Captain's log, August 31, 2026, light east wind and small reef seas

Monday, August 31. NOAA Key West put out the coastal waters forecast at 4:28 AM EDT, and this is one of those late summer mornings where the numbers look friendly but the sky still gets a vote.

The Atlantic high is still running the show around the Keys. Breeze is light, mainly east to southeast early, then backing more northeast to east later in the day. That is a workable setup for the Islamorada reef line. The only real catch is the same one we have been dealing with, deep moisture across the region and daily shots at showers and thunderstorms.

So yes, the base forecast is good. But keep the radar handy. NOAA is still calling for locally hazardous winds and seas near thunderstorm activity. A one foot reef sea does not mean much if you let a black cloud walk up on you.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has east winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast to east and decreasing near 5 knots this afternoon. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop to smooth.

The Straits are not bad either. NOAA has east wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast to east. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with wave detail east 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is still a short summer period, but with light wind it is not the ugly kind of short.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east 5 to 10 knots, easing near 5 in Hawk Channel this afternoon
Hawk Channel	1 to 2 feet, subsiding around 1 foot
Straits	1 to 2 feet, east 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	smooth to a light chop early, becoming smooth
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Reef buoy	station 41122 southeast of Key Largo, 2.0 ft seas and 86.5 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef window, fair outside if the sky behaves

Long Key reported east northeast wind near 6 knots with gusts near 8 knots at 4:50 AM EDT. Sombrero Key reported east wind near 5 knots with gusts near 6 knots at 5:00 AM EDT. Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 2.0 foot seas at 5:30 AM EDT with a 5 second dominant period and 86.5 F water.

That matches the forecast. Light air, small sea, enough water moving around the reef to make a plan. It is not winter-clean. It is August-clean, which means nice until the clouds get ideas.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the best lane today. Seas start 1 to 2 feet and lay down toward around 1 foot as the breeze eases. That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all in play if the current gives you a clean slick.

East wind at 5 to 10 knots is enough to fish without turning the cockpit into a washing machine. If it drops near 5 knots this afternoon, the boat may sit soft on the hook, so pay attention to current more than wind direction. Chum needs to leave the transom and travel. If it piles up under the boat, you are feeding fish you are not catching.

Tonight stays friendly on paper. NOAA has northeast to east wind near 5 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Hawk Channel seas hold around 1 foot. Still, the thunderstorm line stays in the forecast, so do not let a calm evening make you lazy.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair to good for the right crew. Seas are 1 to 2 feet with east 2 feet at 4 seconds. That is short, but it is not much height.

NOAA lists the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream as of August 26 at 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That puts moving water close to the upper reef line on paper.

Paper is not a bite. Birds, weed, flyers, bait showers, or a hard color edge make the outside worth a look. If the surface looks dead, do not burn half the day proving it.

florida bay

Florida Bay gets east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, decreasing near 5 knots, with bay waters smooth to a light chop becoming smooth. That is about as friendly as late August gives you.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 88.0 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before the sun gets mean. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon are still possible, but the early moving water matters. Once the shallows bake, handle fish clean and do not overstay dead water.

tides for monday, august 31

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side tide read closest to the Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	5:46 AM EDT	0.063 ft	early low
High	11:49 AM EDT	1.670 ft	late morning high
Low	6:10 PM EDT	0.264 ft	evening low
High	11:57 PM EDT	1.589 ft	night high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	4:04 AM EDT	1.107 ft	early high
Low	9:18 AM EDT	0.358 ft	morning low
High	5:05 PM EDT	1.049 ft	afternoon high
Low	9:32 PM EDT	0.678 ft	night low

For the reef, I like the push toward the 11:49 AM Whale Harbor high. That gives the morning a real shot if the current lines up with the wind. After lunch, the fall toward the 6:10 PM low can still fish, but watch for lazy current if the wind drops too much.

On the bay side, the low at 9:18 AM and the push toward the 5:05 PM high give you water movement. The early part is cleaner for sight fishing. Hot water does not reward waiting around.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses is good today if the current behaves. The Gulf Stream edge was listed 1 NM west northwest of Molasses Reef Light in the latest NOAA Key West read, so the outside-water argument is strong here.

Start with yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel can show in the chum if the bait is thick. If you see birds or a color edge outside, take a look, but do not leave biting bottom for empty blue water.

conch reef

Conch should be steady with this wind. Light east flow usually gives you enough shape to the slick without beating up the ride.

Fish 50 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around harder bottom and structure. A deeper mutton bait is worth soaking, but the main money is a clean chum line and enough current to pull fish up.

davis reef

Davis is the easy half day call. Short run, good bottom, close enough to duck in if the weather starts building over the island chain.

Work 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks behind the boat. If the crew wants action over mileage, Davis makes sense today.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look. The late morning high should give it a useful window, and the small sea makes anchoring less dramatic than it has been on bumpier days.

Fish 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the first call. Muttons are fair deeper with live bait or fresh cut bait. If the slick swings wrong, reset instead of wishing the spot into shape.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better all around picks. NOAA had the Gulf Stream edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so you can fish the reef and keep one eye outside.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair where the structure has life. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. If the outside shows birds, weed, or bait, it is worth a short look. If not, stay with the reef and make dinner.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today, but I would not run past good water just to say I ran west. From Islamorada, Davis, Crocker, and Alligator are the cleaner first choices.

If you are already sliding that way, fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangrove snapper. The deeper edge gives a fair mutton shot. Keep the plan tight, because the heat will punish wasted time.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 75 ft with chum and clean current
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges, structure, and harder bottom while water moves
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	active chum slicks with bait behind the boat
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early deeper current edge, especially near bait
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay side moving water before the shallows heat up
Permit	poor to fair	clean bay water with flow
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The reef sea is small, the wind is light, and the tide gives you a late morning push. That is enough to build a good day if the slick stretches.

Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair, but do not build the whole trip around one big bait sitting quiet. Fish the boat while it soaks.

Mahi are fair because the Stream is close near Molasses and Alligator. Still, this is a look-before-you-run forecast. Find life first. A small sea makes it tempting to wander, but empty water is still empty water.

The bay species are heat limited. Vaca Key water at 88.0 F before 6 AM tells the story. Early water movement is the play, then get out of the dead heat.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the simple half day move. Crocker and Alligator have the better snapper look if the current behaves. Molasses gets the outside-water nod, but only if the ocean shows you something worth chasing.

Conch is steady. Tennessee is fishable, just not my first mile today from Islamorada.

This is a good Islamorada reef day with the usual August warning label. Light wind, small seas, hot water, and storms in the forecast. Go early, fish moving water, and keep one eye on the sky like it owes you money.

midday addendum, 10:29 AM NOAA update

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:29 AM EDT. No big swing from the morning package, which is good news if you already built the day around the reef.

Hawk Channel is still the cleanest lane. NOAA keeps east wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast to east and easing near 5 knots. Seas are still 1 to 2 feet, subsiding around 1 foot, with nearshore waters going smooth this afternoon. That is basically the same call we had before daylight, just with a little more confidence that the breeze is not trying to get mean.

The Straits did not change much either. East wind 5 to 10 knots becomes northeast to east, seas stay 1 to 2 feet, and the wave detail holds east 2 feet at 4 seconds. Short period, small height. Fine for the right crew if the sky stays honest.

Florida Bay remains smooth to a light chop, becoming smooth as east to southeast wind drops near 5 knots. The bay side is friendly on paper, but that 88.0 F Vaca Key water from this morning still matters. Fish the moving water, handle them quick, and do not sit in hot dead water pretending patience is a plan.

The warning label is unchanged. NOAA still has a chance of showers and thunderstorms across Florida Bay, Hawk Channel, and the Straits. The synopsis still says locally hazardous winds and seas can happen near thunderstorm activity. So the update is mostly steady, light wind and small seas, with the same August rule. Watch the radar like it is part of the crew.

evening addendum, 4:34 PM NOAA update

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast again at 4:34 PM EDT, and the afternoon did not pull the rug out from under the plan. The Atlantic high is still on the wheel. Breeze keeps peaking and lulling, with east to southeast flow overnight and in the morning, then a northeast to east bend late afternoon and evening.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is still easy enough on paper. NOAA has northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east to southeast, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are northeast to east near 10 knots becoming east, seas 1 to 2 feet, with northeast to east wave detail 2 feet at 4 seconds.

That is a small sea, but it is still August. NOAA kept a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, and the synopsis still says locally hazardous winds and seas can show up near thunderstorm activity. The afternoon recap is simple: the base conditions stayed fishable, but the sky stayed in charge.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, looks like another light-wind day if the storms behave. Hawk Channel gets east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to northeast and decreasing near 5 knots. Seas run around 1 foot. Nearshore waters start smooth to a light chop, then become smooth.

The Straits look workable too. NOAA has east wind 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and east wave detail 1 foot at 4 seconds. That is not a big ocean forecast. It is a pick-your-window forecast.

I would still start on the reef. Davis, Crocker, and Alligator make the most sense from Islamorada if the current gives you a clean chum line. Molasses gets a look if the outside edge has birds, bait, weed, or color worth chasing. If it looks empty, do not donate fuel to blue water.

Florida Bay is quiet again Tuesday with east to southeast wind near 5 knots and smooth bay waters. Good for a morning shot, but that hot late-summer water means early movement matters. Once the flats go still and cooked, move along.

Same call for Tuesday as today: go early, fish moving water, keep the radar open, and do not trust a pretty horizon for too long.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:28 AM EDT, refreshed at 10:29 AM EDT, and refreshed again at 4:34 PM EDT Monday, August 31, 2026. NOAA tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NDBC observations from station 41122 southeast of Key Largo at 5:30 AM EDT, Long Key station LONF1 at 4:50 AM EDT, and Sombrero Key station SMKF1 at 5:00 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of August 26, 2026.