Captain's log, August 27, 2026, light southeast wind, reef water in play

Thursday, August 27. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:28 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets a better reef setup than we have had on some of these August mornings.

The Atlantic high is still holding the pattern. East to southeast breeze, a little more at night and early, then it lays down some through the afternoon. NOAA is also keeping daily showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. That part matters. A clean morning can turn ugly fast under one cell.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has southeast wind near 10 knots becoming east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots today. Seas are around 2 feet early, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light chop to smooth to a light chop.

That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in the game. Not dead flat. Good enough to work if the current behaves.

The Straits get the same easing trend. NOAA has southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east at 5 to 10 knots today. Seas start 2 to 3 feet, then settle to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	southeast near 10 knots in Hawk Channel, easing east to southeast 5 to 10 knots
Hawk Channel	seas around 2 feet early, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Straits	seas 2 to 3 feet early, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.1 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Reef buoy	station 41122 southeast of Key Largo, 2.6 ft seas and 86.9 F water at 4:30 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look, hot bay water

Long Key reported south wind around 6.0 knots with gusts near 8.9 knots at 4:50 AM EDT. Sombrero Key reported southeast wind around 6.0 knots with gusts near 8.0 knots at 4:50 AM EDT. That is softer than the headline forecast and good news for the reef ride.

Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed seas near 2.6 feet at 4:30 AM EDT, with a dominant period of 4 seconds and an average period of 3.2 seconds. Water temperature there was 86.9 F. Short-period water always feels a little busier than the number makes it sound.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest lane today. The forecast starts around 2 feet, then backs down to 1 to 2 feet as the breeze eases.

That is a good charter setup for the reef line. You still need to watch the sky and the current, but the boat should sit better than it does in a hard 15-knot easterly. If the chum lays out behind the boat, stay. If it curls under the hull, pull the hook and quit arguing with it.

Molasses and Conch are fishable. Davis and Crocker are good practical half-day calls. Alligator has a strong look if the water color is right. Tennessee is fine, but I would not run past good water just to say we ran farther.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair. NOAA has 2 to 3 feet early, settling to 1 to 2 feet. That is fishable water, but I still want a reason before spending the day outside.

NOAA lists the approximate shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream as of August 26 at 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That puts moving blue water close to the upper Keys reef line on paper.

Paper is not enough. Birds, bait, weed, color, or a hard current edge make the outside worth checking. Empty blue water with no life is just fuel leaving the tank.

florida bay

Florida Bay has southeast wind near 10 knots becoming east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots today. Bay waters go from light chop to smooth to light chop.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 90.1 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before breakfast. The bay can still produce with moving water, shade, and timing, but the easy part of the day is early.

tides for thursday, august 27

Largo Sound, Key Largo gives the ocean-side tide read close to the upper reef stretch. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	5:21 AM EDT	0.229 ft	early low
High	10:57 AM EDT	0.903 ft	late morning high
Low	5:35 PM EDT	0.118 ft	evening low
High	11:24 PM EDT	0.949 ft	late high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay-side tide read.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:44 AM EDT	0.906 ft	early high
Low	6:09 AM EDT	0.767 ft	small early drop
High	1:24 PM EDT	1.178 ft	midday high
Low	7:07 PM EDT	0.458 ft	evening low

For the reef, the late morning high and the long fall into the evening low are the shape of the day. If the current starts right, the yellowtail bite should have enough water moving to work. If it goes slack around the turn, change depth before everyone starts blaming the bait.

For the bay, the midday high is the bigger piece. With 90.1 F water already showing before sunrise, I would rather fish early or find moving water than bake on a flat.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good grade today. The Gulf Stream edge is listed close to Molasses, and the forecast gives us easing wind through the day.

Yellowtail snapper should be the main play in 45 to 75 feet. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks in the slick. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth soaking while the current is moving.

If the outside edge shows birds or a color change, take a look. If it looks pretty and empty, go back to work on the reef.

conch reef

Conch is steady. The lighter wind helps, and the reef should be comfortable enough for a mixed crew.

Fish 50 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around the harder pieces. If the current gets lazy after the late morning high, slide until the chum line starts acting right again.

davis reef

Davis is one of the better half-day calls. Shorter ride, manageable chop, and enough bottom to keep rods bent when the current lines up.

Yellowtail are good in 40 to 60 feet. Mangroves are fair. Cero mackerel are possible around bait. Keep an eye on the clouds because the lighter wind can make storms feel like they sneak up quicker.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look. The easing sea state helps, and the falling water after the late morning high should give the chum line something to work with.

Fish 55 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. If the bite stalls, do not sit there polishing the same dead number all afternoon.

alligator reef

Alligator is a strong call today. NOAA lists the Gulf Stream edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so the outside water is close enough to matter.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair. Mutton snapper are fair around the deeper reef edge, especially if the current stays clean on the fall.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable. The longer run is the only real knock today.

Yellowtail and mangroves are the practical play in 40 to 70 feet. A deeper mutton bait is fair. If Davis, Crocker, or Alligator has clean water and current, there is no prize for driving past fish.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with steady chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges, patch edges, and harder bottom
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge around tide changes
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early deeper current edges and clean water
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat stacks up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay-side water with current
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The reef is fishable, the breeze is easing, and the tide gives us a useful late morning high with falling water after it.

Mangroves and muttons are fair. Good bait matters. So does leaving a spot when the current quits.

Mahi and blackfin are fair, not a guarantee. The Stream edge is listed close near Molasses and Alligator, but I want to see life before making the outside the whole plan.

The bay is still heat limited. Vaca Key at 90.1 F says plenty. Fish the moving water and be honest about when the shallow stuff has had enough sun.

captain’s call

Reef first. Davis is the easy half-day. Crocker and Alligator are the stronger snapper calls. Molasses is worth watching because the Stream edge is tight, but I would let the ocean prove it before chasing ghosts outside.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:26 AM EDT. No ugly turn showed up in the numbers. The midday package is still calling for the afternoon breeze to ease, with southeast wind near 10 knots becoming east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel. Seas there are still around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore water going from a light chop to smooth to a light chop.

The Straits are also holding the same basic shape. NOAA has southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east and dropping to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas are 2 to 3 feet early, settling to 1 to 2 feet, with east to southeast wave detail at 2 feet and 5 seconds.

So the midday change is not a harder forecast. It is more of a confirmation. Reef water stays the smarter play, the outside is still fair if it shows life, and the thunderstorm warning is still the part to respect. Any cell can bring locally hazardous wind and seas even when the base forecast looks friendly.

evening addendum, 9:00 pm

NOAA Key West issued the afternoon coastal waters forecast at 4:15 PM EDT. The pattern did not break. The western side of the Atlantic high is still running the show, with east to southeast breeze peaking tonight into early Friday, then easing some during the day.

The afternoon recap is simple enough. The reef stayed the better bet on paper. Hawk Channel had the lighter side of the ocean forecast, while the Straits were still fishable but a little busier. That is about what this morning looked like it would do. Reef first, outside only if the water showed birds, bait, weed, color, or a real edge.

For tonight, Hawk Channel gets east to southeast wind near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters a light chop. NOAA keeps a chance of thunderstorms with a slight chance of showers. Florida Bay is east to southeast near 10 knots with a light chop. The Straits build a touch, with east winds near 10 knots becoming east to southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with east wave detail at 2 feet and 4 seconds.

Friday still looks workable out of Islamorada. Hawk Channel has east to southeast wind near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and light chop. The Straits are east to southeast near 10 knots, seas around 2 feet, with east wave detail at 2 feet and 4 seconds. Florida Bay runs 5 to 10 knots with smooth to light chop.

That points to another reef-first day. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Molasses all stay on the board if the current acts right. Yellowtail remain the cleanest call. Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are worth a bait on the deeper edge while the water is moving. The outside mahi and blackfin look is still conditional, not automatic. Make the ocean show life before burning the fuel.

The Gulf Stream note is still useful. As of August 26, NOAA lists the shoreward edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light, and 1 NM east-southeast of Carysfort Reef Light. That puts blue water close to the upper Keys reef line on paper. Paper does not catch fish, but it is enough reason to keep your eyes open.

Same warning as this morning. Daily showers and thunderstorms stay in the forecast, and NOAA expects locally hazardous winds and seas around storm activity. A base forecast of 1 to 2 feet does not matter much if you let a cell sit on top of you.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:15 PM EDT Thursday, August 27, 2026. Forecast pulled from the National Data Buoy Center Thursday evening.

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