Captain's log, August 30, 2026, light east breeze, reef water still fishable

Sunday, August 30. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:25 AM EDT, and the Islamorada side gets another workable summer morning with storms still holding the wild card.

The Atlantic high is still on the western edge of the Keys pattern. That means east to southeast breeze this morning, easing some through the day, then coming back east tonight. The base forecast is not ugly. The reef line is fishable. But the air is wet, and NOAA keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the waters.

That part matters more than the pretty numbers. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected near thunderstorm activity. A 2 foot morning can turn rude quick under a black cloud.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots today, becoming east and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas start 2 to 3 feet, then settle to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from light to moderate chop down to smooth to light chop.

The Straits are a little busier, but not closed. NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming east near 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is short summer water, so expect some bump if you run outside early.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, easing to 5 to 10 on Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Straits	seas around 3 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet
Florida Bay	light to moderate chop early, smooth to light chop later
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Reef buoy	station 41122 southeast of Key Largo, 2.3 ft seas and 86.4 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
Overall call	fair early, good reef window if storms stay clear

Long Key reported southeast wind near 11 knots with gusts near 13 knots at 5:20 AM EDT. Sombrero Key reported east southeast wind near 11 knots with gusts near 14 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 2.3 foot seas at 5:30 AM EDT with a short 3 second period and 86.4 F water.

Those readings match the forecast well enough. It is not a slick calm postcard morning. It is fishable Keys water, with enough breeze to build a chum line and enough sea to remind you to anchor right.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the best lane today. The morning starts a little bumpy at 2 to 3 feet, then NOAA brings it down to 1 to 2 feet as the wind eases.

That gives Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all a fair shot. The key is timing. If the morning sea is still square, tuck in and let it settle. If the current is right, do not waste the good part of the tide waiting for perfect.

East to southeast wind is fine for the reef. It should let the slick stretch instead of falling under the boat. If the current fights the wind, pick up and move. Hot water and dead chum do not improve with patience.

Tonight, NOAA has northeast to east wind near 10 knots becoming east and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Hawk Channel seas build back toward around 2 feet. Still manageable, but the cleaner working water is today before the late bump and evening storms.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair. Seas around 3 feet early, easing to 2 to 3 feet, with east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That period is short. It can be fishable and still be annoying, especially if the boat sits sideways or the crew is green.

NOAA lists the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream as of August 26 at 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That puts moving water close to the upper reef line on paper.

Paper only gets you pointed. Birds, weed, flyers, bait showers, or a clean color edge get the rods out. If the outside looks blank, come back to the reef and make dinner happen.

florida bay

Florida Bay has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, dropping to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters start light to moderate chop, then ease to smooth to light chop.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 88.9 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is still hot before sunrise gets any real work done. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are possible, but the early moving water is the play. Once the shallows cook, it turns into a patience test with a sunburn attached.

tides for sunday, august 30

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side tide read closest to the Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	5:07 AM EDT	0.097 ft	early low
High	11:06 AM EDT	1.667 ft	late morning high
Low	5:28 PM EDT	0.202 ft	afternoon low
High	11:18 PM EDT	1.618 ft	night high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:43 AM EDT	1.031 ft	early high
Low	8:28 AM EDT	0.495 ft	morning low
High	4:15 PM EDT	1.138 ft	afternoon high
Low	8:55 PM EDT	0.641 ft	evening low

For the reef, the cleanest setup is the push toward the 11:06 AM Whale Harbor high. If the current runs and the sky stays honest, that is where I would spend the morning. After lunch, watch the fall toward the 5:28 PM low. If the slick gets lazy or swings ugly, move before the bite dies all the way.

On the bay side, the morning low at 8:28 AM and the push toward the 4:15 PM high give you moving water. I still like the early part better. The water temperature says the fish are going to want clean flow and less heat.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses is fair to good today. It gets the best outside-water argument because NOAA had the Gulf Stream edge 1 NM west northwest of Molasses Reef Light in the latest read.

That does not mean leave a biting reef for empty blue water. It means start with a snapper plan, then look outside if the water has signs of life.

Fish 45 to 75 feet for yellowtail. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel can show if bait stacks behind the boat. With the sea starting 2 to 3 feet, set the anchor clean and keep the cockpit working.

conch reef

Conch should be fishable once the morning chop settles. East to southeast wind can work fine here if the current stretches down the line.

Yellowtail are the first call in 50 to 80 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure and harder bottom. A deeper mutton bait belongs out there, but the main bite is still chum, patience, and moving water.

If the slick curls or stalls, do not marry the spot. Conch gives you room to reset without turning the whole trip into a boat ride.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half day call. Short ride, plenty of bottom, and it keeps you close if storms start building over the island chain.

Fish 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around ledges. Cero mackerel are fair if the bait is around. It is not the sexiest plan on the chart, but it is the kind of plan that puts fillets in the box.

crocker reef

Crocker has a solid snapper look today. The tide toward the late morning high should give it a window, and the wind should lay the slick out if the current behaves.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are good when the chum line stretches clean. Mutton snapper are fair deeper with live bait or fresh cut bait. If the current angle gets weird, slide until the boat fishes right.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better all around calls. NOAA had the Gulf Stream edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so you can fish the reef and still keep an eye outside.

Yellowtail should be good from 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair where the structure has life on it. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. If birds or weed show beyond the light, take a look. If the reef is chewing, stay put and let the fish make you look smart.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but I would not run past good water just to get there. From Islamorada, it is a stretch compared with Davis, Crocker, and Alligator.

If you are already sliding that way, fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangrove snapper. The deeper edge gives you a fair mutton shot. Keep the plan tight, because hot water punishes wasted time.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with chum and clean current
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges, structure, and harder bottom while water moves
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks with bait behind the boat
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early deeper current edge, especially if bait is present
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay side moving water before the shallows heat up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay water with flow
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail snapper get the best grade. The reef forecast gives enough wind to fish, and the late morning tide should help if the current lines up.

Mangroves are fair, especially around structure. Muttons are fair, but do not build the whole day around one hero bait. Fish the boat while that deeper bait soaks.

Mahi are fair because the Stream is close near Molasses and Alligator. Still, this is not a blind-run forecast. Three feet at 5 seconds is enough to make a long empty hunt feel longer. Find life first.

The bay species are heat limited. Vaca Key water at 88.9 F before 6 AM tells the story. Fish early flow, handle fish clean, and do not camp in shallow hot water once the sun gets up.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the easy half day pick if you want to keep it simple. Crocker and Alligator have the stronger snapper look if the current behaves. Molasses gets the outside-water nod, but only if the ocean shows something worth chasing.

Conch is steady if the slick lays out. Tennessee is fishable, but I would rather make closer good water pay before adding miles.

Today is a fair to good Islamorada reef day. Not slick calm. Not a washout. The morning tide is useful, the seas should ease, and the reef should give you a chance at yellowtail with mangroves and muttons in the mix. Watch the sky like it owes you money.

midday addendum, 10:35 AM NOAA update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:35 AM EDT. The morning call still holds, but the middle of the day looks a little cleaner inshore than the first read.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile is now east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas are listed at 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters starting light to moderate chop and becoming smooth to light chop late. That is an improvement from the morning wording, which had Hawk Channel starting at 2 to 3 feet before settling.

The Straits did not change much. NOAA has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet, wave detail east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is still fishable for the right crew, but it is short-period water. If you are hunting outside, earn the run with birds, weed, bait, or a color change. Do not just point the bow at empty blue and hope the ocean feels generous.

Florida Bay eased on paper too. The midday forecast has east to southeast wind near 10 knots and bay waters a light chop this afternoon. Earlier it was 10 to 15 knots with light to moderate chop before easing. Good news for the backcountry side, but the heat is still the heat.

The thunderstorm language stayed in place across the Keys waters. Chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, with locally hazardous winds and seas near storms. That is the part you respect even when the reef looks friendly.

So the update is simple. Reef water improved some since the early forecast, especially in Hawk Channel. The Straits are still bumpy enough to pick your crew and your reason. Keep one eye on the sky and do not let a pretty lull talk you into ignoring a dark cloud.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecasts FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:25 AM EDT and 10:35 AM EDT Sunday, August 30, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observations from station 41122 southeast of Key Largo at 5:30 AM EDT, Long Key station LONF1 at 5:20 AM EDT, and Sombrero Key station SMKF1 at 5:40 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 26, 2026.

evening addendum

As of this evening, the latest NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast on the NDBC feed is still the 10:35 AM EDT package. No fresh 4 PM coastal waters forecast was posted there by the 9:00 PM UTC check, so I am not going to pretend otherwise.

The afternoon stayed in the same lane the midday update gave us. Hawk Channel was the better working water, with NOAA holding it at east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters easing from a light to moderate chop to smooth to a light chop late. That is fishable reef water if the current gives you a clean slick.

The Straits were still the place to be picky. NOAA kept east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet and an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds for the afternoon. That short period is the part that makes a small sea feel busy. I would not make a blind outside run on that. Birds, weed, bait, or a good color edge can earn it. Empty water does not.

Tonight, Hawk Channel is east wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. The Straits hold east wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. NOAA lists the wave detail as east 3 feet at 4 seconds. Florida Bay stays east near 10 knots with a light chop. That is all manageable on paper, but the thunderstorm line is still there across the waters. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected near storms, and that is the part that can turn a calm cockpit into a mess fast.

tomorrow’s outlook

Monday looks usable, especially for reef trips. NOAA has Hawk Channel east wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. That is a good setup for yellowtail if the chum line stretches and the fish do not make you beg for it.

The Straits back down some Monday, with east wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and wave detail east 2 feet at 4 seconds. Better than tonight, but still short-period summer water. I would look outside only if the surface gives you a real reason.

Florida Bay gets east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots Monday with smooth to light chop. Good enough for an early bay window, but the hot water has not gone anywhere. Fish moving water, keep the handling clean, and do not camp in dead shallow water after the sun gets high.

The main rule for tomorrow is the same as today. The base forecast is fishable. The storms decide how much rope you really get. If the sky behaves, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and the close Islamorada reef line should all be in play.

Evening source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:35 AM EDT Sunday, August 30, 2026, latest available on the NDBC feed and NWS API at the 9:00 PM UTC check.