Captain's log, August 29, 2026, light east breeze, reef line still in play

Saturday, August 29. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:24 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets another fishable summer setup.

The Atlantic high is still running the show. East to southeast breeze in the morning, a little northeast to east in the evening, then back toward southeast after midnight. That is a normal late August pattern down here. It gives the reef line enough breeze to lay out a chum slick without turning the ride into punishment.

The warning label is thunderstorms. NOAA has a chance of showers and thunderstorms today and tonight, with locally hazardous winds and seas near storms. The base forecast is fine. The clouds still get a vote.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has east to southeast winds near 10 knots today. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters a light chop. Tonight, northeast to east wind comes up 10 to 15 knots, then becomes east to southeast. Seas run around 2 feet.

The Straits are also fishable on paper. NOAA has east wind near 10 knots today, seas around 2 feet, and wave detail east 2 feet at 4 seconds. Tonight, the Straits build to 2 to 3 feet with the same short period east sea.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east to southeast near 10 knots on Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas 1 to 2 feet, light chop nearshore
Straits	seas around 2 feet, east 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 10 knots, light chop
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Reef buoy	station 41122 southeast of Key Largo, 1.6 ft seas and 87.3 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef morning, fair outside, hot bay water

Long Key reported east southeast wind near 11 knots with gusts near 13 knots at 5:10 AM EDT. Sombrero Key reported southeast wind near 7 knots with gusts near 9 knots at 5:20 AM EDT. That lines up with the forecast pretty clean.

Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed seas near 1.6 feet at 5:30 AM EDT, with a 4 second dominant period. Water temperature there was 87.3 F. That is not rough water, but a 4 second sea is still a little busy if the boat is sitting sideways.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the clean lane today. East to southeast near 10 knots and 1 to 2 feet is good working water for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee.

The reef should be comfortable through the morning. Not glass. Not nasty. Just summer chop with enough movement to keep the slick honest.

If the current runs right, yellowtail should chew. If the chum line hangs under the boat or sweeps across the anchor line, do not get stubborn. Move until the water lays out behind you.

Tonight gets a little firmer. Northeast to east wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast, with seas around 2 feet. That is still manageable for a capable boat, but the easy ride is the daylight window.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair. East wind near 10 knots and seas around 2 feet make the outside possible, especially if the reef edge looks alive.

NOAA lists the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream as of August 26 at 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That puts moving water close to the upper reef line on paper.

Paper is not fish. Birds, weed, bait, flyers, rips, or a clean color edge are worth checking. Blank water is blank water, no matter how close the Stream is on the forecast.

florida bay

Florida Bay has east to southeast wind near 10 knots today, with bay waters a light chop. Tonight it turns northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots, then east to southeast after midnight. Bay waters go light to moderate chop.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 90.3 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot before breakfast. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still possible, but I would rather fish the early moving water than grind shallow hot water after the sun gets mean.

tides for saturday, august 29

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side tide read closest to the Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	4:30 AM EDT	0.157 ft	early low
High	10:24 AM EDT	1.638 ft	morning high
Low	4:48 PM EDT	0.165 ft	afternoon low
High	10:41 PM EDT	1.632 ft	night high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:55 AM EDT	0.963 ft	early high
Low	7:40 AM EDT	0.618 ft	morning low
High	3:23 PM EDT	1.185 ft	afternoon high
Low	8:18 PM EDT	0.593 ft	evening low

For the reef, the push toward the 10:24 AM Whale Harbor high is the best clean morning window. After that, watch the fall toward the 4:48 PM low. If the current keeps stretching the slick, stay on it. If it fades in the heat, pick up and reset before the crew starts staring at dead water.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good mark today. Hawk Channel is 1 to 2 feet, and the Gulf Stream edge was listed 1 NM west northwest of Molasses Reef Light in the latest NOAA read.

That makes Molasses a strong reef first plan with an outside peek if the water shows life. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet with steady chum and clean current. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks up behind the boat.

Do not leave a working yellowtail bite just because blue water is nearby. Let the ocean prove it.

conch reef

Conch should fish comfortably in this forecast. East to southeast wind near 10 knots is enough to move the slick without beating up the ride.

Yellowtail are the first call from 50 to 80 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure and harder bottom. A deeper mutton bait belongs out there, but it should not stop the rest of the boat from working.

davis reef

Davis is the clean half day choice. Short ride, small sea, and enough bottom to make a simple program work.

Fish 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around ledges and structure. Cero mackerel can slide into the chum if the bait is there. Keep it simple and make the tide do the work.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look. The sea state is friendly enough for a proper anchor set, and the morning tide gives it a shot.

Work 55 to 80 feet and pay attention to the current angle. Yellowtail are good if the chum line stretches clean. Muttons are fair deeper with a live bait or fresh cut bait. If the slick curls under the boat, it is time to move.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better all around calls today. NOAA had the Gulf Stream edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so the reef, deeper edge, and outside look are all within reach.

Yellowtail should be good from 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Mangroves are fair where the structure is right. If birds or weed show outside, look at it. If the reef is biting, do not outsmart dinner.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable under the same Hawk Channel forecast. From Islamorada it is a longer push than Davis, Crocker, or Alligator, so I would not run past good water just to add miles.

If you are already sliding that way, fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangrove snapper. The deeper edge gives you a fair mutton shot. Hot water punishes wasted time, so keep the plan tight.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and harder bottom while water moves
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks with bait behind the boat
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early around deeper current edges
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay side moving water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner moving water on the bay side
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail snapper get the best grade today. The reef is small enough to set up right, and the morning water should give the slick a fair chance.

Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair, not automatic. Put a good bait where it belongs and keep the rest of the boat fishing.

Mahi are fair because the Stream is close near Molasses and Alligator. Still, this is not a blind run day. Find life or get back to the reef.

The bay is heat limited. A 90.3 F water temperature at Vaca Key before 6 AM means the early window matters. Fish moving water, handle fish clean, and do not stay shallow too long once the sun gets high.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the easy half day call. Crocker and Alligator have the stronger snapper look if the current behaves. Molasses gets the outside water nod because the Stream edge is close, but the reef still deserves first crack.

Conch is steady if the slick lays out. Tennessee is fishable, but I would only stretch that way if the closer reef line does not set up right or the crew wants the ride.

Today is a good Islamorada reef day with small seas and enough weather around to keep your head on a swivel. Make the morning tide count. If the sky starts building, do not argue with it.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:24 AM EDT Saturday, August 29, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observations from station 41122 southeast of Key Largo at 5:30 AM EDT, Long Key station LONF1 at 5:10 AM EDT, and Sombrero Key station SMKF1 at 5:20 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 26, 2026.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:22 AM EDT. No big curveball in it for the Islamorada side, which is good news if you were already looking at the reef.

Hawk Channel stayed about the same from the morning package. East to southeast wind near 10 knots this afternoon, seas 1 to 2 feet, nearshore waters a light chop. Tonight still comes up northeast to east 10 to 15 knots before sliding back east to southeast, with seas around 2 feet.

The Straits also held steady. NOAA still has east wind near 10 knots this afternoon with seas around 2 feet, wave detail east 2 feet at 4 seconds. Tonight is the bump, 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 3 feet.

Florida Bay did not get worse either. East to southeast near 10 knots this afternoon and light chop. Tonight goes northeast to east 10 to 15 knots, then east to southeast after midnight, with light to moderate chop.

So the midday read is mostly confirmation, not a warning shot. The fishable water is still there. The only thing that has not changed is the thunderstorm rule. NOAA kept a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the zones, and any storm can kick up locally hazardous wind and seas fast. Watch the sky, watch the radar, and do not let a pretty base forecast talk you into ignoring a black cloud.

Midday source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:22 AM EDT Saturday, August 29, 2026.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:15 PM EDT, and it kept the same basic story for Islamorada. The Atlantic high is still parked in charge. East to southeast breeze overnight and in the morning, then a little more northeast to east late afternoon and evening. That is normal summer water, with one catch. Deep moisture is still around, so showers and thunderstorms stay in the forecast.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is east wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. The Straits are a little bumpier, east wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. NOAA lists the wave detail as east 3 feet at 4 seconds. That short period is the part you feel. It is not a giant sea, but it can make the outside ride a little square if you are trying to run fast or sit sideways.

Florida Bay tonight is east wind 10 to 15 knots with bay waters a light to moderate chop. Bayside and gulfside waters from Craig Key west are around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. So the bay and backcountry stay workable, but the evening storm rule still matters. Any thunderstorm can make its own bad idea in a hurry.

The afternoon call was pretty simple. Reef water stayed the best bet. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and the close Islamorada reef line all made more sense than blind running outside unless somebody found birds, weed, bait, or a hard edge. With the Straits holding 2 to 3 feet tonight, I would rather protect the ride and fish what the current gives you.

tomorrow’s outlook

Sunday looks fishable, especially if the morning sky behaves. NOAA has Hawk Channel east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. That is a good reef setup on paper. Yellowtail, mangrove snapper, and a deeper mutton bait all stay in the conversation if the current lays out clean.

The Straits improve some for Sunday. East wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 2 feet, and wave detail east 2 feet at 5 seconds. That is better than tonight, but I still would not make it a hero run just because the number looks friendly. Look for life first. Birds, flyers, scattered weed, or a color change can make it worth the look. Empty blue water can burn half a day before you know it.

Florida Bay gets east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots Sunday with smooth to light chop. Good enough for an early bay window before the heat settles in. NOAA keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the waters, and the bayside and gulfside zones west of Craig Key have showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. So tomorrow is not a shutout. It is a pick your window day, with the reef still wearing the captain’s hat.

Evening source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:15 PM EDT Saturday, August 29, 2026.