Reef buoy	station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef, 2.0 ft seas and 87.3 F water at 4:30 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef shot, fair outside, bay heat still high

Long Key reported southeast wind around 9.9 knots with gusts near 12.1 knots at 4:50 AM EDT. Sombrero Key reported southeast wind around 9.9 knots with gusts near 13.0 knots at 5:00 AM EDT. That matches the forecast, enough breeze to put texture on the water without making the reef a mess.

Station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef showed seas near 2.0 feet at 4:30 AM EDT, with a dominant period of 4 seconds and an average period of 2.9 seconds. Water temperature there was 87.3 F. Small enough to work, tight enough to keep the ride honest.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the main lane today. East to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, seas around 2 feet, and a light to moderate chop nearshore.

That is good reef weather for a boat that is set up right. It is not lazy weather. The wind and tide can make the boat hunt on the hook, especially on the smaller pieces of bottom. If the chum is not laying behind the boat, fix it or move.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all stay in play. The closer, cleaner calls are Davis, Crocker, and Alligator. Molasses has the better short outside look if the water shows life.

straits of florida

The Straits are forecast at 2 to 3 feet today. NOAA lists the wave detail as east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds.

That is fair, not pretty. The Gulf Stream edge note from NOAA still matters. As of August 19, the shoreward edge was 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That puts moving blue water tight to the upper reef line on paper.

Paper does not catch fish. Birds, weed, bait, a color change, or a hard current edge can make it worth a look. If the outside is empty and bouncy, stop donating fuel and make the reef produce.

florida bay

Florida Bay has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots today. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 90.5 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before breakfast. The bay can still give you shots, but the plan needs moving water and discipline. Once the shallows bake, the fish get picky and the humans get cranky.

tides for wednesday, august 26

Whale Harbor Channel gives the clean ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	2:40 AM EDT	0.419 ft	overnight low
High	8:17 AM EDT	1.448 ft	morning high
Low	2:54 PM EDT	0.201 ft	afternoon low
High	8:49 PM EDT	1.549 ft	evening high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay-side tide read.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:18 AM EDT	0.871 ft	early high
Low	5:23 AM EDT	0.787 ft	small early drop
High	12:18 PM EDT	1.144 ft	midday high
Low	6:34 PM EDT	0.375 ft	evening low

For the reef, the morning high is the first good window. The water falls into the 2:54 PM low, then starts working back toward the evening high. That afternoon switch can save a slow bite if the current lines up right.

For the bay, the midday high and afternoon fall are the shape. With water temperature already at 90.5 F, I would rather be early, shaded, or near deeper moving water than roasting a flat that has gone still.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses is fishable today, but it is not the softest ride on the list. The southeast Molasses buoy had 2.0 feet at 4 seconds early this morning, and NOAA still lists the Gulf Stream edge tight to the area as of August 19.

Yellowtail snapper should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current lays out clean behind the boat. Cero mackerel are fair when bait stacks up in the slick. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth soaking, but do not let that one rod slow the whole program.

If the outside edge has birds or bait, take a look. If it is just pretty blue water with nothing working, the reef is the better bet.

conch reef

Conch gets a steady grade. The sea state is fishable, and the east to southeast wind gives enough direction to build a chum line when the tide is moving.

Yellowtail are the main play in 50 to 80 feet. Mangroves are fair around harder bottom and ledges. If the current dies near the afternoon low, change depth before the bite turns into a staring contest.

davis reef

Davis is one of the cleaner half-day calls. Shorter ride, manageable chop, and enough good bottom to keep a mixed crew busy.

Work 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around structure. Cero mackerel are possible if the bait shows. Watch the hook set, because a 10 to 15 knot east to southeast breeze can make the boat sit just wrong enough to ruin a good spot.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. It should be comfortable enough to fish, and the afternoon push after the Whale Harbor low may give a better line if the morning bite gets dull.

Fish 55 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Muttons are fair on the deeper side when the bait is clean and the current has some life. If the slick is curling under the boat, you are not fishing the same spot you think you are.

alligator reef

Alligator is a strong all-around call. Hawk Channel is manageable, and NOAA’s Gulf Stream note had the shoreward edge 3 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of August 19.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair. Mutton snapper are fair deeper, especially around the tide turn and the evening push. The outside is worth checking only when the ocean gives you a real sign.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but it is the longer run from Islamorada. Today is not rough enough to scare you off. It is just bumpy enough that you should have a reason to pass good closer water.

Yellowtail and mangroves are the practical play in 40 to 70 feet. A deeper mutton bait is fair. If Davis, Crocker, or Alligator has good color and current, do not run past it just to make the day sound bigger.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with steady chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges, patch edges, and harder bottom
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge around tide changes
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early deeper current edges and clean water
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat stacks up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay-side water with current
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The reef is fishable, and the tide gives you a morning high, a hard afternoon low, then a useful evening rise.

Mangroves and muttons are fair. Good bait matters. So does knowing when the water has quit moving. A dead slick is not a challenge, it is a warning.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is listed close near Molasses and Alligator, but I would not make offshore the whole plan without seeing life. Birds, weed, bait, color. Something real has to show.

The bay is heat limited again. Vaca Key at 90.5 F early tells you plenty. Fish early, fish moving water, then quit arguing with August.

captain’s call

Reef first. Davis for the easy half-day. Crocker and Alligator for the stronger snapper shot if the current lines up. Molasses is worth watching because the Stream edge is listed close, but the buoy is already showing a short 2-foot sea.

Conch is steady. Tennessee is fine if you are already pointed west. The whole day comes down to current, water color, and not pretending thunderheads are decoration.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:17 PM EDT Tuesday, August 25, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observations from Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 19, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:20 AM EDT, and the midday read is a touch softer inshore than the morning setup.

For Hawk Channel, this afternoon now reads east to southeast wind near 10 knots, seas around 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light chop. That is down from the morning 10 to 15 knot call with light to moderate chop. Same fishable reef day, just a little less bite on the ride if the clouds behave.

The Straits did not really back off. NOAA still has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, seas 2 to 3 feet, with east to southeast wave detail at 3 feet every 5 seconds. That keeps the outside in the same box as this morning. Fishable if there is a reason, not worth forcing if it is empty water and short chop.

Florida Bay also eased some. The updated forecast has east to southeast wind near 10 knots and bay waters a light chop this afternoon, compared with the morning 10 to 15 knot, light to moderate chop call. Good news for anyone staying tucked in, but the hot bay water is still part of the deal.

Tonight is where the breeze comes back. NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots across Hawk Channel and the Straits, briefly near 15 knots in spots, with the Straits holding 2 to 3 feet. Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, and any storm can make its own ugly little patch of wind and sea.

One more note from the update: the Gulf Stream edge was refreshed as of August 26. NOAA now lists it 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That still keeps the moving water close enough to watch, but the ocean has to show birds, bait, weed, or color before it earns the fuel.

Midday source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:20 AM EDT Wednesday, August 26, 2026.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:37 PM EDT, and the day is still sitting in the same August pattern. The western edge of the Atlantic high is holding control, with east to southeast breeze peaking tonight into early morning and easing again Thursday afternoon.

The afternoon stayed fishable on the reef side. Hawk Channel was still the better working lane than the open Straits, especially for snapper crews that could get the boat settled and keep the chum line stretched. The outside had enough sea on it that it needed a reason. Birds, weed, bait, color, or a hard edge. Otherwise it was just a short ride to spend fuel.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, increasing briefly to near 15 knots. Seas build from 1 to 2 feet to around 2 feet, and nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop to a moderate chop. That is not bad water, but it is not the same soft afternoon ride.

The Straits stay more honest. NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, briefly increasing to near 15 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Short-period water again. Fishable for a clean plan, annoying for wandering.

Florida Bay tonight starts east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, then increases to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters go from smooth to a light chop to a light to moderate chop. Storm chances stay in the forecast everywhere, and any thunderstorm can make its own ugly patch of wind and sea.

thursday outlook

Thursday is still a reef-first day, but it should soften a little after the morning.

zone	thursday call
Florida Bay	southeast near 10 knots, becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots
Hawk Channel	southeast near 10 knots, becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet
Straits	southeast 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas around 2 feet
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Overall call	good reef shot, fair outside, storms still matter

For Hawk Channel, Thursday gives us southeast wind near 10 knots early, becoming east to southeast and dropping to 5 to 10 knots. Seas hold 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters a light chop becoming smooth to a light chop. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, Molasses, and Tennessee all stay in play if the current is alive.

The Straits are fair, not automatic. NOAA has southeast wind 10 to 15 knots Thursday, becoming east to southeast and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, with east to southeast wave detail 2 feet at 5 seconds. That is better than tonight, but I still want signs before making offshore the whole program.

Florida Bay looks manageable on paper with southeast wind near 10 knots becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters go from a light chop to smooth to a light chop. The water has been hot all day, so the bay plan is still early, moving water, and no stubborn soaking in dead heat.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:17 PM EDT Tuesday, August 25, updated 10:20 AM EDT Wednesday, August 26, and updated again at 4:37 PM EDT Wednesday, August 26, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observations from Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and station 41122 southeast of Molasses Reef. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 26, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.