Captain's log, August 28, 2026, east breeze, small reef seas

Friday, August 28. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:25 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line gets a workable summer setup today.

East to southeast breeze, small seas, hot water, and daily shower chances. That is August in the Keys. It is fishable, but the heat and thunderstorms still get a vote.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots today. Seas are around 1 foot, and nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop. Tonight, the wind comes northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots, then becomes east and increases to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas build from around 1 foot to around 2 feet.

The Straits are small this morning. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 10 knots becoming northeast to east and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots on Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, smooth to a light chop nearshore
Straits	seas around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Florida Bay	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, smooth to a light chop
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef morning, fair outside look, heat limited bay

Long Key reported east-southeast wind near 8 knots at 5:20 AM EDT, with air temperature 85.6 F and a heat index near 98 F. That matches the forecast pretty cleanly. It is not rough. It is just hot.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the main play today. East to southeast wind at 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot make the reef line very manageable from Molasses down through Tennessee.

The morning should ride nice. Tonight looks bumpier, with northeast to east wind building to 10 to 15 knots after midnight and seas coming up around 2 feet. That matters more if you are making a late run or planning around Saturday morning.

This kind of forecast lets you fish a clean anchor set. The catch is current. If the chum line lays back right, yellowtail should chew. If the current falls out or pushes weird across the reef, do not marry the spot. Slide, reset, and make the water tell the truth.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable on paper. Seas start around 2 feet and ease into 1 to 2 feet, with an east to southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. That is a short-period summer sea, not a big swell.

NOAA lists the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream as of August 26 at 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That puts blue water close enough to matter, especially around Molasses and Alligator.

Close water does not mean automatic mahi. If you see birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a sharp color change, take the shot. If the outside looks empty, the reef is the smarter paycheck.

florida bay

Florida Bay has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, with bay waters smooth to a light chop. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 90.5 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is hot water before breakfast. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are not off the board, but the better bay window is early moving water, channel edges, and places with a little relief. Once the sun gets high, the flats get mean.

tides for friday, august 28

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read closest to the Islamorada reef run.

event	time	height	notes
Low	3:54 AM EDT	0.235 ft	early low
High	9:42 AM EDT	1.589 ft	morning high
Low	4:10 PM EDT	0.154 ft	afternoon low
High	10:04 PM EDT	1.627 ft	night high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	4:01 AM EDT	0.931 ft	early high
Low	6:54 AM EDT	0.711 ft	morning low
High	2:27 PM EDT	1.195 ft	afternoon high
Low	7:42 PM EDT	0.532 ft	evening low

For the reef, the early push toward the 9:42 AM Whale Harbor high is the cleanest morning window. After that, watch the fall toward the 4:10 PM low. If the current keeps pulling clean, stay with it. If it dies in the heat, move before the bite gets sleepy.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good mark today. Hawk Channel is around 1 foot, and the Gulf Stream edge was listed 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light in the latest NOAA read.

That is close. It makes Molasses a strong choice for a reef-first plan with an outside peek if the water shows life. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet with steady chum and moving water. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gets stacked behind the boat.

Do not run past a good reef bite just because the Stream is nearby. Let the ocean earn that turn.

conch reef

Conch should be comfortable in this forecast. East to southeast wind at 5 to 10 knots gives you enough breeze to lay out a slick without beating up the crew.

Yellowtail are the first call in 50 to 80 feet. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure and ledges. A deeper mutton bait is worth fishing, but it should not slow down a good tail bite.

davis reef

Davis is the clean half-day choice. Short ride, small sea, and enough bottom to work if the first set does not talk back.

Fish 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair near harder bottom. Cero mackerel are possible in the slick when the bait shows. This is the place to keep the program simple and make the morning tide do the work.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look. Seas around 1 foot make the anchor work easy, and the reef line should be comfortable through the morning.

Work 55 to 80 feet and pay attention to how the current pulls. Yellowtail are good if the chum line stretches clean. Muttons are fair deeper with a live bait or fresh cut bait. If the slick curls under the boat, pick up and find better water.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better all-around calls today. The Stream edge was listed 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so you have reef, deeper edge, and an outside option without turning the trip into a blind hunt.

Yellowtail should be good from 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Mangroves are fair where the structure is right. If you get birds or weed outside, look at it. If the reef is biting, do not get cute.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable under the same Hawk Channel forecast. From Islamorada it is still a longer push than Davis, Crocker, or Alligator, so I would not pass good water just to say I went west.

If you are already running that way, fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangrove snapper. The deeper side gives you a fair mutton shot. Keep the plan tight. Hot water punishes wasted time.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with clean chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and harder bottom while water moves
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early around deeper current edges
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner moving water on the bay side
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail snapper get the best grade today. The water is small enough to set up right, and the morning tide gives the reef a real shot.

Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair, but not automatic. Put a good bait down where it belongs and keep the rest of the boat fishing.

Mahi are fair because the Stream is close around Molasses and Alligator. Still, August mahi fishing is not won by staring at empty water. Find life or get back to the reef.

The bay is heat limited. A 90.5 F water temperature at Vaca Key before 6 AM means the early window matters. Fish moving water, keep the handling clean, and do not grind shallow hot water too long.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the easy half-day call. Crocker and Alligator have the stronger snapper look if the current behaves. Molasses gets the outside-water nod because the Stream edge is right there, but the reef still deserves first crack.

Conch is steady if the slick lays out. Tennessee is fishable, but I would only stretch that far if the closer reef line does not set up right or the crew wants the ride.

Today is a good Islamorada reef day with small seas and enough weather around to keep your head up. The ocean is giving you a fair shot. Do the simple things right, watch the clouds, and move when the water gets lazy.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:25 AM EDT. No big flip, but the outside read is a little different from the morning.

Hawk Channel is still holding the same basic shape for this afternoon. East to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. That keeps the reef line in play.

The Straits are not getting the same little easing note from this morning. The midday forecast has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots this afternoon with seas around 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Tonight, northeast to east wind near 10 knots builds to 10 to 15 knots, and seas build from around 2 feet to 2 to 3 feet.

Florida Bay stays small this afternoon with east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots and smooth to a light chop. Tonight the bay breeze comes up, east near 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with bay waters going from a light chop to a light to moderate chop.

So the midday call is pretty simple. Reef still looks good. Outside is fishable, but not quite as soft as the early forecast made it sound. Keep an eye on the clouds, because NOAA is still carrying a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with locally rough wind and seas near storms.

evening addendum, 4:16 PM forecast

NOAA Key West put out the afternoon coastal waters forecast at 4:16 PM EDT. The pattern is still holding. The western edge of the Atlantic high keeps the Keys in east to southeast flow, with the breeze peaking tonight into early Saturday, then backing off again during the afternoon.

The afternoon recap did not change much from the midday call. Reef water stayed the cleaner bet on paper. Hawk Channel had the easier ride, while the Straits were fishable but not quite soft. That is normal late-August water. If the reef current laid out, that was where the smart money went. If the outside showed birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a hard color edge, it was worth a look.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is forecast northeast to east 5 to 10 knots, becoming east and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop to a light to moderate chop. NOAA keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

The Straits get a little more push tonight. NOAA has northeast to east winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is northeast to east 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is still workable for the right boat and crew, but it is not a reason to wander around in the dark looking for something that is not there.

Florida Bay also bumps up tonight. East winds near 10 knots increase to 10 to 15 knots, and bay waters go from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. It is manageable, but the late ride will not feel as slick as the afternoon lull.

saturday outlook

Saturday looks like another workable Islamorada day with the same warning label. NOAA has daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, and locally hazardous winds and seas can stack up near storms. The base forecast is fine. The clouds still get a vote.

zone	saturday call
Florida Bay	east wind near 10 knots, light chop
Hawk Channel	east wind near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, light chop
Straits	east wind near 10 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, seas around 2 feet
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Overall call	good reef window, fair outside, better before storms build

For the reef, Saturday keeps Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Molasses in play. Yellowtail remain the cleanest call if the current behaves. Mangroves are fair around structure. A mutton bait belongs on the deeper edge while the water is moving.

The outside is still conditional. The Straits are not ugly at around 2 feet, with east wave detail at 2 feet and 4 seconds, but mahi and blackfin need signs. Do not burn half the morning on blank water just because the Gulf Stream edge is close on the chart. NOAA still lists the shoreward edge as of August 26 at 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That is useful information, not a guarantee.

Saturday night comes up again, with Hawk Channel east to southeast 10 to 15 knots and seas around 2 feet. The Straits run 2 to 3 feet, with east wave detail 3 feet at 4 seconds. If you want the easier ride, fish the daylight window and keep an eye west and southeast for weather.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:25 AM EDT Friday, August 28, 2026, updated 10:25 AM EDT, and updated again at 4:16 PM EDT. NOAA tide predictions from Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC and NWS observation from Long Key station LONF1 at 5:20 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 26, 2026.